William Rees-Mogg
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I am one of those who admire David Cameron as Leader of the Opposition. I find his position as a liberal Conservative sympathetic; in this he is not unlike the Republican John McCain, who would be my choice in the American presidential race. Cameron has the gift of rising to the occasion in his big speeches. He takes his decisions quickly and rationally. He has a steely quality that he will need if he becomes Prime Minister.
All of this is fine and, indeed, quite impressive. Of course, there are policy issues on which I think he is mistaken. I regard academic selection as essential to providing the opportunities for gifted students; selection should not be confined to private education, which has been given an inordinate advantage.
There is, however, one Conservative commitment that makes no sense, and does not match the reality of the world's economic outlook. The Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, took a leaf out of Tony Blair's book - always a dodgy thing to do. Before the 1997 general election Mr Blair promised that Labour would follow Conservative spending plans, in order to protect his party against the suspicion that it would be recklessly extravagant. Mr Osborne has promised to follow Labour spending plans, in order to protect his party against the public's fear that it would cut welfare spending. That is a Conservative commitment, and must have been approved by Mr Cameron himself.
The first difficulty is the time scale. Labour is behind in the opinion polls and one can assume that Gordon Brown will not call an election while he looks like losing it. Therefore the next election could be postponed until the last possible date, May/June 2010. The Parliament that follows could last to the middle of 2015. No one knows what the economic situation will be then. Labour spending plans, formulated in present conditions, may be irrelevant to the circumstances of the next Parliament. This argument alone makes the Osborne commitment a mistake.
However, there is more to it than that. The Government has virtually lost control of the budget balance. It may be necessary to raise taxes substantially in order to prevent the budget deficit escalating. The Government will not raise taxes by £8 billion, though some people think it should. In 2010 whoever wins the general election will probably have to make a choice between higher taxes and cuts in expenditure. The commitment to Labour spending plans could therefore become a commitment to higher taxes to pay for the spending. The Tories can't afford to become the high tax party.
There is also the threat of a serious recession, particularly in the housing market, which itself affects consumer spending and government revenue. I would be pessimistic about the economic prospect in the next two years; I expect there to be a downturn in the US and here. If it does happen, unemployment will rise, government spending will rise, but revenues will fall. In those circumstances, it would be quite ridiculous for a Conservative government to be committed to spending plans that might become wholly inappropriate.
The Government may be making this risk even worse. Alistair Darling, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, has introduced his £30,000 levy on “non-domiciled” foreigners in its least acceptable form at the most unsuitable time. A simple scheme, such as Mr Osborne proposed, might have been widely accepted, but this has in fact been an Inland Revenue scheme liable to cause maximum anxiety. The Revenue is always closing loopholes that are the air vents by which the tax system breathes.
The result is that more than half of a sample of 22,000 wealthy foreign clients say they will either leave Britain or remove some of their assets. The London housing market depends on wealthy foreigners, just as much as Chelsea Football Club. The rest of the housing market usually follows London's lead, up or down.
The City of London, which is Britain's greatest economic asset, depends on the prosperity of global finance. Unfortunately, global finance is still suffering from the credit crunch. It may take several years to reach complete recovery. The City may have to adjust by “downscaling” its own staff. Redundancies will mean that houses have to be sold; if the wealthy foreigners are also moving out, there will be two important groups of London homeowners who want to sell at the same time, but no obvious new buyers. Commercial property is already in recession; houses in London would follow, and the house price recession would eventually spread to the rest of the country.
These are, of course, exactly the circumstances in which the Labour Government would be likely to be turned out. Labour would be blamed, reasonably enough, for the recession, the loss of jobs, the collapse of house prices and the dispossessions. The Conservative Party will need to be free to reconstruct the national finances. Only if we now enjoy a couple of years of stable prosperity would it be prudent to commit to Labour spending plans. Yet if there were to be a couple of years of prosperity under Labour, it is unlikely the Conservatives would win a general election.
The Conservatives have reason to want to defend themselves against accusations that they would cut social expenditure. These allegations have been made by the Labour Party at every general election for years. But the economic situation is already worse than it was when the pledge was first made. In 2010 Britain may still be in a budget crunch. The Conservatives do not want to be tied to Labour mistakes.
William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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the conservatives dont want to come to power yet, they must wait until labour has completely run out of stupid ideas, the uk is on the brink of collapse and a move to the right is the only way ahead . then socialism , political correctness and social engineering can be buried forever.
jon gale, lymington, ENGLAND
In general agreement but the idea that wealthy foreigners will be driven out by a £30000 levy is laughable. Even if it were true the idea that we should be concerned is even more so. They contribute nothing to the nation - quite the opposite - and should be booted out as a matter of course along with all their more impoverished brothers and sisters.
Steve, Macclesfield,
Sadly I think WR-M is being too optimistic.
The Government's inablility to have sorted-out the Northern Rock crisis even now shows that across the board they are all at sea
The rush will soon be on in Westminster to export our problems.
Stealth and trickery will be used to get the UK into a Federated Europe with the Euro as fast as possible, and before it is too late
Our politicians can then an even easier life simply blaming others.....and still collecting all of the vast salaries and perks of office.
For the nation as a whole it could be like jumping from the frying pan into the fire?
Michael Blatchford, Bath, UK
Food, warmth and shelter are the three basic necessities. If food and fuel become cheaper this is considered a Good Thing. If housing becomes cheaper this is considered a Bad Thing. The only reason for this seems to be that people can borrow against rising house prices and then spend on (imported) consumer goods, a bubble economy if ever there was one. If house prices fall we may have to start earning real money instead of speculating on the price of one asset. Likewise, if the financial services sector continues to find still more ingenious ways of going bankrupt we may even have to start making things again, things that people actually want to buy. And if the wealthy foreigners leave London and Chelsea Football Club go down the tubes, that would be the icing on the cake.
Ben Galim, Haifa, Israel
As far as I'm concerned the mega rich can take their money and leave. They're inflating prices with indiscriminate spending, clogging up London's streets with their Bentleys and generally making the rest of us feel like inadequate paupers in our own land. We're clearly no longer a sovereign nation if our entire economy relies on the patronage and fashion trends amongst a few hundred Arab princes, Russian oligarchs and international financiers.
Dave, London, UK
A collapse in the economy you say? Hooray! I remember a time when homes were for living in, not to profit from at the expense of those trying to buy a home for their family. Maybe this will in turn bring some realism to property prices, obliterate the 6 to 7 times your income to buy a home and at the same time, negate the need for sucking more credit to pay the mortgage.
Lailaa Carr, Brentford, UK
To some people who live in our northern cities the roof started to fall in a good few years ago! It was nothing to do with high finance, economics, or who was making the news at the time. It was nothing to do with how well the country was doing or how smart the leader was looking on television, it was the feeling of change, irredeamable change. It was also a feeling of humiliation, degradation, betrayal and abandonment. The disenfranchisement, the simple fact of ones mother queueing at the post office for her pension in fear of being floored by a young ruffian and her livelihood for the next few weeks torn from her fingers. This was the repayment of bringing up a family in the war years. The scrimping and scraping, and eventually getting through but also getting old at the same time. To many, many, people who had no alternative but to put their faith in their leader of the day. When change came along they couldn't understand who had started this crazy thing, what sense did it make?
Roy Smith, Tauranga, New Zealand
I agree that the Tories need to 'distance' themselves from Labour's spending plans. They will need room to maneuvoure. But the Tories, at the moment seem determined to pledge to 'out-spend' Labour.
I listened with astonishment to yesterday's proposals to provide 'care' for every new mother at home for up to 6 hours a day for the first week: to include some light housework and preparing meals for other family members. What a ridiculous waste of money: that is what the father, grandparents, relatives and friends should be doing - not the state. We don't seem able to afford to care for the elderly in our society who really do need help - yet the Conservaties seem to think it is a good idea to spend taxpayers money providing care workers to cook and clean for new mothers.
Donna Walker, Effingham, Surrey
Only in Britain could an economic adjustment which would benefit everybody be regarded as a bad thing. At the moment half the country can't buy a house and almost all the other half struggles for 25 years to pay for one. Only the small percentage of wealthy people float above this pernicious burden. Bring on the collapse. 90% falls should be our hope. And if the Russian Mafia oligarchs and tribes of parasitic Saudi princelings (is there a Saudi who isn't one?) infesting London don't like it - well tough.
eric campbell, harrogate, uk
Its a weak argument on cutting of social expenditure, since recent reports from the DWP suggest that Parnell and his friends are about to do just that. It seems that times are beginning to change and talk of reducing or eliminating benefit has become the new macho politic.
If Brown and Darling are pushed on public finances, they will have cut to anyway, as the impending over balance in the books means that something will have to give.
Its possible to manage social budgets with off balance sheet accounting for a while, but then demands are made which cannot be fulfilled. PFi is one example where hospital budgets are being compressed due to the higher costs of PFI hospitals which have fewer beds and patients. Its only a matter of time, as Brown spend during the Boom years like a drunk with a lottery win..creating no reserve for the down times. The police pay award is symptomatic of a government that has run out of cash.
Danny, Manchester,
We should all be grateful that Mystic Mogg is predicting doom again this year. This means that the chances of an upturn must be very strong.
Bob, London,
For the past 10 years there has been no real economic management of the country because no real difficult choices have had to be made. 2010 onwards (possibly sonner) it looks as if one of the two major political parties will have to make some real decisions that detrmines the future path of the country. I fear it will be more of the same. It is notoriosuly difficult to "cut" public spending and even halt the rise of public spending....until things are so bad that there are more losers than winners...the academics call it the punctuated equilibrium theory...until then the party goes on and the Govt's current account will be full used.
Ash Kumar, Herts, England
.Matching labour's expenditure is political suicide. It merely keeps them in an unelectable position. The Tories need an alternative to the many present failed policies. They need to make a committment to reduce the role of the state, petty legislation, over-zealous health and safety, nanny state policies, excessive and wasteful economic policy etc. As it stands, it appears almost as if the present government have been infiltrated by zealots intent on bringing down the whole country. Following that lead is madness!
The Pre-Thatcher 'brain drain',excessive taxation/spending brought the country to it's knees just as wasteful spending/taxation is resulting in the financial drain today. The smoking ban was a labour own-goal - most smokers and drinkers are from the working classes - an attack on their own supporters. Tories, voted against this ban that was realistically more of a threat to personal liberties than health promotion. Labour=control: Tories should emphasise liberty!
winstonian, Darlington, UK
I agree with Mr Rees-Mogg on his prognosis for the economic situation over the next two years, ie until the end of 2009; however, there could well be a significant upturn in 2010, the year in which Gordon Brown will no doubt call the next general election. At that stage he could well be a formidable candidate although I still think the result will be a hung parliament. While it's still too far out to call, the present policy mix of the Conservatives on education and the economy is not very coherent - and here I entirely agree with R-M's analysis. The revelation that 70 Tories employ relatives in their political offices reminds me that they have much in common with their Greek counterparts who are currently embroiled in the worst scandal to hit modern Greece. In Greece the FAFA principle - a friend of a friend of a friend - is employed in all political appointments. Cameron, like Hercules, needs to divert a river to clean out his stables. Perhaps he could open up the Thames barrier?
Dr David Green, Athens, Greece