I will discount the by-election in Ealing Southall as it is a rather special seat but the Tory performance in Sedgefield was woeful. They retained their share of the vote but they should have done much better. Although it is true the seat is a Labour stronghold and has been for many years, until the 1997 general election rout the Tories could still obtain a very reasonable second-place percentage vote in the seat of around 28%. This collapsed to 18% in the 1997 election and further declined to 14-15% in 2001 where it has stayed ever since. Surely, if the Tories were making significant progress their vote should have increased to around 18% or preferably entered the low 20's again? The BNP also did well. The Conservatives need to remember that their 'core vote' can stay at home, vote UKIP or BNP. The days when your base voters could be safely ignored as you journeyed to the political 'centre' as they had 'no where else to go' are over.

Barry, Brentwood, United Kingdom

"The real story is the rise of the BNP in the area, coming 4th with a vote 5x that of UKIP.. "

A worrying aspect and the most incisive and revealling comment because it comes from the North where Dave's dancing old Etonians need to make significant inroads.

And whilst the politically correct avoid the issues of Tax, Immigration and Europe, in my local constituency they have managed to select a hunting, shooting, fishing candidate for the seat, which is an ex mining, and definitely a working persons consitutency. ... Also a marginal seat.

Never mind, whilst I discuss these issues directly affecting our local constituency, in the local pubs of our constituency (all of which I suspect hold the key to the next election result, successful or otherwise), others are having tea and scones in Dave's kitchen and planning the next marketing campaign that the British electorate (who are much more savvy than you lot give credit) are obviously heartily sick of.

5 more years Gordon?

Pete Balchin, Solicitor, Bristol, uk

The real winners were once again the Apathy Party.(39% of the vote at the last General Election).Labour got re-elected in this "safe "seat with the support of less than 20% of the electorate.Some many of us now feel unrepresented by the main political parties which is why people end up voting for an outfit like the BNP.

Dave Robins, West Drayton,

Gordon Brown will soon be shaking in his boots when the option polls turn and his back bench mp's in the 100 marginal start panicking. Brown cant run away from 10 years at the treasury where he has turn the poor in to benefit junkies. Ian's report a few weeks ago into breakdown Britain shows that and if any middle class person disagrees then I suggest they spend some time on the housing estates in our inner citys. Even mine!

Dean, sheffield, england

Is Brown really interested in having any general elections any time in the near future - as long as 'EU reform treaty' is not fully implemented and as long as there is the threat of people demanding a referendum?

A. Schelberg, Germany,

Perhaps more people would vote conservative if they knew what their future policies are. I'm buggered if I know, and most people don't really care. What I do know is what I read in the papers and see on TV , an extremely well connected man who is trying hard to be a good bloke, putting windmills on his chimney to pretend to save electricity, which the council soon had down !

Off to Spitzbergen to have a look at the polar bears, bit cold up there, riding his bike a few miles to take in some good lung fulls of grotty London air ,and then a trip to Africa.

I ask myself, well not really, how will all this activity make my life more prosperous, make me happier, improve the life of Britain's overtaxed, politically worn out, tired of living in Britain population.

Not one scrap ! When he starts talking sense the average man and woman sitting on a No. 9 bus will listen.

Phil de buquet, Newport, England

Dr. Findlater is correct to identify himself as one of the many who have left the shambles that now styles itself the Tory Party (or should we say New Cons?) and to surmise that there are hundreds of thousands like him. What on earth is there in the pathetic apology for a policy platform now being advanced to entice any of us back?

Successful campaigns do not usually seek to take the middle ground (No-Mans's Land!) but try to encircle or at least to outflank the enemy. But I don't suppose that the Cameronians see New Labour as the 'enemy' at all; more a policy area to be emulated, copied and transmuted into their own form of Fool's Gold. They surely have enough fools to do the digging of it.

Frankland Macdonald Wood, Sansepolcro 52037, Italy

I disagree with this article. For a government to simply hold on to seats in by-elections is a good achievement. The last Conservative government found it almost impossible to hold on to seats in by-elections; the only question then was how large the swing against them would be: 20% or 30%, for example.

Andrew Stidwill, Lichfield, UK

It was clearly explained why this was good news for the Tories and bad for Labour.
The Tories win if they hold ground and Labour lose it to the Lib Dems or others.
It wasnt that complicated an idea.
People are only going to move away from labour in the coming year.
People arent going to abandon the Tories in the next year.
If enough people abandon Labour, the Tories win by default.

