Mogg wrote a book called " The Great Reckoning: How the World Will Change in the Depression of the 1990's" published in January 1992, just before the biggest bull run ever.

Disregard him.

Bill David, Winchester,

William Rees-Mogg co-authored a book called "The Great Reckoning" . It warned of economic problems, like we are having today. The prediction was for the 90s, but they said it would be delayed if a major invention sprang up. They were correct! The Internet delayed The Great Reckoning until today.

Bryan DeLaney, Greenville, SC, USA

The beginning of the end or the pinnacle of American prosperity began on that "Second great day of infamy" way back on that cold December day in 1996 when Greenspan pronounced his "irrational exuberance remarks when the Dow was at a meager 6000.Trillions of debt later, we'll see 6000 again!

Marty, Woodstock, Md,

The price of housing in US has gone from 12% of total income to 40+% of total income in the last 40 years. This one fact has set the US on a course for complete economic disaster of unimagineable proportions. It's all about greed of the weathy.

Douglas, Los Angeles, United States

We're not going to have a soft landing.
We're not going to have a hard landing.
We are going to have a CRASH LANDING.

Study the stock market in the summer of 1929. On August 15, 1929, the Fed raised rates from 5 to 6%. Time Magazine called the next day "Bear Friday" 2 months BEFORE THE CRASH.

Fazsha, Millbrae, CA,

I don't hear anything new here. Some of the observations made in this article are twisted to increase shock value. The global economy is undergoing a structural change. The depression was a structural change. We'll be fine. Let's just adjust and take care of each other and take care earth.

Chris, Portland, OR

No matter what - something that has been true for ages, whether there be a recession or a booming market - a person should only buy what they have money for and should not use lines of credit. Lines of credit have kept people prisoners to their debts, until people accept this - hold on for the ride.

Elizabeth, Rochester Hills, MI , USA

One of the most successful things hitler did was to capitalize on the poverty created in Germany by the wall street crash, focusing it into anger against minority groups, dividing and conquering. Judging by some of the comments left here that process seems in danger of returning.

Ciaran, Derry,

nobody can predict the future,but if you write that, it does not make a long column

jason palmer, london,

Please spare us the Old Testament style Reckonings readers! It's just change that's all. And of course, with the world spinning as it does, what goes around comes around. Rich/Poor are two sides of the same coin (hmm, a pun!) so it's obvious that not everyone is going to be hurt by a recession.

Jay Davies, Brighton, UK

Happy Birthday - I don't always agree with your political views but I admire your style of writing greatly and I congratulate the editors of the Times for giving you the platform. Keep up the good work!

Joseph Hewins, Farnborough, Hampshire

Interesting how the present oil, debt, banking, market & food crisis are all happening at the same time-- and I would add natural disasters like the China earthquake and the recent Katrina huracane. But these events were forseen in Matthew 24, so we did have warning.

Carlos A. Cedillo, Mexico, Mexico

The great stockmarket fall has already happened nearly a decade ago. Now we have the typical DJA sine wave w/bubbles as outliers. The sine fluctuates at DJA 10,000, which means that it will rise to ~13,000 and dip to ~9,000 several times over a period of 30-40 years. At 9,000 BUY BUY BUY!!

Marc, Los Angeles, USA

'I am afraid that this article is intellectually feeble.

Marek, London,'


No, this article is from someone who has experienced it. Show some respect please.

I have been a trader in the stock market for 20 years and you ain't seen nothing yet! Cash is king.

Keith, Newton Abbot, UK

In America the price of pretrol has raised the price of other things such as food, clothes and materials. The mortgage debacle have left people with no equity or savings. More and more banks are insolvent including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Sounds like a depression to me.

Lati, Orlando, Florida

I think the speed of our future recovery will depend on how fast we can change to adapt to increasing cost of energy/oil. If these increase, then all costs increase. We need to look at environmentally friendly alternatives and encourage creative energy efficient technological solutions.

Kim Domnick, torbay, uk

Unfortunately the Labour government have have helped to exacerbate the situation through their lax controls of immigration, the welfare budget, and failure to identify public opinion. Prudence has now departed the scene and only those who have in the past practised thrift will survive and grow.

