William Rees-Mogg
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The global recession is now about a year old; it can be dated from early August of last year. The decline in the Labour Party's support is just less than a year old; it can be dated from last year's Conservative Party conference, from the contrast between the speeches of Gordon Brown and David Cameron.
Mr Brown uses this coincidence to blame his difficulties on external economic problems, an excuse that the public has not accepted. The Prime Minister blames the collapse of Labour's support on the credit crunch; the public remember that he was Chancellor from 1997 to 2006, and hold him responsible for the state of the economy. He is also blamed for the absurd promise to abolish boom and bust. That promise shows that he never understood how the world economy works. He seemed a safe pair of hands, but has proved a butterfingers.
However, there is a real connection between the recession and the revolt in the Labour Party. Unless there is a global recovery, Labour's position will get worse. A recent poll shows a Tory lead of 19 per cent, which would give them a majority of more than 150 seats. The next election has to take place by early June 2010. The argument for keeping Mr Brown as leader is that there could be an economic recovery before then.
This is not a strong reason for keeping a Prime Minister who has lost the confidence of voters. In the West Country, where I live, Tory canvassers are astonished by the collapse of the once loyal Labour vote. They report that, even in the old coal-mining districts, voters repeatedly say that they have always voted Labour, but “never again”.
After the pound had to leave the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992, there was a similar reaction against John Major's Conservative Government. There was an economic recovery before the 1997 general election. The voters did not change their decision. The danger for Labour is that the recession will get worse.
Long-term economic forecasting is liable to error. Nonetheless, the outlook is disturbing. Alistair Darling, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, may have exaggerated when he described the economic position as the worst for 60 or 70 years, but it remains bad. The credit crunch has destroyed confidence in the banking system. The bail-out of Fannie May and Freddie Mac has transferred a contingent liability of $5.4 trillion to the US Treasury, equal to the whole US national debt.
Lehman Brothers, which would have been considered “too large to fail”, may disappear this week if a rescue cannot be arranged. The world's airlines are losing money, and Alitalia cannot even afford fuel for its elderly aircraft.
Major recessions, of which this is one, take years before recovery. In Britain, the Great Depression started with the return to gold in 1925 and began to recover in 1933; in the US the depression began with the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and only recovered with the demand for war equipment in 1939. If this recession only lasted for three or four years, it would run beyond the next election.
What can Labour do? The American conventions have shown the advantages of a fresh choice. Three of the four candidates, Barack Obama, John McCain and Sarah Palin have a real appeal to voters and seem to represent a new deal. They do not offer any convincing policy for ending the recession.
Perhaps it would be unreasonable to expect a Labour leadership election to throw up new proposals for dealing with the British recession. Yet the candidates would have to talk about the economy. Labour would also have to review its social policy. The failure to carry through the reforms that Tony Blair promised in 1997 was the beginning of Labour's decline. If Labour did have an election for a new leader, the policy debate would spread through the candidates, and opposition parties as well. That would make the Labour Party more interesting.
Mr Brown has his political skills; we should not underestimate them. But the most widespread criticism is that he is boring - people also see him as something of a bully. These were not criticisms made of Mr Blair, whom people found interesting even when they strongly disapproved of what he was doing.
It is usually true that boring men choose boring colleagues. Neville Chamberlain, whom his contemporaries found excessively boring, stuffed his Cabinet in the 1930s with such crashing bores that it would be unkind to name them. I remember one solemnly explaining his policy creed. “What I always say is, when you don't know what to do, the best thing to do is - nothing.”
A leadership election this autumn would show whether Labour has run out of intellectual creativity, or if there are new people who would put themselves forward, as David Cameron did in 2005. If, again, one looks at US politics, one might see greater vitality among the women. I am probably biased in favour of Ruth Kelly, as a fellow Roman Catholic, but she has a genuine individuality of interests and ideas. I think she could rescue Labour from being the boring party, just as Mr Cameron rescued the Conservatives from being the nasty party. Such changes of image, as with the Republicans and Mrs Palin, can rescue a party. Women are often better than men at changing a party's image.
I still think that Labour's obvious candidate for the leadership is their elected deputy, Harriet Harman. She has remained loyal to Mr Brown but moved to the left in her speech on social class to the TUC.
Both are shrewd moves. The three parts of the Labour electorate for leader are the unions, party members and MPs. The Blairites cannot win in the first two constituencies, both of which play well to slightly left-wing loyalists. If Labour MPs thought that she could help them to hold their seats, they would go along with Ms Harman. A Harman-Kelly battle would at least restore some interest to Labour politics, but it would not solve the world recession.
William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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I don't think that any of our politicians are transparent, they promise this, they promise that, it's all a game to them, look at the rewards Mps get in pay!! In a time of recesion why did Mps get a pay rise!!At present i'm unemployed, but i still have to get by with my limited money!!
Melvin, Feminazi Hereford, UK
Gordon Brown is the worst Chancellor of the Exchequer since Winston Churchill in the 1920s and for much the same reasons. Like Churchill he has destroyed what little competitiveness Britain has had and thus has made Britain more susceptible to the global downturn with his taxation and regulations.
Peter Milsom, Birkenhead, Merseyside
Brown should go and leave the Cabinet in the hands of Jacqui Smith, Baroness Scotland, Julia Goldsworthy, Shami Chakrabati and Nigella Lawson etc. Now thats cross party. One thing for sure it wouldn't boring as most of the current labournistas.
George, London, UK
I always read Lord Rees-Mogg with great pleasure. But sometimes he really is 'Mystic Mogg'. From this article, one would not know he used to talk up Brown as a formidable political and economic operator. As for Ruth Kelly as PM: the exhumed corpse of Hattie Jacques would be a more plausible runner.
Geoff, Blackheath, London,
His Party should look to years of opposition as a punishment for being so arrogant and disrespectful to us the electorate !!!!!
IAN PAYNE, WALSALL,
I used to vote for Tony Balir, never for Labour! and i will always vote for the individual, the party means nothing to me as they all occcupy the safe ground in the middle.
We will never ever have a Palin as all out politicians are far to fearfull of saying something that might someone somewhere.
Jim, Bournemouth, UK
With this perhaps Rees-Mogg is showing it is time he was bowing out. Harman? Mrs Jack Dromey leading the country? The worst political SatNav imaginable. Put your feet up and keep quiet William
Dr J Findlater, Carnforth,
I think that either of Ruth Kelly or Harriet Harman would be disastrous for the Labour Party Tony Blair was forced to move both of them on as they proved to be so ineffective in their respective jobs. It is clear that the Labour party has to get rid of Gordon Brown but they need someone capable of doing the job. I personally think the man that they need is Tony Blair!
Mark, Bath, England
As well suggest that Labour would do well if Brown got his hair restyled. Democracy really isnt a good system is it? Not as bad as the alternatives, but all the same, not for grown ups.
julia, london,
Do you mean Brown should go out and shoot a moose? After shooting himself in the foot so many times, I fear he's now run out of ammo.
Steve Smedley, Woodbridge, Suffolk, UK
Labour need a new pig with lipstick to bring home the bacon and kiss the babies, not those suggested.
Paul Steiger, Lincoln,
In the Labour Party in1965 were Barbara Castle, Dennis Healey, Douglas Jay, Earl of Longford, Frank Cousins
George Brown, Harold Wilson, James Callaghan, Richard Crossman etc. Need I say more to anyone who remembers these serious, intelligent and experienced politicians?
Kevin Straw, Leicester,
John Reid is the answer to Labour's current problems. One of the best media performers in top-level politics today, very wide experience, not associated with the disaster of the Brown administration. Labour need to hold their nerve and replace a Scot who can't win with one who might.
Nicky, Norwich, UK
WRM presents a great thought,however most of the Labour woman I see are dull,but then again maybe it is all down to labour being bereft of any new political thinking.Even the ladies will not save the Labour Party.
margot parker, Kettering, UK
Please don't further encourage the duplicitous Ms Harman and her Dromey [Blair knifer] co-assassin.
Noticably she's said little to discourage, and certainly nothing to condemn 'her' brave [or suicidal] Amazonian rebels.
Remember too that Ms Dromey was at least populary elected
only last year.
dave, cumbria, england
William - