William Rees-Mogg
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By-elections are exciting; they involve real decisions by real voters, so their significance is liable to be exaggerated. The 22.5 per cent swing from Labour to the Scottish National Party in Glasgow East is most unlikely to be repeated in the next general election. Usually, opinion polls have proved much better than by-elections at indicating long-term trends of public opinion.
Two national polls have been published since the Glasgow result was known; both were taken before the by-election. That may have had a shock impact over the past weekend. Labour's position may be even worse than in these opinion polls, but they are the best available guide so far.
On Saturday The Times and The Independent both published polls. Ipsos MORI in The Times gave figures of 47 per cent for the Conservatives, 27 per cent for Labour and 15 per cent for the Liberal Democrats. ComRes in The Independent gave 46 per cent for the Conservatives, 24 for Labour and 18 for the Liberal Democrats. These polls tend to confirm each other on the Conservative position, but differ on Labour and the Lib Dems.
When compared with the last general election, Ipsos MORI shows a swing of 11.5 per cent from Labour to the Conservatives, while ComRes shows a slightly bigger swing of 12.5 per cent. Ipsos MORI shows a swing of 11 per cent from Lib Dem to Conservative, while ComRes shows a smaller swing of 9 per cent.
They do not show any swing even nearly as large as that the SNP actually achieved in Glasgow East. Nevertheless, a series of by-elections, local elections and opinion polls all point in the same direction. These are the sort of results that predict a landslide. On present polls, the Conservatives can certainly expect a substantial overall majority at any early general election. Labour could lose as many as 200 seats.
For the Labour Party, this is a dangerously unstable situation. If it is thought that 200 Labour MPs could lose their seats, it follows that 300 or more must be afraid that they will lose their seats. The most sensible course might be for Labour to avoid panic and be prepared to go on until a general election in 2010.
Yet Labour MPs are already paranoid about their seats and those in the grip of paranoia do not make the best decisions. Unless there is a strong Labour recovery, of which there is as yet no evidence, Gordon Brown will be under continuous political pressure, just as John Major was before 1997. Such anxiety always reveals any splits that exist in a party.
In John Major's case, it revealed Conservative splits over Europe. In Gordon Brown's case, there is always the division in Labour between the old and the new, with the trade unions now reassessing their power. Old, trade union-dominated Labour would be even less electable than Labour is now.
There will inevitably be continued pressure for the leader himself to be changed. That pressure did not go away in the Conservative Party in John Major's period before the 1997 Labour landslide. Of course, economic conditions could change people's attitudes, but the Prime Minister has no reason to rely on an economic recovery in the next two years.
Early reports suggest that there are four front-runners for the Labour leadership. More might join later. Harriet Harman, the most convincing of the women candidates, has attracted similar support to that of Hillary Clinton in the US Democratic primaries. One can see why she is attractive to the same groups as Senator Clinton. Senator Clinton fought a tough and professional, but somewhat left-wing, campaign that impressed even those Republicans who would never dream of voting for her. Ms Harman fought an almost equally professional campaign for the Labour deputy leadership, with the added bonus that she won.
In America, hundreds of thousands of women, mostly of Senator Clinton's own age group, became passionately attached to her cause. When she lost, many felt personally betrayed. I am not sure that there is yet as strong a movement for Ms Harman, but it could easily develop. Women often feel a strong personal loyalty for a good and courageous woman candidate.
I do not think it matters that Ms Harman has a posh accent - Tony Benn has the poshest accent of modern politics and that has always been well liked by his supporters. I think that she would get strong support on the Left and in the trade unions as well as among old Labour voters and women. It is true that Ms Harman is disliked by some inside and outside the Labour Party. But strong candidates always have their enemies and their critics.
Labour has to change the climate of debate. It seems to me that a woman candidate would, from her gender, have a better chance of doing that than any of the men.
I have had considerable admiration for Jack Straw's work. I have always seen the necessity for good, professional politicians, who can get most of their judgments right over a career lasting for decades. The political hero of my youth, Rab Butler, was such a character. But these are the consolidators of political life. Mr Straw has been in high office every step of the way since 1997. If the voters want to clear out the old guard of Labour, why should they hesitate to get rid of him? As a senior minister, he is admirable, but he would not pretend to be a novelty.
David Miliband might be promoted as a British Obama where Harriet Harman is the British Hillary. Mr Miliband's trouble is that Senator Obama is beyond his level; the comparison could be damaging.
Finally, there is Alan Johnson. He seems a very nice guy; so did John Major. Nice guys cannot be expected to turn off the taps of Niagara.
Labour's choice should be made between sticking with Mr Brown until May 2010, which might be the wisest course, or switching to an early election under Harriet Harman - a high-risk strategy, but not unthinkable. It would make some sort of political sense.
William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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Miliband is, for all intent and purposes, a Blairite neoconservative, who still believes invading Iraq was moral, legal, and worth continuing. That alone should be enough to dispence all notion that he is either an intellectual, or politically to the left of Brown.
Roel, Leuven, Belgium
I think Miliband should stand. At least he would make Brown look good.
John Bell, Nottm,
The fact is that most of the co-called serious contenders are to mediocre to hold the office of Prime Minister. Since at least the 1980s its been downhill all the way in terms of the quality of our politicians. They are a rum lot.
Mark, Reading, UK
It is rumoured that Ms. Harman responded to the Glasgow defeat with the words "This is my Moment!". If there is any truth in this, then she is as deluded as she is mediocre.
Labour leader? Zero voter appeal and tarred with the brush of a failing govt. she has been part of since day 1. Go for it!
Richard, Bromley, UK
But we don't want another unelected leader, I think David Cameron should lobby a motion of no confidence in this govenment and press for a general election before any more damage is done to this country!
Dave Farmer, Broxbourne, England
Labour MP's need to remember they are voted in by the public. Their boss is the public. So they have to stand for what the voters want, not for what their PM wants. Rather than support stuff the PM wants, support stuff the voters want. Do that, and you dont need to worry about your seat.
Arthur, Newcastle,
It wouldn't matter who led New Labour - they've been an unmitigated catastrophe for England and the English people.
Of the shower with any prospect of succeeding the disastrous Brown, Harman (as an unreconstructed feminazi) is easily the worst of a very bad bunch.
Neil Saunders, Dover , England
A Harperson-led Labour party would provide a neat anthropological reference point. Harpersonism would spell the end of the feminist experiment, and galvanise, not just those men who feel totally sidelined by womens' 'rights' to have it all, but also those women who reject this ridiculous idea.
jonathan anthony, london,
Spot on Jan, scraping the bottom of the barrel , it's called
Dave Madley, Alicante, Spain
Any woman who contemplates voting for the Harperson for no reason except that she approximates to a woman is making a good argument for going back to the days when women did not have the vote.
D.L. Stephens, York, England
He may well be a "British Obama" but the fact still remains that him and his party have done a DREADFUL job with this country!
Anto, London, England
Labour could quite easily be beaten into third place with HH at the helm - so yes; an excellent idea.
If only because it would give them 20 years in opposition for the Tories to clear up their mess.
Nick, Farnham,
Mr Rees-Mogg your analysis of the decision in the Mosley trial, as to the future impact upon investigative journalism, was very flawed. Likewise your comparison of Ms Harman with Hillary Clinton is also flawed. A Clinton she is not, and another Thatcher she most certainly is not.
pw, South of England, uk
Harriet Harman for Prime Minister ? ?
Could not Labour's "men in gray suits" just bring Barbara Castle back from retirement?
W D Toulman, Walkington East Yorkshire, United Kingdom
Harman? What a wise idea. It is a good idea to start Tory succession planning immediately. Noone will ever match the serial incompetence of Brown, of course, but we can at least replace him with the incompetent unelectable, single-issue foghorn who is Harperson! Great, bring her in!
anthony, bingham, uk
RED/BLUE whichever way the wind blows Harriet Harmand!? No thank you.
Glynn, Kingston,
Mr Mogg, no. No more un-elected PM's.
Val, London, England
If not Gordie, then why not Harriet? As a 'Thatcher type' she would be the ideal person to lead NuLabor into a well deserved total obscurity! You knew where you stood with socialists, but this lot are 'neither flesh, fowl, nor good red-herring'!
S. Barraclough, Huddersfield, W. Yorkshire
Is this the same Hatty who was sacked by Tony Blair because she was not up to the job in the first Nu-Lab cabinet? She was then a backbencher but kept being put on committees by her mate Gordon.She used 'wimmins' issues to get back on board and has used them ever since.She is utterly useless.
Jan, London, England
Women need to stay home and make babies and clean up the house and leave the job of running the world to men!
Mark, Maidstone, England
So whether or not she has any qualifications,talent or any other skills she should replace Brown simply because she is a woman?.What utter nonsense,but nonsense that Harperson would support because that is her mantra.
