William Rees-Mogg
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It begins to look as though the real presidential election in the United States may have been the primary battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Senator Clinton's passionate fight for the nomination will still be remembered in a generation's time. As a result, Senator Obama, having defeated Mrs Clinton, looks almost unbeatable in the presidential race itself.
Of course, unexpected upsets happen in elections. No US presidential election becomes a certainty until the Electoral College has voted. But the McCain campaign, though refreshingly decent and rational, has attracted little attention. Americans admire John McCain as a war hero, but that is not enough. He seems cast to play the role of Pompey to Obama's Julius Caesar. The Fates, having taken their decision, are reluctant to change the cast list.
That makes Mr Obama's visit to the Middle East, Afghanistan and Europe particularly important. He is being treated as virtually the President-elect. He will inevitably form first impressions that may remain with him in his years of power. There will be foreign statesmen who impress him, and others who do not. He will make his own judgment of the prospect of success in Afghanistan and Iraq. He will better understand that the problems of the Middle East and Europe are more complex than they had seemed in the briefing rooms of Washington.
Most US Presidents start with a preconception about Europe. They usually share the common American view that Europe is destined to follow American constitutional development, and will become the United States of Europe. The European nations will progressively transfer power to the EU and the European Court of Justice, just as the individual states transferred their sovereignty to the federal government and the Supreme Court of the United States.
Over time, most Presidents come to see the limitations of this view. They have to recognise that such a Europe would not be a particularly reliable partner for the US. They come to understand the serious cultural hostilities to the US, particularly in France. They are taught by events - as in Afghanistan - that Britain is the only European power that can be relied on as an ally which possesses significant military capacity.
In his visits to European countries, Mr Obama will meet very few critics of this federal concept of European development. He is not likely to meet many Eurosceptics, though, in David Cameron, he will meet a party leader opposed to the federalist Lisbon treaty, and, in Gordon Brown, a Prime Minister who as Chancellor blocked Britain joining the euro. But in general he will meet Europhiles who are unlikely to tell him of the true hostility to this European project among the European voters.
American policy towards European integration should be based on the principles of the American Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution. Americans should not help European bureaucrats to impose on us a European constitution that they would not dream of accepting for themselves. Thomas Jefferson, an over-ardent advocate of the French Revolution, even during the Terror, defined the American Constitution in terms of liberty and democracy.
The EU admits to a democratic deficit which has not been made good by the Constitutional treaty or by the Lisbon treaty. The essential facts that Mr Obama needs to know are that the Constitutional treaty was rejected by referendums in France and the Netherlands, that the Irish rejected the Lisbon treaty, with much the same content, and that the British have been refused a referendum on the Lisbon treaty despite manifesto promises at the last general election. Eighty per cent of British voters want a referendum; the British feel cheated by their Government.
The Lisbon treaty is the one European constitutional proposal still on the table. Since the Irish voted “no”, it has been kept alive on the pretext that the Irish - the only nation to have had a referendum - can be forced to change their minds. Despite the pressure from Nicolas Sarkozy of France, that is unlikely to happen, if only because of the timing. The French are already in their six-month term in the chair of the EU. President Sarkozy only has until the end of this year to make the Irish change their vote. France will be succeeded in January by the Czech Republic, which is relatively Eurosceptic, and has neither the will nor the power to change the Irish vote.
Next June will see European elections, in which Declan Ganley, the man who organised the successful Irish “no” campaign, is considering running 400 candidates as a Europe-wide referendum against the Lisbon treaty. In May 2010, there will probably be a British general election, in which the Conservative Party will be committed to a British referendum on Lisbon, if European ratification is not complete. Britain is a big European power and will almost certainly vote “no”.
No one can know how events can develop. It is not necessary, or desirable, for Mr Obama to take an immediate view. The constitution for Europe is a matter for Europeans, as the Eurosceptics argue. Yet it is important that the senator should not take the wrong view. It would be a serious mistake for the US to base its policy on the expectation that the Lisbon treaty will in the end be ratified; there is at least an even chance that it never will be. Or it might disrupt Europe's vulnerable unity.
The next President of the United States may have to deal with the Europe of Brussels or with the Europe of the Nations. He may have to deal with a looser Europe or with a core of European countries moving to an exclusive federation, led by France and Germany. He might even receive a proposal for a European free trade area to join Nafta. He should keep an open mind and open options on these European issues.

William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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I think after the recent global debacle's and with what the US Empire is costing them the American population will eventually see that a return to the principals of their revolution is the only way forward.
They have allowed the federal govement to get too big.
We the EU should not do the same.
George Willis, Maryport, UK
I wander why so many Americans read Times online, is it because the American News media is so bad these days that if you want something intelligent you have to read foreign media.
