William Rees-Mogg
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I feel sure that a debate is going on between the hawks and doves in the Kremlin. I am confident of that because such debates always do exist. There must be equally patriotic Russians, in senior official positions, who see the Georgian campaign as part of Vladimir Putin's restoration of Russian self-respect or as dangerous adventurism. In times of crisis, decision-makers inevitably divide into hawks, regarded by critics as “reckless warmongers”, and doves, regarded as “cowardly appeasers”.
Such divisions exist in the EU and in the US. In Russia, there is no doubt that the hawks are in the ascendant. The leading hawk is Mr Putin, the Prime Minister. One should remember that all politics is ultimately domestic. Mr Putin wants to impress Russia's neighbours with its power and armed might. But he also wants to impress the electorate.
The hawkish leaders refuse to accept Russia's humiliation at the time of the break-up of the Soviet Union. Their policy is popular with Russian public opinion. This naturally strikes fear into former Soviet countries, such as Ukraine or Georgia. No one now will lightly challenge Russian power; the Russian people like that.
We do not know who the doves in the Kremlin may be, although President Medvedev uses more moderate language than Mr Putin.
So far, the hawks have been winning the argument. The Russian people feel that they have been treated with disrespect for too long. Their military action in Georgia has been a rapid and decisive victory. The Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, never popular in Russia, has been taught a sharp lesson in the realities of military power.
Nevertheless, the doves in the Kremlin also have strong arguments. Russia is a major nuclear power, comparable with the US. Russia may be the only nuclear power with the capacity to obliterate the US. Yet this would lead to the total destruction of Russia itself. That does, however, mean that Russia understands the reality of the situation.
The Russians have a sophisticated knowledge of their own vulnerability to nuclear attack. Like the Americans, they know that they cannot afford to go to war with the other nuclear superpower. This was established over 40 years of the Cold War. A certain level of nuclear capacity actually limits a major power's freedom of action.
In the time of Russia's greatest strength in the mid-20th century, between victory in Europe in 1945 and the death of Stalin in 1953, Russia still had a powerful Marxist-Leninist ideology that attracted support around the world and even conquered China.
Stalin believed Marxism-Leninism to be a scientific explanation of history that was bound to prevail against “capitalist imperialism”. He devoted substantial resources to promoting international revolution. Even his more moderate successor, Nikita Khrushchev, warned the West that “we will bury you”.
Russia is no longer a Marxist-Leninist society, although there is some popular nostalgia for the old days. Socialist idealists of the Third World no longer look to Russia as a model society, or even an attractive one. Marxism-Leninism had a strong appeal to political militants. That no longer exists. For better or worse, Russia is now just another capitalist country, and not a particularly efficient one.
The price that Russia is paying for the invasion of Georgia is increased isolation. The major regional powers of the modern world are the US, China, the EU, Russia, India and Japan. Since the Georgian invasion, Russia has had strained relations with the US and Europe, and no major friends. Russia is a large Asian power, stretching to the Pacific Ocean, but the three most important Asian powers, China, India and Japan, do not have close or trusting relations with it.
Of the six world powers, or groups of powers, Russia is seen as the least reliable, the least friendly. President Franklin Roosevelt felt that the US in the 1930s had become alienated from the South American countries; to correct that, he established the “good neighbour policy”. Russia is increasingly isolated from its “near abroad”. To Georgians, Ukrainians or citizens of the Baltic states, Mr Putin's Russia appears to be following a “bad neighbour policy”. For the Russian voter, Putinism may appear to be reasserting Russia's position in the world; to its neighbours, Russia is now an ugly threat.
The West, particularly the US and Europe, has tried to prevent Russia's isolation by inviting the Russians to come into the tent. This policy was not consistently pursued; there are still Western anxieties from the Cold War, just as there are similar Russian anxieties. But the general policy was clear and was symbolised by inviting Russia to join G8 meetings.
Russia has essential interests in common with the West. Global trade, a stable European market for oil and gas, resistance to Islamic terrorism, avoidance of military conflict, investment in modernisation. It was hoped that Russia and the West could build on these interests to cement good relations and strengthen the global economy.