David Knight, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
Harriet Harman? Modern satire? Please don't tell me you are serious? I'd rather vote for David Icke.
Labour should stick with Gordon until 2010; but with a damage limitation package in place. Then give him the boot and come back from the dead with David Milliband.
Stephen, St Albans, UK
your comment on the opinion polls not reflecting the by election result is flawed. the conservative as achieved a 9.5% swing in Glasgow East, which is in line with recent polls.
Also, national polls never represent the situation north of the border, so you cannot draw any conclusions on Scotland
Oliver, New Canaan , USA
Superb holiday reading WRM. Marshal the facts, set up an argument, present the alternative to Brown horrors and better the devil you know? Well either way at the moment the Project is derailed, we are just waiting for the train to rool down the bank into the swamp.
Danny, Manchester,
Approximately 50% of the population is male. Unemployment is rising, and we are in for a tough few years ahead. I just cannot see a single male of working age voting for her; it is literally turkeys voting for Xmas.
Neither has she a shred of charisma or intl' experience. Thus well scuppered WRM!
Tim, London,
I am not sure you realise quite how unpopular she is
Alex C, London,
is this not the same hariet harman that once said that handbags should have price controls placed on them? by comparison she makes big gordy look like a capitalist. and the milibands look like there only aim in life it to look and sound as much like tony blair as possible. Listen to Ed speak-scary
will, Grimsby, uk
Gordon Brown's one remaining successful rallying cry to Labour MPs is "it could have been worse, you could have had Harman as your leader".
She might attract a few extra female voters but she's likely to lose even more of the core Labour vote plus a fair few of the remaining moderate male vote.
Craig, London,
I fail to see how putting HH forward as a candidate for party and national leadership will convince those who already feel that "Politics is for the others" will bother to put their mark at the next election. This woman is the most bizarre and divisive creature in politics today, more so than Enoch
Jurgen, St Gilles Croix de Vie, France
From Wikipedia: In 1990 Harman co-authored a report entitled "The Family Way".
It criticised the family unit and mothers who stay at home. In particular it questioned whether men were an asset to families at all and whether "the presence of fathers in families is necessarily a means to social harmony and cohesion". Critics such as Erin Pizzey described such statements as a "staggering attack on men and their role in modern life". Really, not who Labour needs to lead them into an election!
Paul, London, UK
Interesting that you dismiss real elections in favour of paper exercises. Living in the same world as Jonah Brown?
Lee, Ilkley, UK
She probably is the best candidate ,thats Labours problem !
g.p.edlin, london, uk
Don't be silly, Mr. Rees-Mogg. Harriet Harman is already out of her depth as deputy PM. If she moved to No. 10, she'd sink without trace.
Pete, Hertford,
either rees mogg is joking or senile dementia is has
settled into his brain. Ms.Harman would always worry more
about herself and her political standing than the general
electorate.
paul campana, london, u.k.
How is it a 'good' choice to have someone like HH who only cares about half the population - the female half?
If she took power this country would be in a PC nightmare - if it isn't alreadY!!
PK, UK,
Harriet Harman has a posh accent? It sounds more like Estuary English to me, though it's not quite as 'Gor blimey wotcha' as it was during the 82 by-election.
Richard, Leek, England
No. No, no, no, no and no.
Frankly, I'd rather see the Chuckle Brothers in charge.
I'm not joking.
Paul, London,
Harriet Harman? Are you for real?
She is even worse than Brown and Blair!!
There's no posible way a woman could run this country... look at the last time it happened...
Get a grip!
Hillary was wrong for the party, a woman maybe, but Hillary, NO!!!!
Andrew Towell, Hartlepool, England
If Harperson becomes PM I'll leave the country - omly problem is I'm afraid of being trampled in the rush.
Sarah, London,
Harriet would do more Harman good...
Thoroughly modern Miliband is cursed with a Dorian Grey face. Eternally age fourteen.
Them that can - do: them that can't, teach. Them that can't do either become Jack Straw.
Surely, somewhere in the greater labour party there lurks an Obama?
Leigh Vernier, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Oh yes, please, please ditch Brown and pick Harman. Brilliant. I would weep actual tears of joy.
martin , london,
She's a great advert for the champagne Socialist isn't she? Comfortable, well-off, rolling in it, never done an honest day's work in her life.
