William Rees-Mogg
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Senator John McCain's choice of a running-mate was always going to be crucially important. He is 72 years old and has had episodes of skin cancer. From a medical and actuarial point of view, there must be a significant risk that he will not live to complete his first term as president, if elected. Whichever contender he chose for the vice-presidential nomination was bound to be scrutinised as having a real possibility of becoming the next president by right of succession.
Nobody is assuming that Senator Joe Biden will succeed Barack Obama; he is 18 years older - though there is an assassination risk. Yet all American voters in November will be conscious that a vote for the McCain-Palin ticket could put Governor Sarah Palin into the White House. Will the voters see her as adequate for that role? That is the measure of the risk that John McCain is taking. He is staking his whole campaign on the ability of a young woman whom he had met only once to convince the American people she could handle the jobs of commander-in-chief and president of the United States. She has precisely 65 days in which to do it, starting from last Thursday. That is a tall order.
The obvious argument against the idea of a Palin presidency is her inexperience. This argument is blunted because it has already been used against Barack Obama, both by Hillary Clinton and by the Republicans. In fact, most American presidents come to office without adequate previous experience. Indeed, one could say that there is no sufficient experience for the presidency, except by having been president before, and the Constitution forbids a third term.
Of the last five presidents, the older George Bush was a long-term Washington insider, and Ronald Reagan had been Governor of a big state, California, but Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and the younger Bush had little experience of international affairs or indeed of large-scale administration. The Governor of Texas does not have the powers of the Governor of California. If one substitutes Alaska for Arkansas, Sarah Palin is about as well qualified for the presidency in terms of experience as Bill Clinton in 1992.
Fortunately, there is no reason to think that John McCain's decease, even if, sadly, it should occur, is at all imminent. Given a couple of years as vice-president, Governor Palin could expect to meet most of the world's leaders. She would then have a wider international network than Senator Obama enjoys at present. The question that ought to be asked is not whether she has the experience, but whether she has the character and judgment.
There are some strong points in her record. She has an 80 per cent approval rating as Governor. I doubt whether there are at present any other governors in the United States whose ratings are even close to hers. Alaska is an oil state, with reserves almost as important as those of Canada. Governor Palin believes that Alaskan oil should be developed. That is already one of the central issues of energy policy, and she has developed her own position. That is not the action of a lightweight.
I'm afraid that a lot of sophisticated people will sneer at Governor Palin. She will get some of the backlash that women politicians have to expect. The men who talked down Hillary Clinton will talk down Sarah Palin as well. That goes with gender politics. On the other hand, some women, including some of the 18 million who voted for Hillary, will vote for Sarah, simply because she is a woman who might become the first woman president.
European visitors to the United States are mostly exposed to the East Coast culture; many Americans live wholly inside that culture. It is a culture of modernism, in no way to be despised, but it is not the only culture in America.
The view of the world from Harvard Yard is very different from the view from those states that Europeans seldom visit, and do not really understand. These are the states that have retained much of the religion, the practicality and the moral values of the frontier. In those states there is a conservative majority, based on the Bible, the Family and the Flag.
Senator McCain has found a running-mate who is not a neocon, which is a subtype of Washington intellectual, but a genuine conservative. The Reagan majorities in the elections of 1980 and 1984 were built on such conservative voters; many would still describe themselves as “Reagan Republicans”.
Governor Palin believes in honest government and cutting waste; she does not believe in gay marriages, she supports the “right to life” rather than the “right to choose”. She herself is raising a Down's syndrome child, having refused the abortion that would have been available. She is even a Darwin-sceptic and supports the teaching of creationism. She is a Pentecostalist, an unfashionable Church without the cachet of the black churches. She is no racist; her own children have Inuit blood. She calls herself a “hockey mom”; like Margaret Thatcher, she seems to combine basic conservative simplicities with a will of iron.
Most of her beliefs are regarded as obscurantist by modern America. Yet one should remember that there are more “hockey moms” in the United States than there are Harvard graduates. The cultural elite on the two coasts is highly significant; it dominates in the media, in academia and usually in politics. Yet conservatives can win elections because there are so many of them. They are the voters of the heartland, whom New Yorkers fly over on their way to Los Angeles.
At the end of the Democratic convention, it looked as though Senator Obama was bound to win. I still expect him to do so. Governor Palin is a high-risk choice, but Senator McCain has always been willing to take high risks. That is the privilege of the fighting soldier and of the political underdog.
William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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I question the statement that there are more hockey mums than Harvard graduates in the US. Hockey might be more popular in Alaska than most other places, but Alaska is small and she is not running for Canadian PM, where there ARE many, many more hockey mums per capita than in the US.
Fred Caprivi, Manchester,
I don't necessarily believe in creationism, but I have advanced degrees in the sciences, and the more you know about science, the more you come to believe in God. Most of my colleagues are the same way. I started out with few religious beliefs, but have come to religion through higher education.
Kevin, campton, usa
If John McCain survives another 3 years, he will have lived as long as the average American man. That would be pretty good going for someone who has gone through what he has gone through in life.
Jonathan Bryce, Reading, Berkshire
That is a better question for Obama
Jin, Bridgeport,
McCAin has had four melanoma's which puts him at immediate risk of many more tumours. Sarah Palin really could be soon in the White House and ruling us all. Look her over closely.
Audrey Butcher, Sunnyvale, USA
("I was a P.O.W., thus I can't be wrong") coupled with Palin. Oh yeah, I want a woman like this with the codes to our nukes a heart beat away (not)!
Our once great country is in ruins because we dont have a critical, analytical, methodical thinker at the helm. Face it-Obama is the only choice.
Florenzo, Scottsdale, AZ, USA
Anyone who is a Creationist should be barred from public office. Anyone who votes for one should be disenfranchised forthwith.
Ben, Wimbledon,
I remember the assassinations of the 1960s. However, I seriously doubt that there is any more chance of assassination if Obama is President than there might be if he loses. Think on that!
B.K. Lillicotch, Overland Park, USA
When the topic of his cancer scare, his age is brought up I tend to think this man you survived for years while being tortured would survive his term due to sheer determination. My vote is for John McCain not his running mate.
Patrick, Brooklyn , USA
Joe Biden is the only candidate running either for President or Vice President who has extensive foreign relations experience. The person who said NONE of the candidates has foreign relations experience doesn't know what he/she is talking about.
BeckLill, Kansas City, USA
Obama told SanFran elitists "Small town Americans cling to their guns, religion, and antipathy for those that don't look like they do." So, were a bunch of gun nuts, Jesus freaks, and racists. Hes not one of us Sara is! Barack belongs to a racist bigoted church for 22 years and he's casting stones?
Marty Fiacco, St Charles, Mo, usa
After 8 yrs of Neanderthal-rule, I'm ready for a more highly educated Whitehouse. When did "education" or "intelligence" become a fault for leaders? If having the US run by a highly educated person threatens you, get thee to school! Stop showing your insecurity! It's killing our country.
Eugene, Central VA, USA
Alaska is the first line of defense in the USAs missile interceptor defense system which protects the entire nation from ballistic missile attacks. As such, Governor Palin is regularly briefed on highly classified military intel, homeland security and counterterrorism issues that are vital to the country's defense and wellbeing.
Mike, Los Angeles, USA
What does she has tro prove? She has been governor of a satte for 2 years, her record is already there, what experience has Obama and his running mate in actual governmental issues? None of the Democratic contestants have any real experience in Foreign affairs either so, I guess the clate is clean.
AL, Chelmsford, UK
Who wants a "real" person in the White House? I'm a "real" person, my neighbor is a "real" person and I'll be damned if I should be in the White House. Oh wait! I have a vagina! Perhaps that qualifies me now as that seems to be all people care about now. Palin = another 4 years of stupidity.
Michele, San Antonio, USA
It's really sad that some (few) Americans are so afraid of the reality of creationism! Science? Science has yet to prove anything but more questions and no answers. Don't be so afraid to expand your horizons & intellect to believe in a Being - God who created all that we see.
Jim Maxwell, Fredericksburg, VA, USA
"These are the states that have retained much of the religion, the practicality and the moral values of the frontier. In those states there is a conservative majority, based on the Bible, the Family and the Flag."
_
Well, well, what have we here? Tory Pastoral, it looks like.
John H. McCloskey, Cambridge MA, USA
Anybody who believes in creationism is a bit scary. To think that all science is wrong and that the world was really built in 6 days 6000 years ago is so irrational that that perso is capable of any lunacy. And she could be president!
charlie clark, glasgow,
If Obama has one white parent and one black parent and was raised by white grandparents why is he considered the first black presidental candidate. Why isn't he the first mutli-racial or white for that matter. I'm sure his grandparents love his judgement and character. Palin is genuine.
Matt, Novi, USA
the comments highlight one of the reasons Palin will play well in the heartland. Her lack of a degree from Yale/Harvard/Wellesley/et al will play very well with middle class america. Why do you think Obama picked Biden and played up his PA roots and degree from Syracuse?
