William Rees-Mogg
Enter our Snapshots of Summer photography competition
Gordon Brown is the most unpopular politician in Britain. That is the Labour Party’s problem. The party is facing a landslide defeat in the local government and Scottish Parliament elections. That is Mr Brown’s problem.
In March, YouGov conducted an important but little-noted survey of the relative popularity of 21 British politicians. Respondents were asked: “Which of the following politicians do you feel generally negative about?” Obviously, prominent politicians are likely to get a worse score than those who are not yet well known. The most unpopular seven are all well known. Mr Brown had the worst score of all: 57 per cent said they felt “generally negative” about him. Tony Blair scored 54.9 per cent; John Reid 36.9 per cent; Patricia Hewitt 36.4 per cent; Jack Straw, 34 per cent. Then came the two opposition leaders, David Cameron, 32.8 per cent, and Sir Menzies Campbell, 29.7 per cent.
These are bad figures for Mr Brown. General elections have become increasingly presidential in character, with the public perception of party leaders having a decisive influence. One does not have to share the negative view of Mr Brown to see that he will need to improve it before the next election.
There is one finding that Labour strategists must find particularly disturbing. The worst figure for any of the 21 politicians in any of eight categories by gender, age or social class, is the percentage of 55-year-olds and over who feel generally negative about Mr Brown: that is 66.2 per cent.
The 55-year-old category is particularly important because this is the age group most likely to vote. Indeed it accounts for close to half of all actual voters. It is also significant because its members are pensioners or close to pensionable age. Their resentment at the Chancellor’s stealth tax on pensions must be one of the reasons why they feel so strongly negative about him.
Almost all the polls suggest that the Labour Party does face an extremely bad result this week. Indeed that is already a certainty in many councils in the West Country. In the unitary authority of Bath and North East Somerset, the Conservatives have nominated 67 candidates and the Liberal Democrats 63, but Labour only 34. There is a similar scarcity of Labour candidates for other Somerset councils. The party’s widespread failure to find candidates suggests that Labour morale has already collapsed in the South West.
Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, of Plymouth University, are the leading analysts of local government elections. Their analysis for The Sunday Times expects Labour to win only 24 per cent of the vote in local government elections, 6 per cent down on 2003, the last year that these seats were fought. That would probably be a worse result than 1983, when Michael Foot was leader.
In the elections for the Welsh Assembly, Labour is still expected to remain the largest party, but to lose seats to the minority parties, including Plaid Cymru, the Welsh Nationalists. In Scotland, if the polls are right, Labour faces the disaster of an outright defeat, with the Scottish National Party taking over as the largest party, and the formidable opposition skills of Alex Salmond, who is, apart from Mr Brown, the outstanding Scottish politician of his generation. For Labour to lose its heartland of Scotland, where it has been the majority party since the late 1950s, would be a shattering blow to its morale. It would be particularly damaging to Mr Brown himself.
Mr Brown is a very intelligent political strategist who should never be underrated. He has to try to turn round both his personal reputation and his party’s position. His first hundred days will be a critical period, after Mr Blair’s unforgivable delay in handing over the leadership. The last months of Mr Blair’s leadership have done great damage to Labour.
Mr Brown does have the limitations of his own legacy, however. He cannot suddenly switch domestic policy. For the past ten years he has used his position at the Treasury to control all the domestic policies of the Labour Government. He has in effect been Mr Blair’s Prime Minister. He can hardly turn to the country and say: “I’ve got everything wrong for the past ten years, so now I am going to change all Labour’s policies.” Mr Brown has taken full credit for Labour’s successes; he cannot avoid taking responsibility for Labour’s failures. In particular, he has claimed that there would never again be boom and bust under Labour. He will continue to get credit if the economy performs well, but he cannot avoid the blame if – as seems likely – inflation reemerges and interest rates have to be raised further.
In foreign affairs there are two big issues on which Mr Brown is free to change policy and will have to make decisions. One is Iraq and the other is Europe. On Iraq, he has to decide whether to stick with the Bush-Blair strategy, which is unpopular both in Britain and the United States, or move towards the Democrats’ strategy in Congress. That could involve a popular decision to accelerate the planned withdrawal of British troops from Iraq. The US presidential election is in November next year. Mr Brown may choose to align himself with the next president if he expects the Democrats to win.
