William Rees-Mogg
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Who has heard of Freiherr von Musulin, apart from a few historians of Austria-Hungary and students of the diplomatic causes of the First World War? In 1925, he published his memoirs, which were reviewed in The Times Literary Supplement by the eminent historian, Lewis Namier. Musulin called his memoirs Das Haus am Ballplatz, which was the name of the Austrian Foreign Office.
Baron Musulin is not an outstanding figure in the history of European diplomacy; he was infinitely far from being a Metternich or a Talleyrand, yet perhaps he reshaped European history to a greater degree than either of them. From 1910 to 1916 he held the comparatively unimportant post of Chief of the Department for Church Affairs. In the summer of 1913, he took his holiday in Croatia, the country of his birth; on his return to Vienna he wrote a report on the Serbian problem, a subject on which he had not previously been regarded as an expert.
At some time in July 1914 he was asked to draft a diplomatic ultimatum to Serbia: “Wherein, on the basis of Serbia's moral responsibility for the events of June 28 [the murder of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand] certain demands would be addressed to her for the suppression in future of Great-Serb propaganda.” He believed himself to have a reputation for “abilities for office work and stylistic skill”. He drafted the note on the assumption that the Serbians would accept it.
He was surprised when the note was rejected. He comments that: “It is altogether difficult to foresee the effect which any one political action may produce abroad.” Considering that the effect of his miscalculation was the First World War, 20 million dead, and all that has followed, that seemed an understatement.
Since 1914, the major powers have been concerned to avoid another Sarajevo moment, in which the world tumbled into war by accident. However, the war was not altogether an accident or a miscalculation. The more significant memoirs of Field Marshal Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf, the Chief of the Austrian General Staff, a grander and more aggressive figure than von Musulin, provide his real reasons for wanting a war. “Two principles were in sharp conflict: the maintenance of Austria as a conglomerate of various nationalities and the rise of independent national states claiming their ethnic territories from Austria-Hungary... For this reason, and not with a view to expiating the murder [of Franz Ferdinand], Austria-Hungary had to go to war against Serbia.”
No two historic events are identical, but there are disquieting resemblances between the Serbian crisis as it stood in July 1914 and the Georgian crisis as it stands in August 2008. There is the Russian factor that is central to both crises; there are conflicting nationalisms; there is the widespread feeling of anxiety. In 1914, Austria-Hungary was afraid of being let down by Germany, Germany was afraid of the growing strength of Russia, Russia was afraid of being let down by France, France was afraid of being let down by Britain, and Britain was alarmed by the growth of the German Navy. Every major power felt threatened. In the event, Serbia's rejection of the Austrian note pulled all of them into a war that few had wanted. The weakest power took the biggest decision.
The situation now is similar in many respects, but not in all. The big difference is that the Russian Federation is nearly 20 years beyond the time of Soivet Union's collapse. The Warsaw Pact had long since broken up, and most of the Warsaw Pact countries have joined the EU and Nato, without Russia being in a position to object. However, there are a number of newly independent countries, including Georgia, which were not members of the Warsaw Pact but part of the 19th and 20th- century Russian empire. This “near abroad” is seen by Russia as being inside Russia's natural sphere of influence.
The new Russia of Vladimir Putin is nationalist in the old tsarist fashion, and is determined to protect Russian interests. In the 1990s, the Yeltsin years, Russia could not assert these traditional Russian positions, because it was too weak. They are being reasserted now, and this reassertion is backed by Russia's growing importance as a provider of oil and gas.
In 1914 Europe had six major powers, Germany, France, Britain, Austria-Hungary, Italy and Russia, all of which had imperial possessions. Most of these countries were coalitions of different nations, with domestic problems of nationalism. Britain, for instance, had the Irish problem.
In 2008, there are six major groupings in the world, the US, China, the EU, India, Russia and Japan. Islam is another matter. These groupings are all, to some degree, concerned about economic or political weaknesses in their own positions.