The first European reactions to the invasion of Georgia showed that Europe hoped to protect this co-operative policy. Had Russia limited the Georgian operation to the protection of South Ossetian refugees, but kept troops out of Georgia proper, a co-operative policy might have been maintained. Instead, there has been broad Russian aggression against Georgian territory.
The delay in the ceasefire and the extension of the invasion far beyond the boundary of South Ossetia has created a very different climate, made worse by threats to target nuclear weapons against Poland and, it appears, Ukraine as well.
In a world of global trade, Russia cannot afford to be isolated. No doubt the Kremlin hawks are riding high now. Yet as Sir Robert Walpole said of a mid 18th-century war: “They now ring the bells, but they will soon wring their hands.”
William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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Freedom of Russia People? For example every body in Russia can say that war in Checna was biggest mistake of our politics because they have invest both sided in this war in begin. But in years there was big well trained terrorist organization. Every day I read news in Georgia, BBC, Times, CNN...
Dmitriy, Novosibirsk, SIberia :), Russian Federation
Yuri, London:
The West gains nothing by isolating Russia. It hurts the west on many levels. That is the cost of doing the right thing sometimes. Russia is the bad actor here, trying to make a point with this war. Fine, point made, but here are the consequences. Doing the right thing costs much.
chris, phoenix, USA
Bob, Voorburg, your knowledge of geography is fantastic, except for one thing: Crimea is a peninsula. Is your knowledge of history as good? Have you seen many Russians in your life?
Why refraining all these stupid stereotypes about us, better come to Russia and talk to the people. I invite you!
Boris, Moscow, Russia
We're already seeing major redemptions from Russia funds, and many institutions dumping Russian assets as fast as they can. It's like 1998 all over. More importantly, it will become harder now for Russian firms to raise money outside the country, which is going to hurt the local economy.
Stuart, Brighton, UK
Russia has been planning this for a long time, atleast for the last 2 years. I am surprised to see the West, specially the US has been caught napping again. They need to be isolated and cut off from the Global Capital Markets.
Amit, Boston, US
And then it all was just a rehearsel for capturing the Crimea Island from the Ukrain.
Bob, Voorburg, Netherlands
ian cheese, london, uk
Really? :) Thanks to Turkey for blocking the gates in Black Sea from US Navy. What US Navy forgot here?
Sergei, Moscow, Russia
It is scary to see "westerners" naively believing that their media is free/unbiased (see YouTube: "Fox News: 12 Year Old Girl Tells the Truth about Georgia"). It is even more unpleasant to see threats to isolate Russia, like as if it was not done already. Who benefits? What do you gain?
Yuri, London, Canada
Michael from Toronto is wrong about Russia developing a self-sustaining internal market because their population is too small and shrinking.
Martin, Cambridge, UK
When the Oligarchs are content to ride around in Hondas instead of Range Rovers, Mercs & BMWs and their WAGs are content to wear Hong Kong Couture instead of Gucci, Armani & D&G then maybe the Western markets will become obsolete.
Wherever else the petrodollars are going it ain't on armaments
Boris, Leeds, UK
The final nail in the coffin will be when Russia and China's ever growing middle class make western markets obsolete. The west's leverage is waning while Russia's and China's are growing. Asia will monopolize the resources and contain the new super economies.
Michael, Toronto, Canada
Sad but as long as Russia has oil and gas, it can get what it wants. I think western Europea countries need Russian markets as well. It's not a 1 way street. Also, Russia can get basic manufactured goods from China.
che, new york, usa
G. Gibson, Sydney, Australia What do you think should do your government if Indonesian troops invaded in Timor to shot down your peacekeepers there and organize mass killing Timorians?
Alexey, Moscow,
I agree with the general thrust of this article Russia may have extensive gas and oil but it lacks in so many areas such as high technology and will revert again to a 2nd class nation if it keeps scaring the World. There are many other alternative energy suppliers! let us ALL start a new beginning
greg lefarge, Rennes, France
In the long view, the invasion of Georgia should be seen as a Russian surrender. Messing around in the Caucuses is small town stuff that indicates an inward-looking Russia. A Russia that had any self-confidence would be trying to create a world-class economy, not dependent on oil sales.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
A Pyrrhic victory is at hand. However, Mr RM you forgot to mention the birdkeepers between the doves & the hawks.The picture of the OILigarchs is not so black and white in the year 2008. There is alot more shades of grey.When the rulers police the empire, history has shown its a sign of their demise
Tomaras, Ioannina, GREECE
I definitely agree with this article; however, I do think oil has a much larger role to play. After all BTC pipeline oil money is not finding its way into Russian coffers. I don't think this conflict will result in anything major however, just people realizing that the world is changing, again...