Mr Blair – ridiculous as that seems – will still be attending the Berlin summit on June 21 as Prime Minister to discuss Angela Merkel’s redraft of a European constitution. However, he cannot tie his successor’s hands or those of Parliament. If Mr Brown frees himself from the European obsession, he will have nothing to do with the Merkel constitution, but will move towards the popular policy of renegotiation of Britain’s relationship with Europe.
Mr Brown’s decisions on Iraq and Europe could decide the next election.
William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Good site! Thank you! Online pharmacy - <a href=http://www.genericlevitra.happyhost.org>Generic levitra</a>,
[url=http://www.genericlevitra.happyhost.org]Generic levitra[/url].
Generic levitra, London,
To Simon Mawdsley
I have never failed to vote ever but my vote has never mattered as I live in a staunchly Tory area. My original letter said nothing about political representation either. Perhaps you are equating "low-paid" with "stupid, feckless and lazy". If so that says more about you than me!
Joy, Wiltshire,
Tony Blair came to power with the the highest of expectations from the British public. He had no way to go but down. Gordon Brown will come to power with the lowest of expectations, and perhaps he will have no way to go but up!
Mark, London, UK
Does anyone still believe their vote will change anything? It won't, because no politician is willing to listen to the people. The parties only want POWER at any cost.
Cameron is merely a younger Bliar, with the same policies in different words.
Brown will only follow his masters policies and take us fully into Europe.
A great man once said "Those who are not willing to die for freedom don't deserve any".
We have allowed our elected leaders to take away our freedoms like stealth taxes.
The next elections Local this month and the General sometime in 2009 will be the last we have where we can change anything, after that Europe will control us.
Vote for the smaller parties and not our three main ones.
Howard Essex
Howard Scott, Basildon, , England
I don't think Brown can possibly change his image, we have observed him & his antics for years, we know his little foibles [ & his big ones ] we know how he operates , with some ambiguity & a good measure of stealth. !
He should never have given up Prudence , she was much better for him.
Any changes he tries to make will be an obvious ploy , to con us , into thinking he has changed but we will know it's purely to win votes.
Poor Gordon, it does look as though he will finally be PM , but, he must know it will be a very brief stint at number 10.
Maggie Millington, Brittany, France
So it's true. No one makes it from chancellor of the exchequer to prime-minister.
Haven't they whatched «Yes, minister»?
:-)
Outsider, Lisbon,
Brown's only two good decisions in ten years were two of his earliest.
1. To stick to the previous Conservative Governments spending plans for two years.
2. To give the Bank of England independence.
All his other decisions are collectively becoming an umitigating disaster.
Martin, London, England
Labour will not have a leadership election as this would show the cracks in the Labour Party.Their morale is at rock bottom as can be seen by the number of Labour candidates at the local elections has dropped.
Brown will hang on long as possible as,he,like Blair wants a legacy.So far they will have succeded in making Labour unelectable for a number of years.
I cannot see how he can redeem himself and his Party.History will not be kind to him or Blair.
Nigel Wheatcroft, wimbledon, uk
"renegotiation of Britains relationship with Europe"
What dribble is that? Let's get real.. Brown may be unpopular but he ain't stupid.
This country needs less US and More EU.
Now if Brown gave us the euro before gracefully departing, that would be a real coup!
Peter GODDARD, Epsom, England, EU
I dont think Tony blair or the labour party should allow such an undemocratic transition of one PM to his chancelor! this is a job where millions of people are put at risk(foreign policy, pension etc etc) this is not a Burking King job offer that need to be filled....and quiet frankly Mr Brown should stick and work harder on his figures as he himself confessed to fellow students that he was bad in maths, and he need to improve his personality and also his public speech!Sorry Mr Brown........
said Issaad, London, england,Uk
If Mr Brown takes over from Tony Blair, he will be severely criticised for the next 2 years for taking over power without winning a leadership challenge and then the Labour party will be held accountable at the next election both for his failings as chancellor as well as for for Tony Blair's failings on Iraq and the war on terror (plus all the other sideshows, John Prescott, cash for peerages etc). The Labour Party will be thumped at the polls and Brown will go down in history as one of the least successful Prime Ministers of all time. I can't understand why he would want to take over now?