Some of these groups are rising powers, but others are in relative decline. Russia probably lacks the economic or population base to maintain Putinism in world competition. The US may well have another generation as the leading world power, but its lead is narrowing. Europe has not resolved the cultural differences of its membership. China and India are emerging superpowers. But these groupings are almost as uncertain as the European powers were in 1914, and the scarcity of future energy supplies makes them feel insecure.
In these circumstances, it was rash of the Government of Georgia to try to regain control of South Ossetia by force. How did it imagine that Russia would respond? Georgia is a candidate to join Nato, but the European members of Nato, particularly Germany, may feel that Georgia's Government is too impetuous to be given the Nato guarantee. In a world of uncertainty, the major powers cannot risk minor wars in case they become big ones.
William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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This was a foolish move by Georgia and one that should have been forestalled by the U.S. and NATO. But the genie is out of the bottle and what is do be done? It was only a matter of time before Russia used some pretext to exert its will; better Georgia than Poland again.
Richard L. Wade, Tucson, USA
The disaster in Georgia was almost entirely the fault of the Georgian president, who saw his way to the admission of his country to NATO as being conditional upon successful repression of the South Ossetians and the Abkhazians.
Georgia should not attempt to become a member of NATO.
James Canning, Seattle, USA
The Sudetenland anology's more true. Imagine if France began issuing passports to the French-speaking areas of Belgium, then armed their 'separatists' and told them they'd back them if they fired on Belgian troops. Would anyone call a Belgian response a provocation?
Scott Forbus, Dallas, TX, USA
The Georgian president took a step too far. Russia shelling a seaside town on the Black Sea and killing civilians is hardly the actions of a kindly neighbour is it. The Russian government is doing what it has always done for centuries, it likes killing its own people. Its a bad habit and can't stop
Phil de Buquet, Newport,
Without history as part of European power plays-Georgia sought to force the Wests hand vs. Russia.
Newly empowered was eager to prove its might, and foolish proud Georgia thought trickery a match for power.
Georgia is to blame 100%, cause Russian reaction was predictable, it was also 100% avoidable
Johnny Morales, harker heights, texas, usa
This is a defining moment for the EU.
If Brussels can fix this, the European Union "experiment" moves forward.
If they do nothing the EU fades into irrelevance.
My bet is on them doing nothing...
The US should stay out and let them have at it.
GFR, Berkeley, California
More like Sudetenland than Sarajevo - naked pinching of sovereign territory which if not answered will be followed by the nexet bit and the next bit as old Russia extends its influence. Remember Georgia was the birth place of Stalin.
Richard, Newton Abbot,
On present trends, it looks as though Georgia will be 'voluntarily' seeking to join Russia, not NATO membership. Less Sarejevo, more Munich. As for the EU, what does it 'represent'? Surely not its own 'group'? Schroeder works for Gazprom, for goodness sake!
Andrew Baker, Oxford, UK
Georgia is at the doorstep of Europe and NATO, Peter from Melbourne, Australia. Europe and the US do need to worry about how far this conflict will go.
Australia has the benefit of being too far away and being too politically insignificant to worry about these "local and ethnic conflicts".
Krishan, Sydney, Australia
I fail to see how this helps Russia either. Every country around the world will now look at Russia as a problem to finesse, rather than a legitimate power. Amidst all the obfuscation one thing is clear: Russia is behaving like a rogue state, and in this sense it is quite alone.
Michael, Dallas, USA
Two options are apparent: War between the West and the aparatchiks who wish to rebuild the old soviet empire. Another that follows the Czech-Slovak model. The question is whether dreams of empire will yield. Viewed from inside another war zone I rather suspect not.
Warren Murphy, Goshen IN, USA
Britain, for instance, had the Irish problem
That is the wrong way round.
Morton, Praha, Czech Rep.