She's also pyschologically flawed ---seems to suit Labour these days
Phil, Preston,
I can assure you that this woman wouldn't touch Harperson with a ten-metre cattle prod. Women of her ilk make me feel ashamed to be female.
Kathy, Lincoln,
Harman's slogan would be "we are, as whites and westerners, all guilty - except where, as women, we are victims."
She perfectly encapsulates the shrill, symbolism-obsessed, petty and oft-offended awfulness of Labour's ideology. Labur would be better off bringing back Michael Foot!
Nick Beard, Rotherham, UK
Mr Rees-Mogg must be from a different planet. In particular, Mr Straw is a long-time bag-carrier; Ms Harman has a most dubious record.
The Opposition will be pleased whatever happens, but they must now get down to really serious and tough policy formulation to justify a proper claim to government
Peter J Hnton-Green, Johannesburg, South Africa
Given that all rock bands eventually reform, footballers never retire and M*A*S*H is still showing on a TV somewhere in the world, what about a Blair comeback?
Mark Foscoe, Bedford, UK
Harriet Harman as a possible successor to Brown? New Labour might as well hand Cameron the keys to no.10 tomorrow.
Labour should stick with Gordon until 2010. Attempt to minimise the damage of their probable defeat. And then rebuild with David Milliband as leader for the 2015 election.
Victor, London, UK
Without wanting to sound ageist is Rees-Mogg still up to it? His predictions and analysis have long been lampooned in Private Eye as being hopeless (virtually everything he ever writes is wrong), a characteristic which is likely to worsen into his dotage.
Joseph Wade, London,
MISS Harman.........if you please.
Bring her on-potentially a complete disaster for NuLabour.
antony Graham, southport, England
Harriet Harman, the wicked witch of Westminster, caused Labour's loss of Glasgow East: by her pushing even easier abortion, she provoked anti-Labour statements from RC Scottish bishops in a constituency where over 20% of all voters are RC with a higher percent for Labour voters.
George, Bolton, England
This is irony?
Please tell me it is...?
Dean, Manea, Cambs
Maybe Labour needs a woman, but NOT the Countess Harperson!!!!
John Ledbury, Kings Lynn, England
And when the last man is driven out of the country?
Glenn, Brecon, Wales
Harridan Harperson is certainly guaranteed not to appeal to the electorate. So maybe they should.
Susannah, Telford, UK
I'm sure Harriet Harmon would be David Camerons favourite to lead the Labour party at the next election, she would definately be mine.
G Williams, Swansea,
HA HA HA HA HA
I got the joke........................I think..!!!!
james, Brighton, uk
Pandering and encouraging sexism by women? Shameful.
Keith S, Winnipeg, Canada
Personally I think Harperson would be the ideal candidate as she too would lead the party to oblivion. Nobody cares who's in "charge" the government is hated more than the leader.
Albert Hall, kettering,
Are we being serious or is it April 1st already. Harman for leader with all her donation sleaze and discriminatory polices like making men second rate citizens. I could go on but Stuart from Glasgow has said all that needs to be said about this arrogant 'black widow'.
Mike, Alicante, Spain
A Prime Minister with a history of Contempt of Court (Home Office v. Harman [1982] 2 W.L.R 338)? Thank you, but no thank you.
Alex Walker, Sheffield,
Harriet Harman! One of the few who can do more damage to Labour than Mr Brown.
Bring her on!
Richo, Perth, Australia
What a preposterous proposition in the headline!!
Someone, somewhere could argue that the Harperson is the best female candidate, but so what?
The media and political commentators have consistently said recently how poorly she has performed in Parliament - not to mention the sisterhood activities.
Padraig, Perth, Australia
Why would I as a voter want to even vote for someone who believes in positive discrimination and thinks that fathers are irrelevant in bringing up children? Mrs Harman is the most vindictive two faced hypocritical politician who is both a racist and a sexist. "High risk strategy?" suicide more like.
Stuart, Glasgow, United Kingdom
Harriet Harman?
Tell me you're kidding...
That is surely the politics of desperation...
But then I expect they are!
Trev B, Brightlingsea Essex,
Harman. Really? I was thinking maybe Maggie.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
Blimey WRM, I can only think this article is tongue in cheek. The epitomy of the nanny-state, Old Harperson herself? You're 'aving a larf. I even checked the date at the bottom of the screen. I used to campaign on the doorstep for John Smith and he'll be spinning now at the mess this lot have made.
Andrew, London,