Jack Read, Georgetown, Guyana
Every aspect of British life is worse because of Brown: £3,500 more tax pa taken from the average family, and more from small business and money poured to no good effect into an unreconstructed welfare system that positively encourages welfare dependency and civil service inefficiency.
The UK is a poorer, dumbed-down, nastier, dirtier and more dangerous place to live in after the 'Ten Ruinous Years'
Pat Patrea, London,
"Renegotiation of Britains relationship with Europe"
What twoddle!
Brown maybe unpopular, but he is no fool, so he will hopefully embrace Europe where Blair has only played lip service.
What England (and Scotland?) needs now is LESS US and MORE EU!
Peter GODDARD, Epsom, England, EU
I would suggest that cynical groundwork is already being done to prepare for some Brown 'spectaculars' during the first 100 days. Remember those Treasury multi-billion pound contingencies in the 2012 budget proposals and the surprise 17.5% VAT? That's about £4 billion that can appear to be slashed 'ruthlessly' from the budget when the new PM takes charge. What other little tricks are up the sleeve one wonders?
Charles, London, England
At the last election Gordon Brown was credited with giving Labour another win at the polls. Mr Blair was unable to do the job without the Chancellor being at his side. Gordon, the great manipulator was himself out manipulated by the Prime Minister. The last ten years of New Labour has been about power, influence and ambition. No sign of the promised land brought to us by the Third Way.
Have we seen the "end to boom and bust" perhaps ? A "boom" for Mr Blair maybe - but "bust" for Mr Brown !
DavidL, Swindon, Wiltshire
Gordon Brown always disappears from view at any time of problems for Labour. Note his almost total lack of comments over the past four years on the Iraq war. But always remeber who the first signatory to the parliamentry motion to go to war was - Gordon Brown!!
Abnd who could EVER forget his spiteful raid on pension funds. His cowardice is exposed - if he had ruined the pension aspirations of public sector workers as he has for private sector workers, the winter of discontent would look like paradise.
Jim Taylor, Loughborough, England
There is no labour candidate in my electroal ward either, the Runtons in Norfolk. And good riddance to them too.
Neil Murphy, Cromer,
I cannot believe this guy will be allowed to takeover without question. Its crazy.
Johann, City of London,
Please explain 'the European obsession'.
I observe many have this affliction. It is something to do with everything being the EU's fault is it not?
Bob, London,
The Labour Party is worn out. Time to put the new, fresh leadership of the Conservatives in office, and have a government that may curve public spending, and not issue new laws and "initiatives" every 5 minutes.
William Hagerup, London,
It seems unlikely that Gordon Brown will charge the Brussels citadel to court UK voters as Rees Mogg quaintly suggests. If Brown goes eurosceptic he is assured of a media programme of character assassination such as that enjoyed by IDS, Thatcher and all those who have dared to stand against 'ever closer union'. Brown knows who controls British media (as revealed in Lance Price's Spin Doctor's Diary), as does David Cameron even if William Rees Mogg apparently does not.
Henry Curteis, Makati, Philippines
I agree with Joy - Brown has betrayed the lower paid despite all his boasts to the contrary - it is now harder to be yound and starting off or old in Britain than ever befotre thanks to this awful shifty insincere man.
Alla Lee, London, UK
I think Gordon Brown knows full well that he is not going to win the next General Election. He is obviously unhappy that Tony Blair broke their Granita agreement and thereby denied him time at the crease. However, coming in as 1tth man he will try to hit a few sixes before he is bowled out. I therefore expect him to do some dramatic (and stupid) things during the two years or so that he is Prime Minister. One of these might well be to sign a new European Treaty (in other words Constitution) without holding a referendum first. Another may be to increase income tax to 50% for all those earning above a certain figure: say £40,000. The big idea will be to take as much ground as possible for socialism so that having bowled Labour out, the next government (Conserevative or coalition) will be faced with a tough slog to get back to even the score. Just wait and see.
Adrian Gilbert, Tonbridge, England
At a public speaking level he is often incomprehensible, always talking to people on the left of the audience. He seldom makes eye contact and provides half information.
