William Rees-Mogg
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For some time commentators have been saying that the Conservatives could not win the next general election because they were stuck on 40 per cent in the polls and needed to get to 45 per cent to have the prospect of an overall majority. There was something in this argument. It would require an extraordinary collapse of the Labour Party for the Conservatives to win outright. Yet now the unthinkable has happened. A YouGov poll yesterday in The Sunday Times put Conservative support at 45 per cent, with Labour on 32 and the Liberal Democrats on 14. These are landslide figures.
Since the 2005 general election I have taken YouGov as my gold standard poll, and Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher's Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies as the best way of converting share of votes into share of seats. We are obviously still a long way from a general election, but it is seats in the next Parliament that really matter, if only because the morale of a parliamentary party depends on the confidence of MPs that they can hold their seats. At the end of their guide Rallings and Thrasher provide a simple conversion table. If the latest YouGov figures were to occur at a general election, the Conservatives would win 374 seats, Labour 227 and the Lib Dems 19.
The Conservatives would have an overall majority of about 100 and a majority over Labour of close to 150. Labour would lose about 120 seats and the Lib Dems about 45. This would produce a Conservative landslide comparable with the Labour landslide in 1997, as large in terms of the share of votes, though somewhat smaller in terms of seats. On any result approaching the current YouGov poll one would expect the Conservatives to be in power for the next two parliaments.
The most remarkable aspect of this decline in Labour's support is how rapid it has been. If one takes Gordon Brown's personal rating, that has fallen from a favourable 48 per cent in August to 39 in September, to 30 in October, to minus 10 in November, and to minus 26 this month.
That was some honeymoon.
The event that seems to have triggered the crisis in Labour support was Mr Brown's decision not to hold an October election, after having planned for it, raised money for it and allowed the expectation to run away with him. The response of the voters seems to have been that they should not give their confidence to a government that lacked confidence in itself. However, that was only the trigger; there have since been a series of administrative blunders that have made the Government look incompetent or sleazy.
Most damaging has been the coincidence of the political cycle and the economic. At the time of Labour's 1997 landslide, I remember writing an article discussing whether this would be a two or a three-Parliament defeat for the Conservatives. In fact, they have found it has been a three-Parliament problem, and they have needed four leaders to reach this point. Anyone who predicted in 1997 would be in serious trouble in the second half of their third Parliament — if they reached that stage — was likely to prove correct. Both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair, who were brilliant at winning elections, found their third Parliament was a Parliament too far.
Mr Brown would have found the third Labour Parliament difficult in any case, but he might have survived it and even won a fourth general election. It is the economic cycle that may now be doing the irreparable damage. More than half the voters are now fairly worried or very worried about the threat of a recession next year. They are right to be worried. Northern Rock and the pictures of people queueing to take their money out have damaged the Government's reputation for financial competence; that had been Mr Brown's greatest asset. Northern Rock is only part of a global crisis.
The machinery of this crisis may be hard for most people to understand. Clearly some very senior bankers have failed to understand it. Yet the consequences are clear enough. Six months ago banks had a great deal of money to lend and were more afraid of losing their share of the loans market than they were of suffering a shortage of cash in their own balance sheets. Since early August banks have been reluctant even to lend to each other, and absolutely unwilling to lend on sub-prime risks of any kind.
The world has moved from a period of easy credit to a period of tight credit: from a period when cash is on tap to a period when cash is on top. This has happened before, and will happen again, but periods of tight money are inevitably periods of suffering in business, in housing, in jobs and therefore in politics.
Some people in the Labour Party comfort themselves because public opinion is volatile, and hope it will soon recover. Yet it seems equally likely that the momentum against Labour is still gathering pace.
This no longer looks like a government that had a grip on the nation's problems. The Conservative Shadow team, Cameron, Hague, Osborne, Fox, Davis, is younger, except for Davis, brighter and more self-confident than the Labour Cabinet, harassed by events. If the credit crunch continues, debts, defaults and repossessions will mount. A family that has lost a house or a job will not vote Labour in 2010. It is no wonder that the morale of many Labour MPs has collapsed along with the polls.
In a parliamentary system, where the Government has to have a majority in the House of Commons, one cannot have a two-term limit, like the US presidency. Yet Labour's third Parliament is already looking excessively tired, and May 2010 seems a long way away. Britain has big problems to solve and an increasingly exhausted government is unlikely to solve them.

William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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The prospect of Cameron is not enticing to this Tory. The amn behind the tawdry and distasteful Tory campaign last time re-invented himself as Blair Lite as Tory leader and now faces the pridictable collapse of Blairism. Time for another makeover, DC?
What about shoving a load of Thatcher into the cocktail and seeing how that plays? Or is it just about winning power, never mind what for?
david abbott fisher, boston, USA
People don't like CHAOS. Britain has the feel of a country
that is not functioning properly, people work at a far slower
pace than we did in the 1980's.