Paul Gross, Taylorsville, USA
If the standard of character and judgment is what Bill Clinton demonstrated then we have nothing to worry about at all.
Rob, La Mirada, CA, USA
Arguments regarding Gov. Sarah Palin's experience miss the genius of this pick. She is a very "real" person, not the phony that Sen. Barack Obama seems to be. Americans love real people -- as opposed to Ivy-educated, career politicians. Besides, the base is jazzed; I see a McCain-Palin avalanche.
Dave, Raleigh, NC, USA
Character is a very interesting subject. One definition of character is "reputation". I would think Governor Sarah Palin's reputation compared to many politicians, including some past Presidents, is above reproach. I personally vote on a candidates documented past character. I think Sarah is OK here
David, Wichita, USA
A woman with 4 children under 18, one a baby with Downs, should not be at work at all, she should be at home raising her children. Trying to have a high profile job as well means that either the job or the children are getting a half-person dedicated to them, wrong either way. Come back in 10 years.
Emilia, North Yorkshire,
In most other nations Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin would be a joke contest, even inconceivable. McCain has picked a poorly educated, unknown creationist, who was very recently part-time mayor of a tiny Alaska town and only recently got a passport! But Bush was elected - twice! "Only in America!
Vaseem Akbar, London, UK
MKD, South Carolina, USA
she is not running against Clinton
Anthony L, Chelmsford, UK
The Palin choice, after one, maybe two meetings has to be the most crazy choice by McCain. So was she vetted thoroughly? How closely was she looked at for the second most important job in the USA? A traffic warden in London would get more scrutiny than she got. What a first class blunder. Go Obama.
Adam, London, UK
Interesting to read the comment critical of Mrs P. Much of it is elitist - she's only got a BA, she eats mooseburgers and so on. Perhaps that's just the response McCain is hoping for. It suggests a disconnect between the Democrats and the 'heartland'. The more I think of this the cleverer it seems.
Mark, Berkhamsted,
Frances, Floral Park, USA
are you saying that Obama or his running mate stand abetter chance Mrs Palin?
None of them has any real foreign experience, and mr Putin would eat the democrats for breakfast, look at the way he has outfoxed all the other world wide more experienced politicos.
Anthony L, Chelmsford, UK
Umm - "Cat Strange" dear - do take a moment to properly spell your hometown - the typo is inadvertently minimizing the speciousness of your smear, and we all know you wouldn't want that.
rhodeymark, Providence, RI
Nik Nichols, Winston-Salem, USA
I hope that Mrs Palin has the same iron will as Mrs Thatcher had, the USA needs it, I only wish that MRS Thatcher was back in the UK. 10 years of New labour is enough, the country is destroyed.
Anthony L, Chelmsford, UK
Blair showed that attending a top university is no guarantee of judgment in foreign affairs. However, Obama has lived abroad and is clearly smart and well informed on geo-politics. Palin recently acquired a passport. The US needs leaders who understand what is going on in the rest of the world.
mike Scott, ny, USA
Don't for get she also knows how to field dress a moose, and she can bait her own hook. Now that's change I can believe in!
peter, miami, usa
You are on target with your assessment concerning the evaluation of Gov. Palin's character and judgment. In so many variegated ways, she does represent the "heartland". It behooves the Republican party to make note of your comment that Palin's experience rivals Bill Clinton's when he ran.
Brian, Virginia Beach,
Sarah Palin appears to be a real person who has been able to rise to every challenge that she has aspired to. I have wanted the chance to choose between the insiders or someone who lives, thinks and acts like I do... now I have the chance to choose. McCain/Palin have my vote.
Jeff Mantz, Manchester, NH, USA
A lot of McCain supporters only look at the abortion issue, isnt there any thing else we have to be concerned about? How about feeding our children, keeping our jobs in the US, keeping our homes, stop borrowing money from China, Do you really think Palin could deal with that?
Jeanette, Miami, USA
What the chattering party going ' east coasters', seem to find well beyond them, is that rural folks HAVE THE VOTE. And they use it. The US is vast, completely beyond the imagination of most urban UK voters. People think differently, and live differently, that's just how it is!
David Vinter,, Louth, Lincs,, UK.
We shouldn't dismiss Ms. Sarah Palin because she is fiscally responsible, honest and decent. They seem to be traits missing from the present administration.
Frank Madigan, Capreol, Canada
Very logical analysis of US voting segmentation - specifically referencing the traditional values of heartland USA.
I am not a betting man - but as a former consultant whose past prognoses have been consistently accurate, I would suggest that Palin / McCain ticket is the Heartland ticket - to Win
Richard, Bucharest,
She's plainly underqualified for someone but a heartbeat away from the Presidency, but hey we are talking about the land of the free and the home of the congenitally conservative. She's young, personable, a conviction politician and a woman. That, for this race, means she gets the ticket.
Mark, Reading, UK
Old and very tired Europe. Let us Yanks worry about this election. Once we are done we'll let you know how we will CONTINUE to run OUR WORLD.
Hey Moggie - the real men that will be voting for Palin are not the ones that didn't vote for Clinton. Besides were they voting for her or against him?
Ben Thomas, Indianpolis, UNITES STATES
A Darwin Sceptic eh...I wonder where the dinosaurs came from? Probably a left wing plot to undermine the bible...
These 'creationist' bible thumping loony tunes get on my nerves...
Armand Tamzarian, London,
I'm not worried about McCain's age. He's tough and comes from a long-lived family, unlike Obama. It doesn't help that the Dems portray Obi-One as an honorary assassination victim. If he were sufficient in himself, they wouldn't need to borrow victimhood from every doomed historical martyr.
John B, Middlesbrough, UK
Wow, another four years of the same thing if Mccain gets elected.
Mccain's team is a whole bunch of racist biggots.
On the news i was shocked when a supporter said "you can have your Tiger Woods, but we got Mccain".
Proves the race card is still going to played...
Way to go America!
Ricky M, England,
Hopefully Obama and Clinton will make the case that a vote for Palin is a vote for a third bible thumping term, and scrapping roe v wade. Gays could forget any extension on their rights as well.
Neil Murphy, Cromer,
I think that many people in the UK assume that Obama will be the next US President and I hope that they are correct. However, I think that even if he survives assassination, and that is not a given, that his decision not to name Hilliary Clinton as his VP will cost him the election. Tragic.
Jim Doyle, Beijing, China
I didnt know she was running against Bill Clinton, but she has more talent then her critics on this comment board in her pinky finger. And I bet she wont give all our satelite and missile tech to China in exchange for donations.
Jason, Everett, USA
The McCain Palin win this year will set the USA up for the 2012 dream team - Palin-Jindal 2012 - !
Walt, Wheaton, IL, USA
Sarah Palin is articulate, intelligent, energetic and a winner! She and Senator McCain will be an unbeatable team and the Dems are already shaking in their boots. The Dems/liberals will try everything to trash her but this only makes them appear to be the petty losers they are who have no answers.
Steve , Lebanon, USA
Excellent comments. The success or failure of our past presidents hasn't been determioned by experience but by their policy stances. Sarah Palin is on teh right side of the key policy issues - most importantly that Washington and bigger government isn't the answer to our challenges.
Joe Hamilton, Burlingame, USA
I think Mr. Rees-Mogg believes that two years in a governorship lends about as much experience as 10; there aren't that many novel situations that one faces running a state from one year to the next. Illinois' governor, Rod Blagojevic, certainly hasn't gotten any better at the job in his tenure...
Matt, Chicago, IL, USA
Hopefully, all the reservations expressed re Gov. Palin's place on the Republican ticket will be put to rest when Obama is elected President!
Michael A, Tucson, USA
Clinton was Attorney General of Arkansas and elected Gov 3 times, with a gap between his first time and second. A bit more experience than Palin.
Tommy, San Jose, USA
I'm sorry, but even I have a better education than Sarah Palin. It's from a better university & in a field more relevant to politics - history. Communications-Journalism isn't even a legitimate major. She also studied business (at a JC) like W.
You don't see me on a VP ticket, so why's she on one?
Eric, California, USA
McCain was murdering innocent Vietnamese civilians for the 23rd time when he lost his plane. That might make him a soldier from 40 odd years ago but doesn't make him anything more than a war criminal and mass murderer.
He seems to be called a Maverick, but where is the evidence that he is?
Marilyn, Adelaide,
I understand that her "creationist" thinking is that when evolution is taught in high school, she would simply not forbid mention that some postulate a creationist viewpoint. She has not promoted any change in the science curriculum in Alaska, where evolution is taught in science classes.
Larry, Fresno, USA
With a career as demanding as Sarah Palin's I find it hard to believe that "she herself is raising a Down's syndrome child". She must presumably be getting a lot of help,either paid or unpaid, in order to parent effectively? Worthy as this may be it is simply not the same as doing it "herself"...
Andy, Preston, England
I'm confused by the idea that Sarah Palin is as qualified as Bill Clinton in 1992 considering that she has been governor for two years and he was governor for closer to ten.
MKD, South Carolina, USA
The fact that she supports creationism is sufficient to disqualify Sarah palin from high office. McCain has demonstrated his utter contempt for the federal government to the electorate, which should respond by massively voting against him.
Mandy, New York, USA
"The cultural elite on the two coasts is highly significant; it dominates in the media, in academia and usually in politics."
When has this "cultural elite" dominated politics? No, they take great pride in identifying themselves with losing causes.
Chris Hollins, Charlotte,
"Palin is about as well qualified ... as Bill Clinton in 1992." Clinton had been Governor of Arkansas for twelve years, and state attorney general before that. And he had a {postgraduate) law degree from Yale. Alaska has quarter the population of Ark., she's been governor for 2 yrs. and has a BA.
Ross, Binghamton NY, USA
Anyone who questions Palin on the basis of experience should likewise look at Obama and ask the very same question. At least we know what she stands for instead of some vague words like "Change" and "Hope."
Cliff Leverette, Madison, USA
I've been through the south and central states and it's a good life and I find it difficult to argue with that, but the benefits of recent past have gone to a small proportion of people and the cost to the urban areas has hardened attitudes -A manufactured conflict which is really unnecessary
glenn schaefer, holbrook, us
We are at a critical juncture. If Palin becomes President and is eye-to-eye with Putin, will it make a difference that she is pro-life or that she eats moose burgers? She is a blank slate like W and can be easily manipulated. We need a Pres who won't continue to erode our Constitution any further.
Frances, Floral Park, USA
I very much appreciate the Rees-Mogg comment about the similarities of Gov Palin to the great PM Margaret Thatcher whose "iron will" Palin also posesses. The first time I saw and heard Gov. Palin that was my immediate impression, and I immediately informed my friends of that fact. Thanks.
Nik Nichols, Winston-Salem, USA
Well I personally feel like she's a good match for McCain. She's a beauty queen just like his wife, and she flip-flops just like him. Her first real moment on the campaign and she lied about her original position the the "bridge to nowhere" and pork barrel spending. Sounds like a strong Christian.
Cat Strange, Raliegh, North Carolina
"Senator McCain has always been willing to take high risks" ... as well-evidenced by the three military aircraft he lost before ever serving in a combat zone. He seems to be a person in love with his whims, fully believing that an ironic turn of thought that momentarily captivates him must be true.
JD, Maryland, USA
Lord Rees-Mogg, you are too pessimistic. Barring some unfortunate event, I expect Senator McCain to be elected by a comfortable margin.
The opinion polls that favor Senator Obama are highly suspect due to the well-known Bradley effect. The truth will be known on the evening of November, 4th
Doug Sterling, Rutherford, NJ, USA
Here's a big question: "How many of those 18 million votes were really for Hillary?""
Many who voted for Hillary were in actuality voting against Obama.
To assume those voters will automatically vote for a woman just because she is a woman is as erroneous as assuming they will vote for Obama.
Cort, Washington, DC, US
Palin represents the sort of "anyone can be President" notion that typifies the US. Who is to say that such views are no longer current?
e larkin, toronto,
The real question is, do either Obama or Biden have the judgment to be commander-in-chief? Neither will admit that the surge has worked. Both opposed it. Last year Biden offered his plan: Partition Iraq into ethnic areas. If you were not so biased you would take a hard look at the Democrat team
Oscar Green, Chuluota, USA
This choice is high risk and it is also plain dumb. She's been hand picked by the religious right to be the possible successor to someone running for what may be called the world's most important job. The press has been harder on Obama's lack of experience than hers. That's patronizing AND sexist.
Celeste, New York, NY, USA
In the 1980s, while Obama was still engaging in "youthful indescretions", Biden steadfastly opposed Ronald Reagan every step of the way. He was a strong proponent of a nuclear freeze. So the evidence is that Biden may have many years in the Senate, but his judgments have always been wrong.
Oscar Green, Chuluota, USA
Right -just like Neville Chamberlain did.
james bradfield, palm city, fl
Yes, look at Switzerland. As an Orson Wells character said, "In Switzerland, they had brotherly love and five hundred years of democracy and peace, and what did they produce? The cuckoo clock! "
The president paradoxically does not have much power to change many decisions in the country. Groete.
ellenO, Toronto, Canada
sn't it time for the USA to get ou of the cult of the personality style leadership - why should one preson have this much power - look at Switzerland
haralambos, joburg,