Behind the scenes he is totally immovable and a non-team player from the dozens of news articles noting this and including terms like dictatorial. He will not cooperate with the PM, he cannot even dress formally for dinner with heads of state, every element of domestic activity is being controlled by his office. Few of the ministries defined for the job are allowed action without Treasury say so. Hardly the democratic culture that Jack Straw was discussing in yesterday's Sunday Times.
The very lack of distinction and diversity in local government has been lost through central government manipulation. Much comes back to a control and lack of freedom developed by George Brown.
If he has created this situation as Chancellor what prospects for democratic and creative government have we if he becomes prime minister?
Clive, weston-super-mare,
If Brown wins the leadership election without any fight whatsoever then he does not deserve to be leader of this great nation. He will neither deserve the respect that goes with it all and as far as I am concerned we will be living in a pseudo-dictatorship.
It will make the John Major years look like heaven on earth.
ian payne, LICHFIELD, STAFFS
In politics there are few happy endings and much ignominies.
Be alert to this fact Mr Brown ?
Is it worth it ?
Ian, singapore, singapore
Only 36.4% negative about Patricia Hewitt? Something fishy about this survey!
Alec, Carcassonne, France
Since the day Labour has come to power, I have not heard anything on Gordon's view on Foreign Policy, Role of State in meeting challenges of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) though he communicates to us through stealth taxation, How we as a nation needs to build ourselves for the future generation. Somehow, in this Labour dynastic changeover, we will be lumbered with Gordon as and when Tony wishes to retire. I was taught and always thought that the orgins of Parliament Democracy and Free Society which we live in rests on 3 tenets of Equality, Justice and Rule of Law. So, we should expect nothing from Gordon, other than his decleration of the General Election, so that we can make use of the 3 tenets of Parliament Democracy and Free Society by choosing a new government.
Gopal Sharma, Loughborough, England
As a small business, I have gone from paying 10% in corporation tax to 18% and now Gordon Brown has seen fit to raise my corporation tax to 22%. This is money that desperately needs to be re-invested back into the business but will instead be poured into the black hole of Brown's policies.
As a result, the business will have to take a loan and will have to defer employing any more individuals indefintitely. I will not be voting for Labour.
Chantel, Bristol, UK
Poor Mr Brown for the urge to become PM entices him to inherit a big mess- his own mess now in name and substance !
What price Mr Brown?
Ian, singapore, singapore
Following the last budjet changes my wife who is a pensioner will next year become a 20% tax payer as apposed to a 10% tax payer at present simple because she is under 65 years of age.
This goverment advises women of 60 years of age that if they choose to do so they may retire at 60 years of age and claim their retirement pension .His lastest move means that those relying on their state pension and a small company pesion like my wife will face higher taxation until they reach 65.
Is my wife supposed to thank Brown for this, no wonder we read of the rich getting richer under this goverment it's the poor and middle classes who have paid the price under Brown.
Dave, Mold, Flintshire
Brown will never be forgiven for raiding the pension system!
Although the timescales of pensions allow him to raid them without an immediate hue and cry the same timescales inevitably mean the taste of this abysmal decision will linger on the financial tongue for a generation or more of many hard working non state funded pensioners!
Jim Golightly, Prudhoe, England
Well lets look at Brown's record besides the pension mess
Over Million jobs lost in Manufacture ,which has resulted in a trade deficit of over 80 Billion in 2006 and getting wider.
A tax system which is becoming more complicated and Billions wasted on unreformed public service..
In effect the Country is borrowing and selling its assets to balance the books.
A Walton, Leicester, England
perhaps if more lower paid turned out to vote then Joy, from Wiltshire, would not lack the political representation that she desires
simon mawdsley, london,
There are certainly many floating local election voters who might be questioning the legacy and value of 10 years of New Labour and the potential benefit of a new leader--but , at present, the strongest positive poll message from this in Mr Browns favour is that only a moderate notional majority of these people truly believe in the need of a strong national sea-change in favour of the Conservatives.
William Grierson, Kimpton, UK
Brown's popularity could be reversed somewhat by treating the tax-paying electorate like intelligent human beings. I am one of the low paid who will pay more tax next year so that Brown can buy votes from those on much higher incomes. Am I supposed to "respect" this?
Joy, Wiltshire,