Jon, St Paul, MN, US
Bad Neighbour? The US & Britain cannot afford to be aggressors either!
ian cheese, london, uk
Thank you, Thomas from UK for bringing it in. I want to ask if Mr. Saakashvili informed NATO or US about his intention to invade S. Ossetia? He knew Russia will respond with all power. Remember how he complained about Russian jets or shot down surveillance drone on April 21 over S. Ossetia.
Dmitriy, Philadelphia, US
I agree with Mr.Mehta. There is nothing special about Western cash; even if Western countries stopped investing, Asian and Middle Eastern nations would be happy to step in.Little has actually changed militarily or strategically,just the media & politicians are talking it up. Russia had nukes before!
Nicholas, Ipswich, UK
To Mr.Graham from New Zealand. You seem to be too far away from Russia both in space and in time. Your message sounds as if you wrote it 30 years ago and it's only now that it eventually arrived. The answer to your question is YES, no fear to be repressed, and Siberia is a beautiful land by the way.
Boris, Moscow, Russia
The moment the 'wall' fell, the 'Communist' leaders of the Soviet Republics became 'Democratic'!! Most of them were either KGB (Aliev of Azerbaijan) or closely tied to it. These same people/families, are now in power. I have worked and lived in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Russia- no mental changes!
Kyle, Inverness, Scotland
"if such a freedom of speech exists in Russia-or do they still worry about being visited by the KGB and a one way trip to Siberia. Plenty of Americans criticise Bush-any Russians dare to say anything against Putin?"
EXIST! Don't worry. Siberia (are u kidin)? DARE! But he's like Condi Rice for us.
Evgeniy Denisov, Samara, Russia
Europe should learn to be a good neighbour and keep its noses out of Russian affairs or they might find themselves with inflated gas prices and collapsed economies.
keith bentham, wigan, uk
Dmitry of Ryazan
If it is wrong for the Georgians to kill the Ossetians why is it ok for the Russian army to kill the women and children of Chechnya because they want independence from Russia? Russia respects the human rights of South Ossetians (rightly)but disdains the human rights of Chechnya.
Gerry, Moscow, Russia
I like this author stance. Hypocracy in clear. Mr. Rees-Moggy conviniently forgets a thousand Russian civilian citizens killed in S.Ossetia by Georgian troops in 8 hours slaughter before Russian "invasion of Georgia" even began.
Alexey, Moscow, Russia
Ladies And Gentlemen Of Russia And Countries We Are The People,We Surely Can See Better Light,Think About It,It Was Not Mikheil Saakashvili,But The Americans Again By Being There Provoking Russia Like They Do Everywhere
Like Poland And Other Places Lets Not Insult Each Other,
Bush Does That.
Thomas, Surbiton, uk
Oh, dear? There were 350,000 ethnic russians in Georgia in 1989, there are few than 50,000 in 2002. The West said no word about this ethnic cleansing. Sorry, I do not trust you any more, I hope very much that Russia woke up now and will spend more on nuclear arms.
Andrey, Moscow,
There are very few ethnic Russians in South Ossetia. Instead, Russia has granted Russian citizenship to large numbers of Ossetians. This is not protection of Russians, but simple imperialism. Does Russia support inedpenence for North Ossetia, too?
Frank Upton, Solihull,
Russians love Putin because it did not become the footman of the USA as Saakashvili.The pro-American policy, mismatches our traditions and character of russians.At us other cultural values and if they the distinct from USA, does not mean at all, that it is bad.We simply wish to go another by.
