William Rees-Mogg
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Has Barack Obama developed the “Big Mo”, vital momentum that would take him through to the Democratic nomination, very possibly to the presidency? Even before the South Carolina vote there were two very experienced politicians who seemed to think that he has.
Since New Hampshire, Bill and Hillary Clinton have gone over to attack mode.
This was not in the original Hillary script. She was supposed to receive her party's nomination in a gracious way. The Clintons themselves are street fighters, trained in the tough school of Alabama politics, but they do not fight dirty unless they have to. They know that flushed faces and nasal accents do not suit a presidential image. They were fighting dirty because they were fighting scared.
From the early days in Iowa there has been only one way in which Hillary Clinton's campaign could be stopped. She had the machine, she had the support of women - though not all women like her - and she had the money too. She also had Bill Clinton, the Big Bertha of her campaign, able to lob huge shells over her head and demolish any opposition.
However, she hoped not to have to fire the big gun; he was intended to be a threat held in reserve, rather than exposed to action. Against these armaments there was one possibility - that Barack Obama would seize the role of the young hero and that he would be seen by American voters as their young champion.
We do not yet know whether Senator Obama will be able to carry his challenge through to actual nomination, despite his impressive victory in South Carolina. We shall be closer to knowing the answer on February 5, “Super-Duper Tuesday”, when 20 states will hold their primaries. Before South Carolina, Senator Clinton was ahead of Senator Obama in polls taken in California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, but her poll ratings have been weakening. In South Carolina there was a surge for Mr Obama, greater than the polls suggested. We cannot know whether there will be a similar surge on February 5. If there is a big surge, Mr Obama could run away with the race.
There is no doubt that Mr Obama has charisma. He is a remarkable orator, particularly when he gets his audience with him. His speaking style has been influenced by the great black preachers, such as Martin Luther King, but his speeches have an intellectual as well as rhetorical content.
He does not always have better scripts than John F. Kennedy, whose team of speechwriters was the most distinguished I can remember, but he has a better delivery than Kennedy, symphonic rather than staccato, more black than Boston.
I find myself worried by the figures with whom Mr Obama is compared. Martin Luther King obviously, John F. Kennedy, but also Abraham Lincoln and even Mahatma Gandhi. All four were charismatic figures who claimed to lead their nations in a new and idealistic way. What they also had in common is that they were assassinated. Such men attract the hatred of those who fear and resent their influence. When General Colin Powell was offered the Republican nomination in 1996, his wife persuaded him to reject it, on the grounds that he would be exposed to the assassination threat. Mrs Powell may have been right. The role of the first black president of the United States will be a dangerous one.
Yet the aura of danger, which Americans are understandably reluctant to discuss, adds to the charisma. Mr Obama fills the role of the young hero, always a powerful role in human psychology. Danger is part of this heroic part. Kennedy would have been saved if the bullet-proof bubble had been in place on the presidential car, but he wanted to be close to the people, his role required it.
If the surge towards Senator Obama continues he will probably win the presidency. At present the only Republican who is ahead of Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama is John McCain. He might have my vote, since I am of an age to regard him as a promising young senator, and he might beat Mrs Clinton because she is a less charismatic candidate, but he would not beat Senator Obama, if Mr Obama won the nomination.
This is not yet certain, but at this stage in 1960 Kennedy was still only a possible candidate. He had to beat Adlai Stevenson for the nomination and then Richard Nixon for the presidency. The first task proved relatively easy, though Stevenson was popular in the Democratic Party. The presidential election against Nixon was a near-run thing. But Kennedy won. Charisma is an indefinable grace, given to few politicians. Obama has it - Bill Clinton had it - but Hillary does not.
If the Obama surge continues, we shall feel the effect of it in British politics. JFK changed British politics as well as American. I remember discussing this impact with Harold Macmillan. Kennedy had created a cult of youth. Experience, which had been an asset to a leader, became synonymous with being an old fuddy-duddy. During the Profumo scandal Macmillan said that he did not move in the youthful circles in which the scandal occurred. That was taken as the proof that he was out of touch, as though a Prime Minister in his sixties had a duty to mix with the younger set in louche nightclubs.
Youth, idealism, style are powerful political weapons. On February 5, we shall see whether they have captivated America. If they do, we shall find that they have captivated Britain as well. Barack Obama could have a message for us all.
William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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Obama only seems to do well in caucus state, where most of Hillary's supporters are busy doing instead of talking, hmmm, just like the candidates.
Dwayne, Portage, USA
i think that barack obama will be the next president.
Aaron Boyse, wexford, ireland
No, Hillary will be the next president.
Woolito, Berlin, Germany
Obama is a good speaker but talk does not show me anything. I think he programed to blow off with not real proof that he can back up what he is saying. He will run out of steam soon. I think we need a President like Hillary that has experience and the will to do what we need to restore this country to good times.
Paul, Lillington, North Carolina, United States
Reagan had his foibles, and pursued American interests globally, as all US presidents do. At least he wasn't quite as immoral as JFK, even if he did have his own Rambo persona, and was also duplicitous in carrying out covert action overseas.
Why Obama would want to be seen as the new JFK should rightly defy logic, apart from the obvious fact that the American public remains in starry-eyed awe of the magnetic appeal of the beauty and power embodied in JFK. They remember the rhetoric, promises and glamour. They happily forget the blatant infidelity and countless, weekly, immoral one night stands with hookers or groupies, not just passively ignored by his close circle, but organised for him by his staff, at his instigation. His venereal disease, and his use of drugs like amphetamines. The gangster links with the likes of Sam Giancana. The relentless use of family money to buy political support, followed by vested-interest policies and appointments for political and business paybacks. His constant lying to the public about his foreign policy plans and decisions. His immoral use of overt and covert action in pursuing American interests in Central and South America, Europe, Asia and Africa, with little knowledge of what would be best for the local populations, and with scant or no regard for the best interests of the locals. His "black and white" prejudice against all politicians with any socialist, left of centre leanings, with no shades of difference allowed within his narrow-minded framework. His use of assassination, espionage, sabotage, warfare, blockades and blackmail in achieving his world political objectives.
If the glitz of the JFK illusion is peeled back what remains on show is partly the ugly use of power by someone brought up to believe he was born to rule a US given a God-directed mission to run the world. To this was added the understandable, strong free world sentiment, after WW2 and the evils of Stalinist expansion, that fighting communism in any form, anywhere in the world, justified any means to achieve the ends of victory.
jim, sydney, aust
The Clintons have been subjected to almost unprecedented levels of vitriol for the past 16 years, not only by their opponents, but increasingly by the much of the Media too.
Their problem is exacerbated by the fact that it's perfectly fine for Obama to criticise Hillary, but if Hillary (or Bill) dare criticise Obama in any way they are automatically accused of playing the race and dirty politics. I'm still trying to work out how Bill Clinton branding Obama's voting record in opposing the Iraq war as a "fairy tail", is equated to playing the "race card"!
Obama is charismatic and a fine public speaker. However, Iâve heard nothing of substance from him. His call for change is patently lacking in detail. What is it Obama proposing to change exactly and how does he intend to do so? He is not being required to explain these things, because he is so shielded as an âuntouchableâ when it comes to scrutiny of who he really is and what he stands for, at least in part because of his race.
Paul, London,
''Few remember that JFK accompliished very little. He looked fine, he spoke well, but he left much to be desired.
Linda, New York City, USA''
Does it help to know that JFK, was gunned down and only served half of his term. No brainer really.
Can Catan, Ankara, Turkey
How come I have never heard of the Clinton's political training in Alabama before? Has there been a cover-up?
Malcolm Pye, Aberdeen, Scotland
Barack Obama has appeared like a rare once in a lifetime comet. No doubt he has the divine spark - godsent to America and to the world. He has the head, heart and hands to achieve great things.
Perhaps someone should check the significance of the date and time of his birth. Franz Liszt's birth was heralded by the 1810 comet and there still echoes of his playing.
San Ying, Montreal, Canada QC
You know... I was born and raised in SC and I get so tired of reading/hearing the idiotic statements about rednecks in the south and the threat of BHO being assassinated. You can find a stereotypical 'redneck' in any state in the union. The last two US presidents to have shots fired at them were both Republicans and white. Their assailants were white. One was a former follower of Charles Manson and the other was just a mentally disturbed individual with an obsession for Jody Foster. This isnt 1968.
Redneck, Columbia, USA
I knew it began with an A and it couldn't be Alaska..........
I'll bet Moggie is getting his leg pulled (in a very genteel way) tonight.
Richard B, Plymouth,
Yes, Arkansas politics ... or Chicago politics re Hillary.
Jim, Washington, DC,
I'm afraid that the long haul now likely for Mr. Obama, as instigated by the South Carolina result, will impoverish him.
Andrew Waldron, Bournemouth, Dorset, UK
Is it Barack's fault that he is younger than Mrs. Clinton? How then, would one expect him to have the same experience as Hilary. What experience does Hilary have more than Barack? Being the wife of a President? I was laughing yesterday, when she was talking about her invitation to South Africa by Nelson Mandela, she was invited as the wife's president not the president of the USA. Anyway, who is she trying to full? Yes she went to South Africa so what?. She might full those who are not educated, but where was she one million Rwandese people (many relatives of mine) were killed because her husband refused to call Genocide by its name? I now have to follow the elections closely because this will be my first time to vote, I have realized that they angry people, users, don't know the truth, hypocrites, able to do anything to get what they want. Last but not least, I don't think Americans want any of the Monicas in the White house again.
Isabella, Rockville, MD
To Mark Orange,
I am too young to have listened to MLK or JFK, but the South Carolina speech was awesome. I have never heard anyone speak like that.
Bee, London,
What is it with you people? Alabama Shmalabama, leave the guy alone. Look at you all, lining up to make your point about how he's wrong and you --- oooh, you --- you're right as right can be. Well done. Do you know any more important distinctions you could share with us?
sue, oxford,
It's so easy to make promises. It's far more difficult to actually do things. Obama's record is short and empty. Clintons far fuller and gives indication of what she believes. I would rather vote for proven abilities even when I disagree on some things, than vote for pie in the sky and a chicken in every pot.
Few remember that JFK accompliished very little. He looked fine, he spoke well, but he left much to be desired.
Linda, New York City, USA
I think there has to be a serious risk Senator Obama will not survive to accept the nomination. The quality of the other candidates indicates to me that in that event Mr Gore will come over the hill at the last minute and clean up.
On this hypothesis, the Democrats seem to have a choice between high risk, incompetence and mediocrity.
Wow. Gets more and more like here, doesn't it?
David Williams, Eastnor, England
I like your assessment Mr Rees-Mogg. Pity about 'Alabama' (or Arkansas), but no one is perfect!
Dagenham Jeff, Dagenham, Essex
As so very often, I wish you weren't right.
Assassination isn't hard, so long as the killer is prepared to die doing it; and there are many more than enough fanatical redneck racists in America to give us fear that Senator Obama won't survive to win the nomination or the Presidency, or to lead long if he does; and the consequences of such a murder would, highly predictably, be horrific.
Noel Falconer, COUIZA, France
I have an uneasy feeling that Obama, like JFK, Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, is too dangerous for corporate America. Hilary Clinton, on the otherhand, is too hysterical ( just look at the photos with her éyes popping out or watch her shouting her victory slogans) for the rest of the world.
Christopher , Stockholm,
Sir, you have provided what is the most well-thought out, the most knowledgeable and the most up-to-date appraisal of this fine young senator from Illinois that I have yet read. Thank you for this! You are the only one on either side of the atlantic, too, so far as i know to dwell on the double-edged nature of the comparisons that are being made with respect to him. However, I feel he is too smart to make the enemies that those great men before him did - his idealism is too well tempered with pragmatism for that to happen. At least I hope so!
Penelope , arundel, uk
"The Clintons themselves are street fighters, trained in the tough school of Alabama politics..."
You meant "Arkansas politics," right?
Thomas Coyle, Bangor, U.S.
Very well said. You are as eloquent on paper as Obama is at the podium.
I will now be looking for you articles. A very sensible read.
Stanley, houston, Texas
The Clintons hail from Arkansas and not from Alabama.
Sylvia Maier, New York, USA,
"His speaking style has been influenced by the great black preachers, such as Martin Luther King, BUT his speeches have an intellectual as well as rhetorical content."
"But"? Clumsy and silly, rather than intentionally offensive - I assume?
J, London, UK
Young son.
In politics, the Clintons were trained in even tougher terrain than Alabama (George Wallace's territory). Their zone would have been Arkansas, a small southern state, I know, but for the record, it should be noted that Arkansas isn't Alabama even though both are rich in A's. Much love. GObama!
jacques ramos, Zenobia, State of Grace
Do you mean that the Clintons were trained at the Arkansas school of politics, not Alabama? If the latter is intended, it could benefit from elaboration.
James Stevens, St Paul,
I certainly hope Obama doesn't become the next JFK. If I remember correctly whilst JFK ended up in the White House, he didn't serve his full term. Let's hope BO (what a set of initials) can serve 2 of them.
Mikios, Hong Kong, China
"The Clintons themselves are street fighters, trained in the tough school of Alabama politics,"
Huh?
r. burns, tampa, USA
Barak Obama is the first major American politician to have the gift of public speaking since Ronald Reagan. Americans vote their hearts and it helps even more if the candidate is articulate and intelligent. Obama appears to be a successor to Kennedy, and two Kennedys have now endorsed him.
John Burke,
Santa Cruz, CA, USA
John Burke, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
I also find Obama to be a person we can trust.
Jerry Payne, Castro Valley, CA, US
The fact your say Obama has a better delivery than President Kennedy is just opinion not fact. President Kennedy made some of the best speeches of the 20th century. Before you put Obama in that class he has to make a great speech and he has not yet.
Mark, Orange, California
As a woman who traditionally falls into two minority groups I am most encouraged. I am encouraged because America has reacted to the demands of the country based on the experience, class and sheer ability for our next presidential candidate to be selected. Do not be influenced by what others thoughts are in your choice. Conduct research and make your choice based on your research.
Be well,
Maria
Maria , Farmington Hills, USA/MI
God bless you Barack. If he wins, I wonder what will be of the ever smug Europeans. The Americans offer a 'black' man and a women, what of Europe? A continent where immigrants come out of it more angry and despondent than anywhere else in the world. Three cheers for America.
Can Catan, Ankara, Turkey
Obama embodies the kind of change and fresh start the US needs after the devisive and partisan and less tolerant years of Bush. This is a chance for the US that they should not let go from many aspects, beginning from the need for unity of the American people themselve over to the tuning of the USA to the higher expectations the world has from the USA. He is extraordinaryl intelligent with great common sense and humilty. So, hopefull he will get the nomination and the rest will take care of itself. He will not only inspire the USA but also the rest of the world.
Keep fingers crossed that his destiney is not too similar to that of the great 4 men you mentioned in your article.
Theodor
Theodor, Tynemouth, UK
Surely you mean Arkansas : "trained in the tough school of Alabama politics," don't you? Bill Clinton comes from Hope, and it was of Arkansas that he was governor.
Isabelle, london, UK