There is an attitude of lethargy and disinterest and WHO CARES. In the end people will want change and a more
disciplined society. This government has the feel of 1979
and Britain feels close to collapse.
We are going to have to re-learn the lessons of the 1980's
which other countries outside Europe are acting on.
Basil, Bristol, England
in lrm's book the final recockning, in its context of the late 80's, lrm qualified his generally distopian outlook for the world economy by saying that one more major inflationary cycle might occur before the final crunch came. is now the hour, Lord Mogg? imho, printing money and injecting obviously
inadequate cashflow into the banking system will
fuel such a scenario, whichever flavour of government we have.
allan crook, chippenham, wiltshire, uk
Oh! How the mighty have fallen! (Thank God!)
Edwin, Bucharest,
Jonathon from Birmingham's comments are apt, but they miss one point. There cannot be English votes for English laws per se as there is no English Parliament. Westminster is the UK/GB Parliament when looked at from a Union perspective. The English parliament voted itself out of existence in 1707. So for English votes for English laws to happen there will have to be a reestablishment of the English Parliament. One cannot assume that the UK parliament can double as both. Either the House of Commons reverts to an English Parliament or a new devolved English government with a block grant is established.
John Edgar, Cupar Fife, Scotland
For what its worth, my opinion of Labour has changed from positive to negative, not because of Labour's recent run of bad luck and bad judgement, but because of the recent internationally benchmarked statistics that show levels of educational attainment in literacy have regressed. There may be many reasons for this but if Finland can provide good quality education then so can the UK. It's time Labour faced up to the fact that they have failed to improve education for the majority and unless something startling happens in our schools over the next 2 years Labour will not get my vote.
Jason White, Paris,
Time and events have outrun this Government. The seeds sown during the Blair years of corruption and scandle have flooded the Brown entree and has shown that Labour is now so rotten with their own egotism that they cannot see the wood for the trees.
JohnW, Shaftesbury, Dorset, UK
Is there anyone of integrity in Politics?
Akbar, Cambridge, UK
It isn't just Gordon Brown that is the problem. It isn't even David Cameron and the Conservative opposition. The whole of the political establishment is the real problem. There was a time when people believed in certain courses of action, got themselves elected into the House of Commons and sought to implement their ideas and philosophies. For some time now, the only objective that is common amongst our elected officials is the desire to remain elected! This means changing their beliefs to suit what they believe will keep them in office, putting a 'spin' on what is happening even if it means telling outright lies and making certain that nothing they do say or do can make them responsible or accountable for anything! What a way to run the country!
Keith Downer, London, UK
One thing you dide'nt mention, politicians are like a babies-
nappies, they have to be changed regularly, although on other-
side of that same coin, politician must have a luck of the birds
having wings-with strong feathers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
John Major woould be better example for luck and hard
work without fears, only with little education achieve so much,
knew how other half lived,(council flats, managed-small incom
all politician live in dream world, few of them get they're dream
come true: Cllr Ken Tiwari (Oxford UK)
Cllr Ken Tiwari (Independent), Oxford, United Kingdom
Saddened, but I have long visualised escalating problems in the streets arising from a declining state of affairs. We see so much incompetance from those elected with no vision for revitaliasion, cutting costs in public services by ridding of experienced staff then taking temporary labour. Low paid jobs, binge drinking, littered streets, laws past with no-one to enforce them, get pregnant and get a flat, industries closed for housing development though those industries stil thrive in other parts of Europe. A once industrial might who so long gave a two-tier health system, no minimum wage until recently, and a pension amongst the lowest in western Europe.So this is a slow death.
Romans Seja, Leicester,
When David Mellor lost his Putney seat in 1997, he told the TV interviewer: "This isn't a one-party state so sooner or later there's bound to be a change of government." Three election wins in a row is as much as any party can expect. As John Major found to his cost, four wins can result in eventual disaster. Because by then, whoever is in power, the press and the people will be sick of their faces and want a change. We're already sick of Brown so Cameron will get in, the Tories will doubtless have a couple of election wins on the trot, and then a re-vitalised Labour party will duly return to power. It's been swings-and-roundabouts like that since the war, so history will be simply be repeating itself. Incidentally, I'm beginning to wonder why Jack Straw isn't officially Deputy PM. He might be rather good at the job, though heaven help us if Balls, Miliband or Alexander takes over as leader when Brown goes. What an appalling trio of squirts!
K Philips, London, UK
With a Conservative government we have every prospect of being allowed English votes on English laws and redressing the profound unfairness of Labour's constitutional reforms. The hour for the next step on the road to home rule for England is at hand. Thank God for that.
Jonathan, Birmingham,
As both Labour and Conservative Parties steal each others policies anyway, all one gets under our ridiculous electoral system is a change of faces. Let's have Proportional Representation then at least Parliament will reflect the way people have voted. All we get a the moment is a gross distortion of the wishes of the Electorate and a cynical charade in Parliament.
Neil, Gloucestershire, England
People haven't voted *for* an opposition for many years. They simply vote *against* the government.
If there was an option on the voting form titled "none of the above" I suspect it would win by miles.
Ray, Dartmouth,
The veneer of competence which Labour's spin doctors layered over a sleazy, self-serving and smug hypocritical government has finally come loose in the past six months. Cash for honours, the collapsing of society, the break up of the United Kingdom, exorbitant taxes, a financially bankrupt nation, social services overwhelmed by uncounted immigrants, prisons bursting at the seams, Labour's illegal Iraq War; just some of the numerous disasters brought down on us by the Blair/Brown administrations.
Please, can we get rid of them now ? Do we have to wait until 2010 ? http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/Election-year/
Richard , Greater London, England
does mr brown cut as a forlorn figure lately it would seem so.
tmg , glasgow,
Brown has ridden on the wave of the global economy for the last 10 years. He has lived by it and now he will die by it. The worry is that Mr Cameron is a Blair clone. What the UK needs now is a strong leader, and there are none available in my opinion. The Tories missed the best chance they had by denying that Kenneth Clarke was the man to lead them. He is 100 times the politician then Cameron will ever be. Sadly, the powers that be did the trendy thing rather than what the UK Tory voters really wanted.
Roger T, Nottingham, UK
I have to admit, when I first saw that poll yesterday, it put a spring in my step for the rest of the day.
People are FINALLY losing confidence in this politically worn-out, intellectually exhausted, morally bankrupt and ineffective government.
May the trend continue.
Joe, Sheffield, UK
As a Brit expat living in Athens I've been watching the parallel (mis-) fortunes of the two prime ministers, Gordon Brown (UK) and Costas Karamanlis (Greece) and have predicted that both may not reach Easter. Both may hang on for a turn in their fortunes but both of their governments are holed below the water line. Karamanlis has just lost one of his closest ministers in charge of pension reform to a multi-layered scandal involving the latter's daughter, his employment of two Indians without insuring them, building illegally in a forest and now perhaps even tax evasion. Karamanlis's negative ratings at -46% are the lowest of any Greek prime minister I can remember. It may be for this reason that he's trying to push through an electoral law which will give the winning party in Greece 50 "bonus" seats, a psephological anomaly which I've never seen before and hardly democratic. Brown's poll numbers too have hit rock bottom but he will no doubt soldier on until the Labour party revolts.
Dr David Green, Athens, Greece
Happy for those who believe the Tories have the answers, that Cameron knows what he stands for (apart from himself!) and who have forgotten the lingering death of the Major govt. For others, a change of govt signals no change to our long decline as a nation and to the toxic mix of authoritarianism, sleaze and breathtaking incompetence that is the UK political scene.
julia, london,
It's amazing how far a party can go without any policies. Now we will have to see if the voters will actually vote for a Tory party without any.
Good luck, Canada has a Tory Government. It has failed to sign up to Kyoto, runs a large budget surplus but has 30% of people in its most successful city living under the poverty line.
I guess Brits want to return to daily abuse of single mothers, immigrants, unemployed and anybody that doesn't live in the south of England. Not forgetting high unemployment, high interests rates, a carved up NHS and class division. Brits liked Thatcher kicking them in the head for 10 years. I guess they still pine for the smack of firm leadership and the re-assuring thud of boot to skull.
Ian, Toronto, Canada
Good.
Betty, London, England
If you get elected on your record then Labour will soon be extinct. Yippeeeee.
Frederick, London , UK
Yes! Hurry along people and vote for any of the Lab/Con/Libs for more of the same! More E.U? Definitely! More street lawlessness? Absolutely! Destruction of our coutryside? Coming up! More taxes? No problem! More immigration? We're the ones for you!
Archie, Thrapston, England
Analysing the 198 opinion polls since May 05 (on ukpollingreport) confirms that yougov is indeed the most accurate, but even they can be out by 3%. However tracking the Weighted Moving Average shows a C lead of 10% and it's been steadily increasing at 4% per month for the last 2 months. How the PLP will react when the C Lead gets to 15% remains to be seen: they may well be clutching at Straw.
Clearly, with the election probably 26 months away, chickens should not be counted. But this is not a one poll wonder.
NBeale, London, England
Does any of this matter in the British province of the United Nations of Europe?
George Steiner, Lachine,
In any other country there would be a revolution.
gill, islamorada,
'A new poll shows support for Labour collapsing and the Conservatives hitting 45 per cent'
Until, of course, the next election, when it all falls apart once more.
Please, no counting chickens .. they are a long way from hatching.
anderson, London,