Ksenia, Moscow, Russia
I feel very sorry for the people of Georgia and Ukraine who have such short-sighted governments. I am half ukranian and I know for sure that most Ukranians don't hate us? I can also tell you that we have always respected Georgian people and there is no hatred between us. But Europe doesn't care.
tatiana, moscow, russia
Spot on. It's difficult to know exactly what Russia is trying to achieve. If they are trying to pose as a superpower, they'll need money to sustain this and that requires trading partners who trust you. The USSR fell because it was insular and spent the money it had on weapons. Sound familiar?
susie, lincoln,
Spot on. It's difficult to know exactly what Russia is trying to achieve. To pose as a superpower, they'll need money and that requires trading partners who trust you. The USSR fell because it was insular and spent the money it had on weapons. Sound familiar?
susie, lincoln,
fred: "These responses make it clear that the brain washing of the population that exisited under communism still exists today under Putinism."
Fred, the point is that brain-washing is being done effectively by both sides. Have no doubts about this. Democracy or not, there is no free media anywhere
Ildar, Nizhnekamsk, Russia
The dollar diplomacy of US will not work any more as balance if power in monopoly in trade is shifting.
ravi, sharjah, UAE
Countries don't have "friends", only interests - and they can change with the seasons. Hasn't the U.S. just made "friends" with Libya?
Ken Leyland, Liverpool, U.K.
America proclaims its support for these new democratic states but it really has only one thing on its mind. It sees them as somewhere else for it to base even more misiles in the future.
S Strachan, Glasgow, UK
to the western contributors,if you think you are not brainwashed,that your media is free and unbiased,please look at who owns the media,what is their agenda?
it is sad that people on all sides are so quick to defend the aggression of their leaders
oswald mcguffie, leeds, uk
it is hugely naive for mr rees-mogg to say that russia needs to be best friends with its trading partners.
algernon, kiev, ukraine
Now Russians thinks about position in the world. Most of Russians thinks that West don't want integrate Russia just want to humble. As a result Russia have to choose independent revanchism politics. And Russians will support it.
West is guilty in it. Secure is the most important thing for Russia
Pavel S.Tsarevskiy, Samara, Russia
In my opinion Russia acted not very differently from the US when they bombed Belgrade, Tbilisi was spared at that.
I feel sorry for the Georgian people, yet I do not understand how Georgian president dare affront its mighty neighbour, calling Mr.Putin "Liliputin".
A wake up call for America too.
Yurii, Burgas, Bulgaria
the russians are an un democratic repressive society who do not respect the rule of law. To give that country a veto over democratic states will be the end of the west. The russian strength is its vast resources but without our help they could not exploit them Targeted sanctions against
paul gilboy, whitley bay, england
The russian army is an army of conscripts with out dated equipment. That should reassure the doubters.
marginalise them and with the sanctions.
We can get the russian bear dancing to a differnt tune.
paul gilboy, whitley bay, england
To M G Graham, Auckland,
Russia is not Soveit U. any more. Many people speak English, and of course nobody controls us. I'm writing it from my work (I'm afraid of only my employer...:)And - I can't say the same thing of you - you accuse us of propaganda - but how do u know?You speak R.?
Alya, Novosibirsk, Russia
So far the lack of unified response from the West signals to Russia that it can afford anything and its imperialistic attitude is right. Only through consequences people learn of their mistakes. The greatest danger to the world lies in the damage impunity does to people's mentality.
Elena, London,
ella, Frankfurt, Germany
You're quite right! Modern Russians have the critical mind and ability for analysis. Therefore the brain-washing is too complicated for this generation unlike Americans and the russian USSA generation. Just compare-presidents election in US and Rus. 1 year show in US. Why?
Sergei, Moscow, Russia
It might be prudent to avoid buying shares in companies
heavily investing in Russia. They would have no hesitation in nationalizing everything if the mood came upon them and clearly there would be no come back if they did. I can undertand Russia wants the pipeline but this was an own goal.
Henry, London, UK
"when America bombed Serbia - it bombed Russia"
Vladimir, Moscow, Russia
Shows the kind of mentality we're dealing with - Tito made sure that part of the planet was NOT part of Russia, what a shame he wasn't able to find a suitable successor!
Alex, London,
Vladimir Putinism = Condi Ricism. Medvedev = Bush. There is no difference. As u see I dare! Every Russian dare!
Siberia? Are u kidding?
Who need USSR Empire back? Russians don't need.
We're speaking freely. And who is barbarians here?
Ask Russians instead of discussing them without them.