The real story is the rise of the BNP in the area, coming 4th with a vote 5x that of UKIP.

Possibly meaningless, it was only a by election for a short time, people may vote differently in the generals, but the Tories might have a fight on their hands for the, well, centre and right votes.

Dominic, Manchester, UK

Having re-read this article I can only assume that Lord Rees-Mogg is attempting to convince the Government not to hold an early election. He knows, must know, what everyone else knows; if they did so they would win handsomely. Either that or he has taken leave of his senses.

He realises that the Tory party desperately needs time - time to develop policies, time to get over the Brown bounce, time to gain some credibility, time for the Government to make mistakes.

I can only hope he fails in his mission. Brown should go to the country this Autumn.

Joe, Leeds,

An incredible assessment from someone who is actually paid to know what he's talking about.

For your information Mr Rees Mogg by elections are not a great indicator to future General election results. If they were we would have had Lib Dem Governments for years.

I think this was a very solid performance from Labour, a pretty disappointing one for the Lib Dems and worse for the Tories.

Labour won exactly the sort of by elections that they have been losing by a fairly comfortable margin, and to describe it as 'very bad' for Labour is disingenuous at best.

Toby Perkins, Chesterfield,

Comical Ali couldn't have written a more ludicrous article. Talk about whistling to keep your spirits up. You expect Governments of whatever party to do poorly during mid-term by-elections. You expect Government supporters to stay at home during the same. But for an opposition to be on the move, it has to show it is taking lots of votes and seats from the Government. Even this doesn't by any means show they will win the following General Election as Labour proved throughout the eighties and early nineties. But if you are not doing it, you are not likely to be making a realistic challenge. Is there anything the Tories might do or any leader they might pick - remember his glowing praise of Iain Duncan Smith - which Rees Mogg wouldn't back enthusiastically.

Albert Williams, Penzance , Cornwall

One of the most amusing things about the Cameron debacle is seeing political pundits reeling at this departure from the script. Instead of a golden boy they got a liability - serves everyone concerned (except we hard-pressed voters, of course) right.

Tony, ROchester,

Utterly agree with Rees-Mogg. By-elections aren't just an excuse to kick the governing party, they're an excuse for the anti-establishment vote, and the Tories are, despite being in opposition, still seen as an establishment party. You don't vote Tory to give someone a kicking, that's why you turn to the Lib Dems (no amount of by-election successes is going to give them a realistic chance of major successes at a general election).

You vote Tory because you believe in them as a government (or not, as was the case in the last three elections). Ergo, the by-elections tell us nothing one way or the other about the Tories chances. That, coupled with the fact that the polls ALWAYS underestimate their support, gives me a great deal of confidence that they will do very well at the next general election. It is likely that they will not get an overall majority but if they don't beat Labour in the popular vote I'll eat my hat!

gingeral, London, UK

You have to admire William Rees-Mogg's consistency. Over the past 10 years he has given us several wildly optimistic analyses of election results and opinion polls, and has unfailingly concluded that they are portents of a Conservative victory.
Ironocally, during this same period, the Blair/Brown administration has delivered an almost perfect version of the very Tory government that he appears to crave.

arnoldo, Coventry,

Rees-Mogg is correct in pointing out the danger - to Labour - of a swing to the Lib Dems; the mean swing in the byelections - if repeated at a general election -would indeed reduce Labour to ruins. The Tories would gain nothing in terms of share of the vote, but still gain 60+ seats.

However, these figures will not be repeated in a general election. I know it, you know it and Rees-Mogg knows it.

Thus his article has the distinct whiff of rather desperate spin.
A star for effort but only 2 out of 10 for truthfulness.

David Ewing, Tewkesbury-under-Severn,

What delusional rubbish from Rees-Mogg. After ten years of a so called unpopular government the conservatives should be winning seats, even safe seats, from Labour as Labour was doing years before 1997, not just holding on to their share of the vote. Let me remind Rees-Mogg that the last time the Tories won a by-election from another party was in 1985, TWENTY FIVE YEARS AGO!
Also there was a big drop in turn out which, tradionally affects the Labour vote and, short of asking every Lib Dem voter how does he know that Labour voters switched to them?
Mind you if it makes him happy to think the conservatives are on course to win the next election, who am I to question his so called logic!

