William Rees-Mogg
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We have had some remarkable coalitions of opposites in English political history – Fox and North, Churchill and Attlee – none as extreme as Blair and Brown. Tony Blair has been the most theatrical of our Prime Ministers, playing the idealist with an airy charm; Gordon Brown has been the most grave of our Chancellors, conducting our finances with a barely concealed Cromwellian rage. For much of the time they have made an effective partnership, with a tendency to block each other’s mistakes. Mr Brown’s refusal to let Mr Blair take Britain into the euro is an example of that; it has proved a great national benefit.
The Granita deal divided the Government between them; defence and foreign affairs fell into the Prime Minister’s half. The euro counted as finance, so Mr Brown was able to decide that policy. Iraq was foreign affairs, so Iraq was Mr Blair’s responsibility. Mr Brown was not enthusiastic for the invasion of Iraq. He had to give the policy his support; indeed, he had to vote for it. Otherwise he would have had to resign, like Robin Cook. Yet his endorsement was reluctant and minimalist.
In a month’s time Mr Brown will be Prime Minister. There will then be no counterweight to his authority on the Labour front bench. John Reid has already said that he will retire from office. Jack Straw will be the senior figure, but neither he, nor whoever is elected deputy leader, will have the political weight to resist any of the major policies of the new Prime Minister. On Iraq, which did so much damage to Mr Blair, Mr Brown can move in the direction that he chooses.
Both men have recently been to Washington; American observers probably have a better idea of their real views than anyone else. President Bush still has every confidence in Mr Blair, the loyal ally whose retirement he regards as a serious blow. Equally, the President is suspicious that Mr Brown will change British policy, and accelerate the withdrawal of British troops from Iraq. He says that Mr Brown is a “good fella”; that is the one thing that Mr Brown is not; to British ears it sounds almost as patronising as did “yo, Blair”.
It is more than likely that the President has read Mr Brown’s mind correctly. Most of the arguments point in the same direction. Mr Brown was never enthusiastic about the invasion; the policy decision was not his and he owes no personal loyalty; the war is unpopular in Britain and in the US; it cost the Republicans both houses of Congress; the European Prime Ministers who supported the war have all left office; the British forces in Iraq and Afghanistan are overstretched; the remaining 5,500 men in the Basra air base are not nearly enough to impose order on a city of two million; the security position in Iraq is very bad and the American “surge” does not seem greatly to have improved it.
If Mr Brown does follow the logic of this argument, there is an attractive political scenario for him. In 1997 he moved decisively to give the Bank of England independence to set interest rates. That was Labour’s first smack of “firm government”. If Mr Brown takes a radical decision on Iraq, that could well leave the same impression of decisiveness. It could lift Labour in the polls, perhaps even to the point at which an autumn election became an attractive option.
There are certainly arguments on the other side. What impact would a policy of more rapid withdrawal have on oil, terror and the Arab world? Such a change of policy might leave Iraq to anarchy and outright civil war; it might also be seen as disloyal to the Anglo-American alliance – certainly President Bush would resent it. Yet there are some plausible replies to these counter-arguments. No British effort that is now conceivable would make much difference to Iraq; indeed, we might make it worse by staying. Afghanistan is a different matter; troops and equipment released from Iraq might well be useful there.
So far as the American alliance is concerned, Mr Brown would indeed be moving away from the Republicans, but he would be linking up with Labour’s natural allies, the Democrats. In terms of the withdrawal of troops, he would be going no further than the congressional Democrats have already proposed. At present the Democrats are the favourites to win the White House in November next year. The primaries will start in January. Mr Brown may be more concerned to establish a political friendship with the next President than to retain the friendship of President Bush.
All of these arguments must be in Mr Brown’s mind. My expectation is that he will move in the direction of withdrawal, but with caution. He cannot be sure who the next President will be. It would be very damaging if British troops withdrew in a way that exposed the lines of communication of American soldiers in Iraq. Britain has earned the reputation in the United States of being a loyal ally, and we must retain that. There is also a real duty to give the Iraqis the best possible opportunity to solve their own problems.
The politics may be decisive. Mr Brown wants to win another overall majority for Labour at the next general election; nothing less will do. The accelerated withdrawal of British troops from Iraq would be popular, in proportion to the unpopularity of the war. Even the generals would support it, to reduce the overstrain on the Army.
The Conservatives are at the disadvantage of all Oppositions; Governments can act, but Oppositions can only talk. At the end of Mr Blair’s long, drawn-out process of retirement, Labour has lost momentum and needs to regain it. Mr Brown has an opportunity to show that he is a decisive leader, not afraid of the anger of President Bush. He may well take that opportunity.

William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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The fall of the British empire continues. America is next if we continue to run when the going gets tough!! All you have to beat America is the New York times on your side.
robert m barreras, Tucson , USA/ ARIZONA
"Britain has earned the reputation in the United States of being a loyal ally, and we must retain that."
You must? Loyalty is more important than international law, national honor, respect? This attitude leaves me dumbfounded.
syvanen, davis, california
Why is it that the English really have no notion of anything in the British Isles outside of England? There is an ignorance to the resentment that large majories of non English Brits feel towards them?
Your first line "We have had some remarkable coalitions of opposites in English political history"
It is British not merely English history and I'm sure you knew that both Blair and Brown were born outside England.
For someone writing for such a reputable newpaper surely you would take more care in what you say?
Craig H, Edinburgh,
"Mr Browns refusal to let Mr Blair take Britain into the euro is an example of that; it has proved a great national benefit."
Perhaps you would care to explain all the considerations of advantage and disadvantage, political, economic and social, that have led you to feel able to make such an unqualified statement as this one.
Simon Stephenson, Windermere, UK
I lived in London for two years. If I hadn't been invited to leave by the Home Office I would still be living in Pimlico.
But I am deeply concerned about the European reaction to Bush's tenure generally and Britain's reaction in particular. Bush truly is the American version of Stalin. The contempt he shows for the international community and the rule of law is quite real. If you notice the effect of the Bush doctrine of preemptive war and the kid napping of foreign nationals reflects a contempt for the sovereignty of other nations.
In effect, he has extended the Monroe doctrine to the world. Residents of Britain may think of themselves as subjects of the Crown, but ultimate sovereignty rest with the President of United States, who like Cesar is the unlimited sovereign of the empire's external possessions. Any night CIA contractors could whisk any one of you away to Guantanamo. Why doesn't Europe do anything to protect its sovereignty?
Charlie Marques, San Diego/Tijuana, California USA/Mexico
I would expect Mr. Brown to do what he genuinely believes is right. Electoral calculations shouldn't influence decisions regarding an issue as serious as Iraq. If he comes to the conclusion that withdrawing British troops from Iraq is the best course to take, for the sake of Iraqi and therefore British interests, then that's what he should do. Otherwise it would make more sense to stay the course while it feels necessary. In the latter case, all Mr. Brown would be able to do is to explain his motives thouroughly to the British public. Tony Blair has soaked up so much hatred, most of which would have been better directed towards the murderous thugs that terrify the streets of Baghdad day and night, that we might get a chance to have a more reasonable debate once he is gone.
Andre de Souza, London, UK
...Excellent and astute observation, Paddy of Borehamwood.
My question to Mr 'Moral Compass' Brown is why, just a day after he committed himself to the restoration of parliament's integrity, he chose to absent himself from Parliament and the MPs FOI vote. I had an open mind about him until that moment - he's now lost my respect for the remainder of his caretaker time as PM.
Trevor Dunn, Grantham, UK
Adrian Gilbert, Brown pulls out the troops, civil war, price of oil jumps, tax revenue rises, blame the Iraquis for the rising price of petrol. Why wouldn't Brown want to pull out the troops?
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
Handing interest rates to the Bank of England is considered as decisive !
From that moment onwards we saw dither and bluster at number 11. Coupled by some pretty pathetic ideas from Gordon Brown.
Are Tax Credits considered decisive ? The tax on pension funds or baby bonds ?? The sale of gold reserves at knock down prices ?
Decisive ? or is it a matter of 'Fools rush in ' ??
David, Swindon , Wiltshire
We went into Iraq together, we should leave Iraq together.
J Seymour, London, England
WRM has been wrong-footed by Gordon Brown on this one. Didn't he hear Mr Brown yesterday, after evicting a protester to the presence of our troops in Iraq, stating that he was in agreement with Bliar's decision to send troops out to Iraq and that he would not change what he considered to be a correct policy, even with the benefit of hindsight?
Perhaps WRM submitted his article before Gordon's "We woz right " speech.
Edward Willhoft, Epsom, UK
Removing our troops from Iraq, even if deploying them to Afghanistan, is both the "right thing" to do, and also politically smart. It's a "win-win" all round. The only person who won't like it is GB, but who cares about a President with domestic approval ratings down in the 30%'s and under seige from a Democratic Congress?
Paul Middleton, Yorkshire, UK
"Mr Brown was not enthusiastic for the invasion of Iraq. He had to give the policy his support; indeed, he had to vote for it. Otherwise he would have had to resign, like Robin Cook. Yet his endorsement was reluctant and minimalist."
So, his job came before his principles?
What kind of "moral compass" is that?
Paddy, Borehamwood,
Yes, but what happens if Brown withdraws British forces from Iraq and that country collapses into civil war? In that case the Oil supply from not just iraq itself but the whole region could be jeopadised. Result? A price hike in the cost of petrol and heating oil and disatisfaction among consumers. Not a very attractive climate in which to call a general election.
My hunch is that Brown will do nothing. His instinct is caution and right now the cautious thing is to leave british troops in Iraq. That may cost him the election in two years time but as we all know, a week is a long time in politics and two years and eternity.
Adrian Gilbert, Tonbridge, England
Imagine you are a German student of International Politics, taking your final exams, and the first question on your examination paper opens with a quotation from the above article in The Times: "The euro counted as finance, so Mr. Brown was able to decide that policy. Iraq was foreign affairs, so Iraq was Blair's responsibility." The question goes on to give the student the following task: "Explain, with reference to the above quotation, the hierarchy of responsibility in the United Kingdom Cabinet, paying particular attention to the tasks of Prime Minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer and Foreign Secretary".
Edmund Burke, Kingston upon Thames, England
In my view there is no danger of Brown withdrawing British troops from Iraq, except in very limited numbers. After all he has Blair's legacy to protect as well as the strategic importance the disposition of Coalition Forces has in the Middle-East.. All this will have have been well dictated to him by the New Labour caucas and Allied Intelligence Directorates prior to the change-over.
Robert , Kirk Ella., East Yorks.,
I think you're right when you say that Brown will be more concerned with the next president. He'll be keeping his head down and hoping the democrats or a less extreme republican wins rather than doing anything positive to sort the mess out himself.
Mark, Newcastle, England,
As far as the great stock market collapse is concened........ probably just around the corner!!!
Neil , KL, Malaysia
How do you know that the UK would not have done better if it had adopted the Euro?
Then again where is the great collapse in world stock markets that you were predicting a few years ago?
Marek, London, UK
The stated policy of the Govt is already one of gradual withdrawal, with a phased take-up of security management by the Iraqis themselves. Sounds like what your journalist says Brown is going to announce as a "new approach" .
People of Britain, and of Iraq - don't expect miracles !!
Brian Clapson, Trebeurden, France
Assuming whatever Bush used to blackmail Blair doesn't work on Brown. The three "B's"; is there a clue there?
Andrew Milner, Karuizawa, Nagano
"Mr Brown was not enthusiastic for the invasion of Iraq. He had to give the policy his support; indeed, he had to vote for it. Otherwise he would have had to resign, like Robin Cook."
So, war as an act of personal political expediency. If this is true then Mr Brown's vaunted Moral Compass needs some severe adjustment.
Bruce, UK, Malvern,
There's a certain amount of double-think in this article. On the one hand, "Britain has earned the reputation in the United States of being a loyal ally, and we must retain that." On the other, "Mr Brown has an opportunity to show that he is a decisive leader, not afraid of the anger of President Bush." Just shows how easy it is, being a columnist and never having to choose between two incompatible goals.
I think the political dividend of withdrawal will last as long as it takes for southern Iraq to fall into the hands of the militias and the elected Iraqi government to accuse Britain of betraying democracy.
The political dividends of appeasement are never more than short-term.
HarryG, London,