Evgeni, Sofia, Bulgaria
The latest McCain TV spot is anything but decent or rational. Obama's trip seems to have panicked the McCain campaign into revealing its true Republican colors, and they are ugly.
Tommy K, Pasadena, USA
Curious that even the foreign media seem to have elected Obama the Great long before the actual election. This is a sad day for journalism, which already has long been known for its extreme liberal bias. The polls in the United States have Obama and McCain running almost even, with a lot undecided.
George Williams, San Antonio, USA
Your article was very well written and interesting but I wanted to respond to some of the comments, the average American is too worried about their own personal economic affairs and does not really care if the EU finally ends up looking like a US of E or morphs into a government of its own creation.
Alex Peirce, Philadelphia, USA
Europe forgets that Americans escaped to get away from not being allowed to have an opinion about how their country was run. We do not need any advise from other contries trying to get us to vote for a man who is a "child" when it comes to experience. Isn't it odd at how so many keep coming here.
Marsha, Seattle, USA
I agree with Rees-Mogg. And this is a well written article. I am in my early 20s. Everyone in the UK from the age of 30 and below have no idea why we are in the EU. We are more interested in Canadian/American affairs. To us the EU seems like something our parents go into, and we'll just pull out of.
John Wayland, Colchester, Britain
Franz, Vienna -
Hey, hang on a minute - we don't want the UK as a 51st state. From all the UK news, it's become way worse over there than here in the US, if that's possible. Yes, a lot of Americans think there will be a United States of Europe, that's true, but only because of Revelations.
Ashlea, Idaho, US
The same tired anti-EU rhetoric from Mr Mogg, pretending Englands place (special relationship?) is in the USA and not in the Union.
Yet US Citizens that I meet seem unaware of any such special relationship; they quite rightly just see England as another country in Europe.
Get over it Mr Mogg!
Peter GODDARD, Le Rouret, France, EU
The media want Obama for President. CNN barely bother to report on McCain's speeches or events, so I barely bother to watch them anymore.
Obama is an intelligent man who knows nothing, hence his speech about removing troops out of Iraq to face al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Expect more deaths in Iraq.
Stephen Rothbart, Prague, Czech Republic
We should kick Britain out of the EU. In no other member state you would have a major journalist saying "I prefer having the Americans colonizing me than cooperating with other European Countries." Why you brits do not become the 51th State of America and leave us alone? Britain IS NOT Europe
Franz, Vienna, Austria, EU
I don't want Europe to become one nation. I think it's just too easy to say that "well the US probably thinks Europe should become just like them." I believe alot of Americans truly want all of the different European countries to retain their cultural identities.
Nicholas, Indianapolis, USA
Both Napoleon and Hitler attempted to create a United States of Europe, each on their own terms, and both failed. Individual national traditions are too powerful to permit the emergence of a European superstate. Let's keep to our successful friendly alliance of independent states.
Edmund Burke, Kingston upon Thames, England
Henry Kissinger enquired: who is the Mr Europe to deal with? There are of course many problems in uniting Europe but so long as Europe's leaders squabble over their personal power, national interests will prevail. So U S Presidents can look forward to making their tour of Europe for some time
peter fieldman, paris, france
Probably American statesmen remember very well that the North American states wwere dragged kicking and screaming into federalism; that the federal process was clandestine, not open and democratic, and that it took a Civil War to settle the issue. European integration is a doddle by comparison.
Malcolm, Kythira, Greece
As a Brit expat living in Athens I would like to see Obama win but the result of the final race in November is based on the number of state reps not votes cast. Remember what happened to Gore who won the popular vote? At present, on that count, Obama is behind McCain. Without Hillary he'll lose.
Dr David Green, Athens, Greece
Stick to your guns Ireland; if forced to vote again by Sarkozy, vote NO with an even bigger majority. Roll on the Czech presidency & the next UK election. As for Mr Ganley, if he organises a 'small donation' system like Obama did in the US I will gladly contribute just to get the vote I was promised
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
Sometimes, it seems that there's more than just the Channel between England and the Continent. Maybe it begins with breakfast. Geography is already a destiny. Islands seem adverse to Europe. People in the continent may be used to fluid borders and to movement within Europe. I don't know.
Massimo, Genova, Italy
Cameron will not put a commitment to hold an EU referendum in the next Conservative manifesto.
He recently had meetings with Merkel and Sarkozy, and what do you think they were for. If he gets elected he will do nothing because he is another gutless British politician. We need a Thatcher.
Jim Laflin, Bicvknoller, UK
Good article, wrong title. " Master Obama, we Brits will always remain your servants- EU is just our common enemy" would be a more adaptable one.
M Pallam, Athens, Greece
"That makes Mr Obama's visit to the Middle East, Afghanistan and Europe particularly important. He is being treated as virtually the President-elect..."
Remind me again how often Europe calls the result of an American election correctly?
An American election is an INTERNAL affair.
Dodgy Geezer, Gloucester, UK
europe will be a federation/unites states of etc etc
it designed to be and will slowly evolve to be -nothing will stop this dictatorial steam roller - n ot even the Irish which france etc wants to ignore AND indeed our own Govt. aka brown who ignoring both legal proceedings and Irish vote-
mike, gloucester, england
".. a preconception about Europe.Etc."
It's strange that you say this.
It seems obvious that the contrary would be the view because the USA 's founding arose by those who left Europe because of its petty and stifling nationalisms. Which attitudes (within Europe) persist today.
John Gregory Flinn, Béalencourt, France
Mr. Reeg-Mogg, the EU is without a doubt the biggest archievment in the history of international politics. It will not become the "US of Europe" but a supranational federation of the finest nations in the world. You and the other sniffy britons should finally surrender their "island-attitude".
Joerg H. , Stuttgart, Germany
Obama as CICERO? Oh, please. Even his supporters might laugh at that, if they knew who Cicero was.
Mary Ann Reardon Dilan
Mary Ann Reardon Dilan, Sarasota, Florida, USA
I just tried to make a lengthy point that I lack the true hostility for the EU you speak about.
I don't see why we can't work together to use our common stand to speak with a voice that is heard in China or India.
jackH, Hamburg, Germany
William,
you need to drag yourself out of the 20th century and into the 21st century. We need to read history and learn from it, not live in it.
akram, london,
As an American, I eagerly await the end of the "American Era". let someone else pay for world peace, what we have of it. America is exhausted by Bush and we need a rest, can't the EU nations step in and pick up the slack? Will Obama be the next president? Who knows, it's nuts over here.
James, Milwaukee, USA
With the EU and Europe being closer to the electoral possesses as practised in Zimbabwe, should any sane democrat wish upon the world another Dictatorship.
The idea that the greater majority of citizens of the USA have time to think or be concerned about their counterparts in Europe is strange. Its like suggesting that someone in London thinks about the peoples of Cornwall.
Ian Bryan, Reading, England
Roger Godement, English is the lingua franca of Europe now...Just because the French are behind the times in learning it doesn't make not so.
Mark Burke, Ashland, KY, USA
William, US presidents and candidates probably see through the euroskeptic noise; if that matured a bit, there could be a debate worth their study.
Hugh Riddle, Littlestone, UK
''The only two countries in the EU with real industrial/technological base and GDP growth are Germany and France''
Hardly. The UK has grown more quickly in every year since 2000 than both (a trend the IMF and OECD predict will continue).
Jake, Winchester, UK
Do you not see `Albert of Paris` To France the EU is the "begging bowl" supplying the needs of "Francais fort"
Peter Bolt, Redditch, UK
To think, as the Americans supposedly do, that the EU will eventually become a United States of Europe is unfortunately foolish : this would at the very least require a common language understood and spoken by everyone - at school, at work, in daily life, etc. Please visualize that !
Roger Godement, Paris,
I don't think there will be a United States of Europe. The general sentiment in Europe has turned too much against it. And I think that's all that matters. Knowledge or reason don't play a big role in this (and never have in 'nationalistic' sentiment). E.g. not many know what's in the Lisbon treaty.
harrie meeuwis, Hoogstraten, Belgie
So France hates America? Sarko is now chatting to Obama, has said he wants to build a proper relationship with the US. French TV features American soaps all day long, even bourbon sells well in the supermarkets! The French don't like Bush. Is all.
john problem, winchester, uk
This 'bastard' Eu;conceived(it would apear) and born from a union? (so called)of the two countries who have brought the most destruction and ruin to Europe via two europian and two world wars can only be 'unified' by bribary corruption and dictatorship.Being a 'bastard' it has no inheritence.
GBlezard, London, uk
William,
As a member of the House of Lords, how about having the EFTA (European Free Trade Association) weblink added to some of the 8 Lords EU Committees websites, contact links? Many people in the UK would prefer EFTA membership.
http://www.parliament.uk/
http://www.efta.int/
Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK
Obama should also be told that Blair gave in, with great reluctance, to demands for a referendum only because his position had been so weakened by his support for a US war to which millions of European were opposed, and that France reluctantly held a referendum only because Britain had agreed to.
Andrew, London,
Another Brit who seems to think that the USA considers the UK as some kind of special partner. Now, that is a good one.
John Merson, Saitama, Japan
The whole premise of this article is wrong. No one in the U.S. thinks European countries are going to become one big country. Where did that idea come from?
jen hutchin, phoenix, usa
"the McCain campaign, though refreshingly decent and rational, has attracted little attention"
Network bias doesn't help - notice the ABC/CBS/NBC anchors are all on Obama's trip tho' BO is not yet the official nominee. They barely even mentioned McCain's last trip.
Stan(expat), USA, USA
The only two countries in the EU with real industrial/technological base and GDP growth are Germany and France. The rest seem to be more of a footnote, serving mainly as consumers or low-cost labor markets for the two.
As such, the next Americans president shouldn't have too much to anguish about !
Nicholas, California, USA
Interesting, I wonder who is going to fund Mr Ganley to put these MEPs up for election? Could it be the right-wing US think tank that he went to 2 weeks ago in Washington? The next president will have to deal with the EU as those previous have done, though hopefully Britain will have left.
Paul, Carlow, Ireland
I disagree with those who predict a McCain victory.
He is perceived, correctly, as old, tired, out of touch with modern America, and above all NOT the maverick he was some years ago. He has sold his soul to BushCo for a pittance.
Moreover, he does not excite the voters.
Obama will win, easily.
Ralph, Memphis, USA
The problem with Europe is that countries have national identities which they do not wish to loose.
Then for all the good the EU created it created an equal amount of "bad", like the privatisation of the mail serivce. That lost thousands of jobs in Germany... (example) So much for a free market...
D.C.M., Oberhausen,
Pretentious uneducated rubbish. Cicero was a legal genius ,gifted orator and skilled politician whose wisdom is quoted in court rooms to this day. Obama is a modern American politician; he is empty, vacuous, untrustworthy and bland.As such he mirrors the American body politic and "culture".
Tom Sykes, homfirth, england
It seems curious for Mr Rees-Mogg to treat Obama as president-elect when he has a lead in the polls that is below margin for error.
John Swaine, Malta, Malta
Sir:
Fact is Senator Obama and Sen McCaqin are, for all practical purposes, tied in the polls with Obama losing momentum fast. American presidential campaigns don't really start in earnest until after Labor Day, first part of September. This one will prove to as close as the last two.
pKCASIMIR, Sarasota FL, USA
Obama will not be the next US president.
He has ridden too high a wave of adoration too early in the game. In middle America his trip to Europe is giving the impression of an election stop pandering to Europeans. This is going to help sink him. He should have only gone to the Middle East.
Marianne, midwest, USA
Obama the Magnificent will not be the next President. Given the choice between a Fascist and an Independant Democrat we will hold our noses for McCain. The big problem is the Senate. If ' dingy ' Harry Reid can round up 60 votes, it won't matter who is President. There will be recession.
Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA TX
The American view of Europe is not founded in reality in any sense. Most Americans simply cannot imagine anyone aspiring to any model except that f the US. And their fantasies about a "US of Europe" is just an extension of that. The US is the ultimate narcissistic country.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
1. Germany could become a reliable military ally if they were allowed to be. That's an interesting discussion for about 2025, I suspect.
2. Let's be clear, the American way isn't the only way. And the Americans still haven't learned that. They are getting there, though.
But Obama can opine!
Rhys Jaggar, Leeds, UK
The consensus that appears to be forming among opinion leaders that Obama has the election locked up is not widely shared on this side of the pond. But who can blame you for thinking so as it is the liberal media's fondest hope.
Banjo, Hot Springs Village, USA
Interesting but I suspect that West Ham supporting Obama already knows quite a bit about how the British people feel-after all he only need ask his cousins in Kent.
Michael Gilbert, London,
Obama is no Julius Caesar. Obama is Marcus Tullius Cicero.
Michael Ryan, Gloucester Pt., USA
Only Europeans think that the US believes the European countries will ban together into one homogeneous Union! Nothing could be further from the truth - Europeans are still way too nationalistic to allow their individual countries to lose their unique identities, no matter how hard Brussles tries.
Richard, Indy, USA
Mr Rees-Mogg,
Thank you for your well thought and written article. Mr Obama is wise enough I believe to know that prejudging that issue would be political suicide. It's a European issue to be decided by Europeans. Our own domestic issues are a big enough challenge for him. We all hope.
mark brady, colorado springs, co., USA
I wouldn't bet the farm on Obama's victory.
Mike, Seminole, Florida
Oh dear, the old empty-headed slogans, "European bureaucrats" (in power because the European Parliament was hobbled by, you guessed, the British), and delusions of grandeur "Britain is the only European power that can be relied on" (to hold out the begging bowl every generation). The USA wants NATO.
Albert, Paris,
William,
What ever gave you the idea that Mr. O would see Europe as the EU? That´s sheer nonsense. All Americans see Europe as a series of individual countries, economies, political entities and cultural ones as well. The common currency makes trade easier, but that´s about it.
RD, San Miguel de Allende, Mexico