Zhenia, Samara, Russia
Tired of discussion about us without us. Thank you Ella. Thank Times for publishing some of my comments. I hope that people should listen to people, not to our politicians. It's pity that some people still think that we're brain-washed, can't critisise our politicians and not free to speak.
Evgeniy Denisov, Samara, Russia
In response to Evgeniy of Samara's question "are you really read seriously such articles from day to day?": The answer is 'yes' - the joys of having world-class media, free of state interference. For all your wealth, I pity the average Russian living under an increasingly totalitarian kleptocracy.
Karl, Manchester, UK
*When dealing with ideologies like Communism we need to turn to the Holy Bible. In Ephesians chapter 6:12 we see a huge spirit war and many different types of powers. Those powers controlled the birth of Communism and havent yet let go of it so we could see a revival of the old Red star in the USSR.
G.Gibson, Sydney, Australia
To Fred: Do you think it s possible to brain-wash people who understand another languages and have an access to any information in english, german etc...In fact, it is western mass media who makes brain-washing - CNN and BBC mostly!Check YouTube - Ossetian girl on Fox TV !
ella, Frankfurt, Germany
Russia's behaviour in all spheres from commerce to their military action can only lead to many counties increasing their defense budgets and that will include China, their biggest long term threat. They should be making the EU an ally not an enemy. They will need friends sooner rather than later.
Roger Corfield, Arusha, Tanzania
The main item of world trade for Russia is their oil and gas. In a world short of energy where oil production has not risen since 2005 will Russia have any difficulty selling its oil and gas even if the EU and US refuse to buy it?
Derek Emery, Bedworth, UK
Even though I'm not a fan of Putin, I'm with him on this. None of us, including Putin wanted this conflict. But the conflict was engineered in such a way that Russia looses either way. Either we just let Saakashvili overrun Tskhinvali, or surpressed the invasion, politically we are defeated any way.
Alexey, St-Petersburg, Russia
Fascist totalitarian states always invade their neighbours; we saw that during the last century with Germany and Iraq. Similiarly, they love using the excuse that they are only protecting their citizens, as Germany did with the Sudetenland Germans. 21st Century Russia is the new Nazi menace.
Mark Green, London, UK
Russia is in trouble and it isn't the West. They have the lowest male life expectancy in the developed world and have population dropping by 700 thousand a year. No one knows why there are fertility problems and birth defects. They have 2% world GDP. They need help but behave like gangsters,pity.
Colin, Leeds, UK
The key is that Putin is a KGB man who dreams of having the Soviet empire back again.
This is a wake up call to the West, for a start we should stop our reliance on Russian oil and gas as he wil use it to blackmail us if he can.
Russia is not a reliable partner.
Bryan, Walton on Thames, UK
"any Russians dare to say anything against Putin?"
Are you kidding? Russians know their place and would never do anything but show respect to their godfather. Murder, poisoning and Siberia are not just for journalists, heads of state or politically inclined billionaires.
Frank, Canada,
Any article about this subject gets the same responses from people in Russia. These responses make it clear that the brain washing of the population that exisited under communism still exists today under Putinism.
fred, Andover, UK
Why does Putin need to impress the electorate? No matter what they do, or what job he is given, he retains power as Regent.
It may not be a Marxist-Leninist society anymore but it is certainly not a liberal democratic one which upholds the rights and freedoms of the individual.
Mick, Liverpool, UK
It may not be as much about trade as it is about the old Red thing living quietly on.
When the wall went down Communism was thought to have disappeared but what if it just put itself out to the backroom, to work on towards its original goals?
Seduced the world, built its armies up and then...
G.Gibson, Sydney, Australia
"all politics is ultimately domestic"- you should certainly remind of it to your own politicians. If you want to remodel the world according to your pattern - be good to the rest and stop scolding Russia as people here have more will, intelligence and spirit than you could have assumed.
Inna, St.Petersburg, Russia
The EU must gain energy independance from Russia. Because Russia WILL use energy to blackmail the EU. Getting Georgia and the Ukraine into NATO will help curtail Russia to some extent, but reducing the dependance on Russian oil and gas will go a long way to reducing the threat.
Sandra , santa barbara ca., USA
Kremlin hawks? Don't be ridiculous, Mr. William. The hawks would never get even 1% popularity in this country as Russians know too well by their own experience what war is.