Peter Haymes, Felixstowe, UK

Sorry Mr Rees-Mogg, it's a lot more than that I'm affraid. As you know, Mr Cameron is also playing to the business audience that will ulitmately back him financially in the next election. Money talks and a lack of it will mean he walks. So for all who comment upon his Leadership...wide and far...when it comes down to it, I think the Tory Party will have a devil of a time raising the money necessary to fight another election properly.

The end game is thus simple: Is Mr Cameron about to switch on the nation politically to his form of Conservatism...or is the Tory Party going to implode in some twenty four months time forever?

For me, maybe I'm just missing his point...because I can't see him winning, full stop! My real fear is what happens after he's gone and the Tory Party are smashed in pieces. Is the country really prepared to wait another twenty years for someone to wake it up?

I'm not sorry to say it, I'm just being pragmatic.

David Downes, Chester, UK

Labour's vote seems brittle in Southall, but even more so in Sedgefield where the drop was much bigger. Other parties are beginning to affect outcomes but rarely get reported.

Henry Curteis, LONDON, SW15

LOL. It's very bad to win and very good to come in third place! Reasoning like this is why the Conservatives have lost three general elections!

BP, Bournemouth, UK

There has been an unofficial electoral pact between Labour and Lib Dem which has pushed the Conservative share down. If that pact is starting to unwind, then the Conservatives are the natural beneficiaries.

Sedgefield showed that Labour voters will also vote for BNP.

Brown's vote looks brittle one way or the other. LRM could be on to something.

Henry Curteis, LONDON, SW15

Unless somebody - in any party - wakes up to the problems in the country any future election will be meaningless.
The economy is shot . Immigration is out of control , Law and Order does not exist .DRugs et etec etc What goes round comes round - it is really about time those who purport to goverrn us open their eyes - Blair , Brown and their cronies have done an excellent job of trying to wreck 1000 and more years of this countries heritage. They have and will fail because eventually the good old indeginous Brit realises and sorts things out.

Tim , Kent ,

When we in Britain get a Parliament which actually represents the way the electorate has voted and does not grossly distort a minority vote of the electorate into a parliamentary majority, then perhaps we can say we have a true Democracy and not just a country which has an Electoral System - full of self-serving Members of Parliament.

N. McCart, Cheltenham, England

Finally a sensible analysis of those results! Yes, it would have been a magnificent triumph had the Conservatives managed to overturn either majority but given we are talking two of Labour's safest seats - and in a new leader "honeymoon" - it is unrealistic and quite pathetic for commentators to use this lack of victory as an excuse to indulge their dislike of Cameron.

However I'm not sure I agree there's nothing to worry about for the LibDems - when's the last time they went this long without a by-election gain?

Phil, Sevenoaks,

Poor old mystic Mogg. I've learned through long experience of reading his words that whatever he predicts, the opposite will actually happen. Where he predicts doom, the clouds part and things improve. Where he predicts victory, the result is doom.

William, London,

If you shake all the words in the English language vigorously and often enough they will eventually fall into a message you want to hear. The above analysis of statistics is no more meaningfull than the tealeaves in my cup. The Tories do not have the people or the presentation to pursuade the voters who think rather than just follow party. And as for Boris "the self directed missile" very likely to fly in a circle and up his own tailpipe. Politics is a serious business and needs sensible, well informed and lucky generals, sorry but the Tories havent yet got them.

mike gee, bournemouth, uk

Other than the Milibands' father, if he is still alive, I suspect Lord Rees-Mogg is the only person to have two children who will be fighting Parliamentary seats at the next election. I agree with the writer of the first comment who believed that Rees-Mogg is spinning these results. To say our strategy is to win the mayoral contest and to win a general election (even if he does name the date) will not be a revelation to many. While we fielded an ethnic minority candidate at the last election, the party must be careful it is not seen as being tokenist, particularly in the light of the facts that Mr Lit does not seem to have been an ardent Tory for very long!

Phil Whittington, Worcester Park, UK

Rees-Mogg should seek early retirement. Whenever he spouts such nonsense one should immediately adopt the opposite point of view. His record for getting it wrong be it political or financial analysis is legendary! Typical for him to praise the Old Etonians Sham Cam and Borris the Buffoon. Boris is a big figure of fun in the Tory Party rather like his own son Jacob who is trying to win a seat in my neck of the woods. For the first time ever I'll be voting Labour.

Charlie Bennington, Somerset, UK

This is a bizarre assessment! Early in 1979, the Tories won Sutton-in-Ashfield with a swing of 22%. Now their vote doesn't move, they pick up two 3rd places, and its supposed to be bad news for the Government.

Those of us who are not Conservative supporters, though, hope you go on saying it. If Cameron and his no hopers believe it, and carry on as they are, we are assured of several more Tory-free years. Excellent!!

John Nicholson, Hampton, Middlesex

Complete nonsense.

These electoral results are a disaster for the Conservatives and Rees-Mogg is merely spinning them as being other than they are. Electorates traditionally give the ruling party a bloody nose at by-elections, and return to the fold at the Big One.

It clearly demonstrates that those wavering voters are not considering the Conservatives as a possible alternative, otherwise their vote would have been much improved. Saying otherwise is patently wrong. The LibDem vote plays out this story, and again it shows that the Tories are in no position to claim any kind of victory or trend towards them.

Roy Ellor, Salford, UK

rees-mogg in viewing the world through rose tinted spectacles and completely deluding himself non-shocker. in particular, i love the way that he refers to events in 1784 as if they are relevant to the next mayoral election in london... and his belief that the conservatives becoming the boris johnson party will make them seem credible and electable. keep up the good work.

Hugh, London, UK

One of the oddest aspects of the post by-election analysis is the lack of any attention given to the movement of support among the 'fringe' parties. UKIP is regarded as the usual repository for disaffected Tories but utterly failed in Sedgefield. The BNP on the other hand attracted almost 9 per cent of the vote - and this in a seat where it had no councillors and little local organisation. The indicators are that the BNP must have taken ex-Tory votes as well as the usual disillusioned Labour white working class vote. Does this confirm the long term decline of UKIP and the permanent emergence of the BNP as the main nationalist party, drawing votes across the classes (political and social)? If the BNP continues to moderate its policies and begins to attract an ex-Tory officer class, and if the immigration crisis continues, the Establishment parties will have to accept that voters will start to support the BNP in significant numbers.

david lovibond, devizes, wiltshire

In the mid-term of a parliament. The Tories should be doing be winning bye elections from Labour if they have any chance winning the next general elections. So how come the results in Sedgefield and Ealing Southall be good to the Tories? I suggest Rees-Mogg needs his head examined!

E Jacob, London,

Well, if that is the best the Tories can hope for, than the prospects are rather dim. First, as Mr. Rees-Mogg correctly states, voter participation in by-elections is different than in general elections, thus the results only provide a limited outlook on a possible general election. The small outlook they provide is that the majority is still in place and labour voters found it comfortable enough to stay at home than to switch to another party - they therefore form a reservoir than can be re-activated by a prospect of a Tory government. Third, the magic "London in 2008 and the general election in 2009"-strategy, Mr Rees-Mogg seems to be so confident of, could easily be countered by ie. calling a general election in May 2008 together with the general election, thus maximising the outpouring of anti-tory demographics to the polls in London. The election is still Labours to lose.

Jan, Hanover, Germany

How can anyone trust Rees-Mogg's benign blatherings in Cameron's direction ? Both his children are candidates for #David Cameron's Conservatives# at the forthcoming election so he obviously cannot queer their pitch amongst the Notting Hill Left-Liberal, silver-spoon, Eton-ati who have captured the Conservative castle.

Conservatives came a poor third in a constituency they themselves hyped to win and with a ' Cameron Conservative' !

And Rees-Mogg tries to make out this is a warning to Brown ? Give me strength.

riv, Perpignan,

i think it is not enough for the tory vote to hold but it is true that it is a good foundation to build on.the tory needs an ordinary man and woman up and down the country to be not only willing but also reconciled with the idea of voting conservative.i haven't heared that so far.i know it is still early but not that early!time is running out slowly but not fast...remember where blair was during this time of the electoral cycle before going on to win?cameron is not there yet.it true people are no longer hostile to the tory party but they are not "in love" either.i remember a year before blaire won you could hear people talking openly about their dislike of the tories looking at blair with hope.in other words they had already made up their minds.from there on we were all witnessing the long and painful end game in british politics.that was it.we are not there yet...even remotetly.
it will be the most interesting elections for some time.cameron must acknowledge that brown is tough!

john small, canterbury, uk

A former (and long-term) Conservative activist (a delusional fruitcake to the Cameroons) I very quickly decided that the party was going off the rails and suffering a curious auto-immune disease, turning on itself.
I left and I believe that many more like me will do so and when the election campaign comes along the troops will not rally to the task of 'knocking on doors'.
Rees-Mogg can pore over his curious statistics as much as he likes but all depends on whether the party, drawing on the policy groups, can produce a genuinely Conservative manifesto.

Dr J Findlater, Carnforth,

Absolutely spot on and what I have been saying since Friday morning. Whilst Labour held onto 2 incredibly safe seats which must be a huge relief to them the drop in their share of the of vote must be worrying the living daylights out of them especially showing how the conservatives share actually held up. The Conservatives must stop being their own worst enemy. Gordon Brown has been in the leads in polls for 3 weeks. Hardly a major foundation building block for Labour. Cameron has made a few mistakes and I think he needs to up his game somewhat but generally things are going well and the prognosis for Labour looks worse - the economy is faltering and eventually Gordon Brown is going to have problems putting distance between his administration and Blairs in which he was the second major player for 10 years. Brown also normally disappears when the going gets touch not something he can do very much of any more.

The Amazing Mr Marc, Tokyo,

I fear that the "fringe element of anonymous and unimpressive backbenchers" constitutes the modern Conservative Party....
I must also admit to being reluctantly impressed by the way in which a tactical disaster has now been transformed into an inspired strategy. But can the Tories really afford many more such triumphs?

Nick, London, UK

Bad news for Labour, yet bad news for the Tories also, as they too seem to be far from winning a Commons majority come the next General Election.

Dave H, London,

This seems like a very classical interpretation of a mid-term by-election in safe seats, great for the Lib Dems, ok for the Opposition, and bad for the government. Is this not familiar? Next, Ming will be telling his troops to return to their constituencies and prepare for government!

That said, Lord Rees-Mogg makes a good point. The only place for the Tories is in the centre. The few Tory backbenchers (what an unimpressive lot they are!) who believe otherwise are delusional. Any move back to Tory core beliefs (a fabrication of the last 15 years) will yield nothing except the evaporation of gains made in London and other cities. Yes, the Tory heartland will remain strong, but it would have done so anyway. If the party carries on down that route, it will soon find that it's support has, quite literally, died out.

James, London,

The by-election result in Ealing was extremely damaging for David Cameron and the Conservatives for two reasons. Firstly, Cameron tied himself too closely to the result, wasting vital political capital. He visited the constituency five times and the Tory candidate campaigned for ‘David Cameron’s Conservatives’. They came third, increasing their share of the vote by less than 1%.

The Conservatives spent 120k on the campaign because they know that mid-term straight swap by-election victories would be a harbinger of general election success. The second reason the result is damaging is because they did so very poorly. They are not in the same position as Labour in 1995. This should be dawning on Central Office and requires a recalibration of expectations.

It’s a mistake to extrapolate by-election results to a general election, especially on vote share. So on current poll ratings we can expect Labour to comfortably win an early election, maintaining a 120 to150 seat majority.

Joe, Leeds,

This is exactly correct; Ealing is a Labour stronghold usually anyway and the Conservatives did well to get gains.

Jamie Brown, Penn, BUCKS

This article is completely delusional. Cameron's honeymoon is over. The Tory faithful simply can't bring themselves to admit what is now obvious to everyone else. Cameron was chosen on the back of a dearth of convincing opponents, and a rather vacuous speech made without notes at the party conference. It was a desperate ploy, and it's clearly failed.

An opposition party with a huge deficit in parliamentary seats and any hope of winning an outright majority in the next election should be scorching victories in mid-term byelections. This clearly is not happening. Rees-Mogg admits they are just about holding their vote from the last (lost) general election.

And "self-directed missile" Boris - amusing fellow though he is - doesn't strike me as a convincing focus for policy development.

It's the "fringe element of anonymous and unimpressive backbenchers" who are talking sense. All Conservative supporters will be saying the same in a couple of years, but by then it will be too late.

Bob Doney, Camberley, England