I hope that the government of Georgia and the general who ordered the destruction of the city of Schkinvali will be held responsible for their acts and without delay be produced the International Criminal Court to answer to charges of war crimes.
Georgia is certainly in need of regime change.
Gamini, Reading, England
Mike, MK
Oh, so you heard it from BBC or CNN? How about hearing it from thousands of Osetins fleeing georgian bombing? Get real and learn that the facts are not always what is shown on CNN and BBC.
Oleg, St. Pete, Russia
Are we heading for a phoney war, or even a new Iron Curtain? Coincidentally, is GB policy involvement in the EU at odds with any honourable,worthwhile response?
Fools think of continued peace when those in power talk energy and influence? This is it, our shame is complete, get used to it!
Nigel, Rhyl, GB
It is difficult for Russia to lose from the current conflict. At the worst, Georgia will lose the possibility of NATO membership. At best, Russia gains control of the Baku-Tiblisi pipeline, thus strengthening its position vis a vis Western European energy supplies.
Will, London, UK
All I can think of is when Hitler tried to get the Nazi German Sudetens to cause havoc in the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia. Idea being Czechoslovakia would respond severely, and Hitler could say he needed to protect the Germans living there, by taking that part of the country. It worked for him.
George, Bristol, UK
I agree with your comparison of Sarajevo with Georgia. I think it was very foolish of Georgia to start a war with Russia, altogether since Putin has come on the scene, Russia has started to get back to the cold war period and this war doesn't help. It seems mankind never learns.
Renny, Ramat Hasharon, Israel
Dmitry I have heard that most of the casualties have actually arisen from botched artillery and bombing runs....
But blame the West you have done for most of the last century why not stop now.......
Mike, MK,
it is quite insane for the Georgian President to reintegrate breakaway province by forces. so now on thanks to the Georgian president Georgia looses these provinces forever. such his stupid actions show obviously to all states of the ex-USSR the west helps never even if you sleep at in american bed.
rinat, almaty, kazakhstan
If politicians in EU don't start to use their heads (especially Schroeder and similar Russian puppets), we ought all to buy Russian dictionaries and start learning Russian. US is too preocupied with Israel and muslim nations to defend Europe from certain Russian occupation of the whole continent.
Marko, Maribor,
Hey Michael in Pilsen, you need to learn a little history if you think the US started that precedent; it was used by both Hitler and Stalin to start wars quite some time ago. But hey, if you can pin it on the US, you don't have to think about it anymore, right?
Rob, NY, USA
Really you wished to win Russian army? You badly learned history probably. That you have written all in clause it is lie! The American advisers need to prepare for allies is better.
Zodiak, Samara, Russia
Georgia should have thought before starting a genocide with 2 000 civilians slaughtered, more than 90% of whom are Russian citizens.
Georgia should have thought before ordering Georgian Peacekeepers to shoot Russian Peacekeepers.
Georgia shouldhave thought before starting a GENOCIDE.
Dmitriy Syuckarev, Khabarovsk, Russian Federation
US and NATO should be careful and not get sucked into a global conflict because of the stupid actions of others in local and ethnic conflicts which are incomprehensible to outsiders.
Peter, Melbourne, Australia
it's a shame america has left a precedent of the 'just war'... stabilising regions, protecting minorities etc., so obviously used for geopolitical ends. all the powers will be at it
Michael, Pilsen,
Georgia should have thought of 1956 when it decided to invade South Ossetia - when, after decades of "Rolling Back the Iron Curtain" foreign policy, courtesy of John Foster Dulles, the West stood still as Russia crushed the Hungarian rebellion. A similar result awaits this adventure.
John Connor, Millburn, N. J., U.S.A.
the nub's in Bill's last paragraph. The Georgian's calculated on NATO help to rid itself of separatists. A nod and wink given at the last NATO summit has been taken literally by them. Forget 1914. Then everyone was iching for a war: now, see how they run away and let Georgia crash and burn.
John Walter, bonn, germany