Why not a word about Bush and Saakashvili they are innocent chicken, are they not? Oh, and very reliable partners too...
Boris, Moscow, Russia
I'm sure that Russia is saying 'look at me I'm here!' And its about time that America and the EU stopped their huffing and puffing and realised that they have overstepped the mark on a number of recent occasions (Iraq, kosovo) and they have set a bad example to the rest of the world.
David Clark, Sofia, Bulgaria
Most in the West have spent the last 8 years watching the disastrous Bush presidency and paid no attention to the KGB takeover of Russia. They're just waking up now, bewildered. Bush & Russia "expert" Rice will leave soon, but Putin will stay on, until he is hung upside down Mussolini style.
Frank, Canada,
People (not US), just imagine one time, that Russia will does not exist tomorrow and China after tomorrow. What will you do? Do you like the one-polar world? US will be the biggest country who will needs your resourses and i think she will not want to pay you money for this. who will protect you?
Sergei, Moscow, Russia
Rissia just isn't thinking straight.............!!!!!!!
ian payne, walsall,
I wonder you're talking about russian hawks and doves but you forgot Mr. Saakashvili has stopped brodcasting all channels. Why?
What does he dread if he's right?
Alexei, S.Pete, Russia
Amazing to see all these Russians commenting in a British newspaper! I wonder if such a freedom of speech exists in Russia - or do they still worry about being visited by the new KGB and a one way trip to Siberia. Plenty of Americans criticise Bush - any Russians dare to say anything against Putin?
M G Graham, Auckland, New Zealand
We beleive that destroying georgian army that killed children and women of South Ossetia is right.
US cannot be trusted: it respects human rights when it is enough to control resources, and disdains them (and inspires war conflicts) when not.
Thanks BBC for showing Saakashvili chewing his tie!
Dmitriy, Ryazan, Russia
Harlon, obviously u have never heard of an event that occured on september 11, 2001. You know an attack on 3000 american civilians might persuade our government to increase our military spending, and what economic gains have we made in these two wars? The only positive out come is freeing millions.
Scott, Kansas City, Missouri, USA
Forget about Kosovo and Serbia. Putin doesn't care about anybody or anything but power. He was able to turn Russia into a fascist state and now wants to see how far he can push it, tie up some loose ends like the color revolutions while the West is weak.
Frank, Canada,
We need to understand that what would really make Russia feel isolated would be if its neighbours Georgia and Ukraine joined NATO and the EU. This partly explains its action in Georgia. Also, disproportionate responses are designed to show power: witness the US in Iraq and Israel in Lebanon.
Andrew, London,
Such an articles "increasingly isolate Russia from its abroad". It seems that author even don't understand about he is telling. He is living in deep past. Tell me all you civilized people of west, are you really read seriously such articles from day to day? I have a lot of fun reading it.
Evgeniy Denisov, Samara, Russia
Putin needs to impress his country for internal reasons. I believe the ordinary Russian is no different than the rest of us and wants to live in peace and earn respect, but diversion enables Putin to hold onto power.
William, London,
Leave Russia in repose! She nothing bad did not make! IT IS NOTHING! I consider, all this undu! The heads of countries again want war? Think about inhabitants who her do not want!
Kate, London,
Leave Russia in repose! She nothing bad did not make! IT IS NOTHING! I consider, all this undu! The heads of countries again want war? Think about inhabitants who her do not want!
Irina, Novosibirsk,
During the 80's I came across a presidential brief which had gotten into circulation, as these things do. It said simply access to mid eastern oil reserves was of "vital national interest." Three words. How and who defines them will determine future actions
glenn schaefer, holbrook, us
The USA decided to ignore international law on a number of occasions, specifically when recognizing Kosovo as an independent state. Not since Hitler carved up Czechoslovakia has a country been stripped of its land during peace time. The Americans have only themselves to blame for Georgia.
David, San Fransisco,
Thank you for this great article! Peace in Georgia!
Does not it seem like Russian Putin has something personal against ethnic Georgians? Why attacking Georgian villages and targeting innocent civilians? Robbing elderly villagers who depend on their live stock? This bloody war is on Putin's hands.
Tamuna G. , Tbilisi , Georgia
Every bit of this is about money.You can speak of Russian pride,blather about US empire, but at the end of the day it's all about cash.Every decision made in every capitol has to do with the economic consequences.Russia has lots of energy,thats their product.If you destroy your market,its worthless.
Ian, Austin TX, USA
The one country with the most trade links with Russia is Germany. And it is the German chancellor who is currently doing the shuttle diplomacy while Britain and the USA shout belicose threats. Merkel negotiates where Bush pontificates and Cameron struts his stuff. Germany is the honest broker.
John Walter, bonn, germany
The group which could cause the Russians to back down is the Middle-East oil producers - if they promised to keep the heating on in Europe then Germany might rediscover its backbone and lead a principled stance for the enlarged EU to cut ties with Russia. The era of the "energy war" is upon us.
Al, London,
Don't kid yourself, russia is holding all the strings on the fuel lines to europe. The tundra is thawing out and they have vast mineral fields. They also have excellent methods of dealing with hooligans and it will never be overpopulated.
m wilson, bidafche, france
See yourself what happened recently with Kosovo, Iraq, and the Middle Eest. The US and UK are constantly using negative campain against Russia so that nobody can stand against their crime. The world will be a peaceful place when the media and journalist are no longer bias .
bruce, Paramatta, Australia
Reminds me of the perhaps apocryphal early 20th century British newspaper banner :
"Fog in channel - Continent isolated,"
Most of the capital and market needs of Russia can be met in Asia (certainly not in the US anymore) and most of Europe's energy needs are rooted in Russia.
David Bracewell, Goa, India
USA massively increased it's military spending under Bush, while it's economic power declined. USA dipped it's toes in the water of war with Afghan. & Iraq. Russia & China know they must prepare for WW3 as USA replaces trade with force to try to keep it's wealth.
Harlan Leyside, Basildon, England
G A Clark, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Personally at me such sensation that when America bombed Serbia - it bombed Russia.
We with Serbia - the Christian countries
Vladimir, Moscow, Russia
Trade as a tool to isolate a nation can only work if you are an economic insignificant power without any energy source like Zimababwe.Not for Russia which has the biggest energy leverage in Europe.The present conflict has to be viewed in the context the her becoming s strong economic power again.
Arun Mehta, mumbai, India
I agree with G A Clark,
This is Russia drawing their line in the sand. They have seen the West & NATO take control of their former empire, dismantle the Serb controled Yugoslavia, now Georgia attacks Ossetia. A brutual response, yes, but what do you expect.
TONY, ROCHDALE, U.K.
Excellent piece. I would add that Vladimir Putin is aware of the dangers to Russia that would be posed by a proliferation of newly independent countries in the Caucasus. Russian security is threatened by the lack of effective central government control that would be a result.
James Canning, Seattle, USA
The fact is that the West is economically and resource dependent, and as Dwight Vandryver said - the West has always traded with "those with the money". In a second, Moscow could turn "the switch" off, leaving the majority of Europe without gas, electricity and so on.
Gregory, Moscow, Russia
Not true: Russia will not be isolated from global trade. The West has always traded with "those with the money", despite political or religious differences. The Russians aren't going to press the button either. The richer they become, the more they have to lose, like us.
Dwight Vandryver, Scholar Green, Cheshire, UK
The problem is that Russia feels an active and disproportionate support of the Rose Revolution in Georgia by the US which strongly reminds the relationship between Cuba and USSR back in the 60s. The US were actively sponsoring and inspiring the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. These activities are provocative and destabilize the situation in the region. Why the US not inspire a Whatever Colour Revolution in Venezuela. for instance? It's not a free democracy, it's much closer and there is a lot of oil out there. Oh, sorry, I forgot. The good neighbor policy.
Yury, London,
At last!
An unbiased, intelligent opinion of the crisis.
This calm analysis given to a diplomat (remember them?) and submitted to the Kremlin probably would move this forward just a little more than Bush or Cheney's outrageous threats (in the present circumstances) could ever achieve.
Jez W, Leeds,
I wonder how much the endorsement of Kosovo independence and the bombing of Serbia influenced the current Russian attitude toward the US and the rest of Europe?
G A Clark, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA