William Rees-Mogg
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At least, Gordon Brown’s decision not to call an election has given us back the use of our dining-room table. On Saturday it was still being used as a planning table for the Tory campaign in Somerton & Frome, where our daughter, Annunziata, is the candidate. Her brother Jacob would also have been fighting the adjoining seat of North East Somerset.
Our dining-room table is a large one, designed to allow generous space for children and grandchildren. For the past ten days it has been covered by a large map of the Somerton & Frome constituency, which is an ultra-marginal Liberal Democrat seat. Apart from Somerton and Frome themselves, and charming small towns such as Wincanton, Bruton and Castle Cary, the constituency is spread over 900 square miles of beautiful Somerset countryside, stretching from Farleigh Hungerford in the north east to Beer Crowcombe in the far west. By Friday evening Annunziata had completed her schedule for the three weeks of the campaign, if one were to be called.
As well as giving our family back the use of our table, Mr Brown has done a service to the Conservative campaign by mounting a full-scale dress rehearsal. Everything started to click into place, as it is supposed to do; experienced campaigners were ringing in, leaflets were being put into envelopes. And with the dress rehearsal there was rising confidence. Even on the day that an opinion poll showed an 11-point Labour lead there was the heady feeling that the Conservative activists were about to go into battle. After David Cameron’s speech, the inheritance tax pledge and the improving opinion polls, there was rising enthusiasm that this battle, against the odds, could be won.
For most of the 20th century the Conservatives did, in fact, win most elections. Since Black Wednesday, in September 1992, too many Conservatives have seen themselves as the losing party. They lost by a landslide in 1997, and another landslide in 2001 and by a third, if smaller, landslide in 2005. Even in 2007 they had been having rather a bad summer. There had been an avoidable dispute about grammar schools, Norman Tebbit was growling from his dog basket, and Mr Brown, as a new Prime Minister, was ahead in the polls. After ten years of defeat a certain habit of pessimism had spread.
What no one expected was that Mr Brown would use his considerable skills to orchestrate the recovery of the Conservative Party. It was Mr Brown who started the rumour of an autumn election – not in itself a bad idea. I am fairly sure he could have won an election in July. Time and again he was asked whether he intended to call an early election; time and again he fed the rumour by refusing to deny it.
Then he seemed to have made up his mind. After Labour’s conference, late last month, the polls swung farther towards Labour. Mr Brown’s own speech had been well received, though I thought it was much too boring. Labour advisers were talking in a triumphalist way about the opportunity to defeat Mr Cameron once and for all. Alastair Campbell would never have allowed Labour propaganda to build up the Conservative conference in this way. It was never probable that Mr Cameron would fluff his lines and make a bad speech. I have been a speech writer for one Conservative leader, Anthony Eden in 1956, and have heard ten of them address their party conference. Mr Cameron is the best conference speaker since Winston Churchill retired, and a more natural impromptu speaker than Churchill himself. He is also a much better public speaker than Mr Brown.
Public perceptions tend to have the rhythm of the waltz – one, two, three, one, two, three. The early summer updraught for Labour had left it vulnerable to the downdraught when it came. In the months that Mr Brown was considering an election he should have made allowances for the downdraught. By the beginning of this month he was within hours of the Conservative counterattack. When it came, Labour’s position in the polls was shattered. Apparently, the polls in the marginal seats were particularly bad.
What Mr Brown wanted was a certainty. There are no certainties in politics or in war. Mr Brown had had the luxury of being the chief of staff – admittedly a very disloyal chief of staff – to a gifted field commander, Tony Blair. Mr Blair himself was no Napoleon, nor was he a Frederick the Great, but he was the political equivalent of a brilliant master of momentum – like Guderian or possibly even Rommel.
As a party leader Mr Blair was in the first class, though I am not sure that he was a more gifted leader than Mr Cameron, who should not be tarred with Mr Blair’s political defects merely because he so obviously possesses many of Mr Blair’s political talents. Mr Brown is not like this at all. He is not a gambler, though politics is always a matter of risk and will. He is a copybook staff officer, like the generals defeated by Napoleon.
Some people are questioning whether the election that never happened was an important event. Of course it is. Mr Cameron saw off Mr Brown. It was Mr Brown who blinked first, as he blinked first at his Granita negotiation with Mr Blair. The political weather ahead looks quite rough, as does the economic. Yet the real battle is always the battle of wills.
Polls will go up and down in the future, as they have in the past, but, as Napoleon observed: “In war, three quarters turn on personal morale; the balance of manpower and materials only counts for the remaining quarter.” Or, as Lenin asked: “Who, whom?” Who did it was Cameron; to whom it was done was Brown. He is left looking like the Emperor Galba, of whom Tacitus said that he was “ capax imperii nisi imperasset” – capable of being emperor unless he had reigned.

William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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all politicians in all parties manage the political agenda.
Why is it reprehensible for G Brown to do it?
The usual pattern.
Now you cannot savage Blair any more, you give Brown a few months of praise and then start assasinating his character.
The same will happen with Cameron if he ever gets elected.
How do you people sleep at night?
billcarr, turku, finland
Glaba lasted about 4 months as Emperor. Brown should last rather longer
Farfel, London, UK
Dear Mystic, you've got it wrong again. It's not about "blinking first", "bottling it" or whatever the latest Tory spin line is. It's all about making a rational choice in the face of evidence and argument. Brown "blinked" at Granita? If you will, but the decision was rational and helped give Labour its first decade in power. Brown "blinked" again last week? If you will, but once again it was a rational move in the face of evidence. Darlings Annunziata and Jacob will have to put their ambitions on ice for a decade or so more. Not a bad result for a "blink".
William, London,
On a recent visit to England, stuck in traffic on the M1, I had my only opportunity to listen carefully to what David Cameron has to say. Now admiitedly it was a 'soft' radio interview but the longer it went on the more impressed i was. It was a masterly communication. My guess is that one on one, on equal terms, Mr Cameron will beat Mr Brown every time. And, should it matter, all my intincts are to detest an "Eton toff".
Geoff, Sydney,
Did he really blink first or did he just do the dirty on the Tories by having them bring out some new policies and test ride public sentiment. Very clever. A lesson learnt, never give away your big ideas until your opponent can do nothing to counteract them!
Alistair Kipling, Birmingham,
Why would he call an election to lose his majority?. Get real.
Michael Riley, London,
I have always had high regard for Mr Rees-Mogg's views but there is a dysfunctional feel to the analogy drawn between modern British politics and military leaders/warriors. Of course, all politicians love the link and both involve leadership and winning but it can be drawn too far. Past military leaders were men (and occasionally women) of great substance who strategised and took great chances in pursuit of goals beyond their own interests. In contrast, politics over recent years has become little more than an exercise in other peoples' money being used (without real accountability) by folk who have never had real jobs to scheme for their own self-aggrandisement. That certainly seems a fair characterisation of Gordon Brown.
Chris, London, England
Brown got the Tories to show their hand though, didn't he? Guess who will be raising the inheritance tax threshold in a few months' time.
Andrew, London, UK
I'm not so sure that Cameron has seen off Brown.
Over the years preceeding the last election, it was noticeable that Labour had consistently stolen populist policies enunciated by the Conservatives. Since the election of Cameron, the Conservatives made no populist policy anouncements, to the dismay of their supporters and Labour alike. However, Cameron's response to an impending election has led to the release of such populist policies, and Labour, as has been their wont, will grab them and thus blunt the Conservative appeal.
Whether such a gambit was Brown's intention or not will never be known, but the result is the same.
DP111, Beverley, UK
Actually the media started all the speculation about elections, but let's not mere facts get in the way. I suppose Mr Brown has done the Tories a favour, they might have thought up some policies bythe time of a real election other than inheritance tax cuts for the rich and benefit cuts for the poor. And Cameron might have stopped whining on about "famlees" like a better-coiffered version of Pauline Fowler.
Londonsage, London, UK
Cameron and his team had had a message nobody - including The Lady herself - understood or was attracted to. Consequently they were at a steady 10% behind Labour and looked like staying that way. Could Brown, could any Prime Minister in that position resist the temptation to take a shot? Only one thing could spoil it - as I wrote in a comment piece two weeks ago - good old fashioned populist Tory policies kept in reserve and pulled out of the hat. And, lo exactly this came to pass and the polls swung back over the week of the conference. Cameron was now level-pegging Brown such that the latter could even lose an early election.
Nothing to do with "bottle". Nothing to do with blinking or a trial of nerve. The sitting duck had flown away. And it was tax cuts what done it. Simple as that.
Bob T, London, UK
The good people of Somerton & Frome do not put on airs. If you want to win their votes, being burdened with a name like Annunziata, even for a beautiful and talented lady, is not a good start . David Cameron is now taking care to be seen in ordinary clothes, tieless, in shirtsleeves, against the background of a kitchen, or garden. He watches football from the stands, not the VIP Lounge, like his rival.
Maybe she could shorten it to Anita, or, better still "Nita". I wish her well, but she has to get the right image.
Nigel MacNicol, Oakham, Rutland,
Why do entrenched Labour supporters such as ian Kemmish keep insisting that Brown had nothing to do with the purpourted election? It is classic Brown, somethign we have seen time and again from him - float ideas, allow supporters to talk it up, see the reaction but at all times stay neutral and claim to have nothing to do with it. This time he got his fingers burnt though. As for the Tories being the haves, please Mr Gee, think about what a self-serving capitalist would like - millions of poor people who can't afford your product or millions of wealthy people buying it? Thus even if we Tories were as selfish as you believe, we would still want the poor to become rich. And actually we want everyone to have a great education, to earn as much as they can and for all to have access to fantastic health care. It's just we don't think making the wealthy poorer is a sensible way to make veryone richer.
Tim, London,
If Brown is to restore any credibility with the electorate he must call an election in the next six months. Brown is only a caretaker Prime Minister; never voted into power. He has now committed the greatest sin of a politician; caught out telling lies to the electorate over his reasons not to call an election. Of course he bottled it as soon as he saw the latest polls. He is also seen as a man who dithers and prevaricates over a decision, a trait that makes him unacceptable as a Prime Minister.
Nicholas Davies, Farnham, Surrey, UK
OR: He ignored a nauseating little bully and let the press and the opposition rush around like narcissistic fools for a bit.
I've never voted in my life, but in the inconceivable event that I ever had served time as PM, I might well have done the same. Just for amusement's sake.
If he had ever had the slightest intention of treating the election gossip with less contempt than it deserved, then surely every member of the cabinet would have been trotted out to emphasise the bleeding obvious point that the tax bribe being offered would, within at most a few months, increase house price inflation, not cut it.
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
No election - excellent news! An awful lot of chickens will be coming home to roost in the next two years and its only right that the present government should have to face them. Had Labour lost an election now it could say, in 2009, that "everything was OK until we left office and look at it now."
Lewis Thomas, High Wycombe, UK
A perceptive article without the hysteria. It will take a lot to make me vote Tory which is still the party of the haves who want even more and the devil take the rest.. Cameron certainly did well and Brown has a lot of work to do and needs more than a little luck over the next two years.
mike gee, bournemouth, uk
I hope that the Conservative Party has come to its senses and will follow the course set out last week, with some firming up. Let's here no more about the 'middle ground' and such nonsense; low taxation, stronger families, secure borders and immigrant control, repatriation of powers from the EU, firm law and order, pruned Welfare State - all these have to be policy pluses. The ordinary voter will respond.
Dr J Findlater, Carnforth,
A prospective politician is using her parents' dining room table to co-ordinate her campaign?
Well, with all of this big furniture available to the Conservatives, no-one else has a chance. Not a chance!
James M, Southport, UK
Simply brilliant. Is it true that Emperor Galba did not have a long reign?
Mike, Chapel Hill, USA
Michael Fernandes, Chapel Hill, NC USA
I think Mr Brown should have gone a couple of months ago with the momentum of his perceived success managing various problems in the summer eg: f&m, floods etc. He has looked cynical in his attempts to manage the political agenda in the last couple of weeks which I think will haunt him for the rest of this parliament. I think this could be a long slow death as the conservatives are able to take the high ground leaving Brown to cope with a restless party and many birds coming home to roost from the past, eg: pensions, borrowing and the EU treaty he wants to force on us.
rwrenn, brightling, UK
Money reform is the single most important reform area that needs to be tackled. Private banks ability to sell money they do not have as hard currency at interest gives them a priveledge that even our national bank does not share. Something is badly wrong with the state of this currencies monetary situation when our debt is greater than our GDP. Its time Brown did something good for us and reformed the system. Otherwise lets give him the boot.
Simon Moore, Brentford,