Robert, Hull., East Yorks.,

Once again the ' elite ' are talking down the economy. Remember what Schumpeter said about intellectuals. There are signs of weakness here, generally in Democratic States. In this town there are thousands of jobs going paying over $100,000. If you want a depression vote for Obama the Magnificent

Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA TX

Where are our tax-cuts to stimulate our economy? Why cant our government see that they cannot simply continue to increase taxes, particularly in challenging times... the Iron Chancellor was a PR myth and our government is as bancrupt in ideas as our economy may soon become...
Happy B'day William...

Roy Neilson, Liverpool, England

What does Nostradamus have to say on this? If it's that big an event, he must have foreseen it...I'm surprised that nobody has (with 20:20 hindsight) dredged up has uncannily accurate prediction of 'the credit crunch'...

Rob, Southampton, UK

For ten years there have been gathering economic storm clouds, invariably denied by the Great and the Good. Sometimes I think they are stupid, at others deliberately
economical with the truth. The accepted political solution to our present problems is to print money, disastrous in the long run!

Brian Lewis, Manila, Philippines

The Second World War pulled the world out of the Great depression. Unfortunately, this depression is being amplified by rampant oil price inflation. The balance of power has shifted and we (the west) are in deep trouble. I don't think war will get us out this time.

Adrian Gilbert, Tonbridge,

Happy birthday William. Good article on economic arguments and to look at the effects of a prolonged recession (depression). The greatest fear is that the economic woes will cause social unrest on a scale we have not witnessed before. As for politics, we need a a Government of National Unity!

Steve Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK

This is not a mere financial crisis, but a civilizational one. The whole array of scientific-technological possibilities available in order to close the social justice gap that has plagued Mankind since ever is out of tune with the public and international policies in most countries.That's the task.

Geraldo Lino, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Happy birthday! For all our sakes.

Only inflation DOES liquidate debt - GOVERNMENT debt. It is the mechanism our rulers use to defraud savers.

It is driven by money supply times speed of circulation. The latter is very low so the former has risen, but when the credit crunch eases . . . !

Noel Falconer MEcon, COUIZA, France

Happy Birthday
Credit cruch = changing from irresponsible lending to responsible lending,
Housing crash = house prices changing to long term average of 3.5 times earnings,
Solutions = US raise petrol taxes to $9, and refund tax - e.g. $1.20 tax would refund $600; UK switch to EFTA from the EU

Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK

William, you are so partisan in your comment pieces it is unfunny.

We won't go into a depression. I would suggest you take less glee in the economic fortunes vis a vis the government. It sounds like you want a depression so people vote out Gordon Borwn, a bit selfish don't you think?

Martin Caldwell, London, UK

"This recession could easily tip into a depression", Ah ah ah!

I feel very good today knowing that some selected people are making so much money, hey good luck to them! I will persist in telling no lies to the general public making no money. I am not very clever.

Giancarlo, London, England

quite a lot of these comments are sceptical of the threat that we face. Surely it is obvious that after a massive run up in debt that there will be a bust when the credit tap is turned off.

A year ago now the tap was indeed turned off and it has proved impossible so far to turn it on again.

charles stuart, nottingham, uk

Speaks volumes of the so called experts/analysts/gurus who shamelessly flaunt their pseudo skills in financial management when the going is good! To date not a single government or financial expert is ringing the alarm bells about the really bad shape the world's finances are in.

Benjamin Alvares, Mumbai, India

The Great Reckoning and Blood In The Streets are once again proving to be prophetic. They not only explain what is coming, but more importantly, "why".

John, Camden, Michigan, USA

Happy birth day. I wish you all the best. I enjoy your articles very much.

Dr A Z Shahrak, Woking, UK

Recessions will always hit those with debts hardest, whereas those without debts who manage to keep their job or who have savings, will be least affected by the latest economic downturn. It is that simple.

Peter, Geneva, Switzerland

Financial indicators mirror 1928 amazingly! Be prepared when a society who's fundamentals are completely incorrect and a corporate world with no concern for citizens get corrected! It will be very difficult for many!

Economic inequality will be rectified. One way or another. Beware economies!

T. Robert Malthus, Dorking, Surry

These problems are closely related to the rapid rise of oil price, which is to a very large extent driven up by the War against Iraq and the possible war against Iran. Some countries are endangering its own economy as well as the world economy. They are the real threat to the world economy

Zhang, Wuhan, China

Time to start piling into equities! Mystic Mogg is predicting doom again!

Wilf, London,

I think all the posters are completely missing the point of this article:

HAPPY BIRTHDAY BILL! You old dog, keep up the good work

chris, Prague, CZ

William Rees-Mogg has been warning of a cataclismic depression since at least his 1991 book "the Great Reckonning".

In short he sounds like he knows what he's talking about - but IMHO hasn't a clue.

Peter, LONDON , UK

Why stop in 2000? If you insist on describing each uptick as "just" a bubble - housing, tech, Lawson - you can take the "current" crisis all the way back to the oil shock in 1974. Maybe further - I wasn't interested in economics at that age!

Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK

My Father (born 1890) lived through the depression and two major wars taught me one thing - "Don't go into debt; if you can not afford something, do without until you can pay for it."
Living in debt has become a way of life for most and now is the time that they will have to pay for it.

P Barrett, Valletta, Malta

I was born in the US 1925, my father a doctor. When the impression hit, people did not pay the doctor, so my family was really up against it and I remember We struggled and came to Britain (parents were scots) in 1934 to start from scratch - it was grim.

Dr J Findlater, carnforth,

The view from here is a bit gloomy as well.

USA , writer, no answers which are not contradicted with in a short time period.

Fannie & Freddie are symptoms not causes. Bank and Wall Street as well.

Personal responsibility has given way to 'collective' blame.
Wait and see, seeds are sown.

P A Pointon, Wilbraham, USA

What a bunch of crybabies. This from the crew that won WWII. Get a grip.

As an atmospheric scientist I find all the doom and gloom about climate change fascinating. Anyone who believes the climate can be predicted 50 years in advance is scientifically naive.

Gene, Colorado Springs, USA

Japan has still not recovered from its bubble. It's now 18 years since it started there and there's no reason to think the same won't happen to the U.S.

Steven, London, UK

I have to say that I tend to agree with much of the article. Though he has neglected to mention the mounting climate problems we face, which will require enourmous capital investment, and the start of peak oil, which is going to cripple the Western nations. Basically, we are now in over our heads.

Paul, Carlow, Ireland

Our circumstances have nothing to do with the '20s and '30s. If we screw up big, the reasons will be altogether different in detail. I expect a big inflation long before we're anywhere near a big depression. This time, stock prices may rise with inflation. Who knows ? The bubble this time was in real estate, not stocks, and only housing related stocks have been savaged. I expect a long, but relatively shallow, slowdown.

Henry Barth, Castlebaldwin, Ireland

Don't fret....Brown will tax us out of it!. Have a very Happy Birthday, Willie :-)

Beverley, Bilston, UK

While the past is a good guide, we will not rerun the 1930s. This downturn has some unique features that may make it even worse. Global warming is irreversible, and so will its consequences be: food shortages, flood damage. Exhaustion of oil & other resources can't be reversed. We're in big trouble.

Meic Pearse, Houghton NY, U.S.A.

Bill Rees-Mogg predictions are accurate, those who don't want to believe them do so at their own peril. Already US Gov. is announcing they are going to buy Fannie Mae&Freddie Mac shares to save them. One can imagine where all these trillions are going to come from, printing money and more inflation.

John, Atlanta, GA, USA.

Hi, I was born in 1922 and even although only seven in 1929 I remember it vividly----it has tempered my life! My parents had a small grocery shop in Southampton about 1 mile from Thorneycrofts shipyard. This depression lasted until 1937 when Britain began rearming for WW2. It was disastrous!

John Phillips, kelowna BC, Canada, BC

I agree but we need a one nation government looking after all of its citizens, not just those who have made it but those who have not. I look forward to a one nation tory government like Winston Churchills or even Ted Heath. DC is wrong for this task.

James , Brighton, England

You've been saying this for years.

"But you cannot save six- trillion-dollar institutions without suffering on a large scale." I was told at Oxford that generalisations should be based on more than surmise.

I am afraid that this article is intellectually feeble.

Marek, London,

A most sobering article, fully of reasoned argument, but one I hope that is very wide of the mark.

John Gregory, Cambridge,

No mention of global warming either and the potential impact of imminent carbon trading into the all rather depressing mix?

Consumers will be paying more for just about everything anyway, business is going to pass on the pain for its polluting and it'll take many years for the market to stabilise

Dale, Australia,

Well us oldies are generally right. The writers last sentence is correct . "we may see dramatic changes in politics". The sooner the better, I say!

Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia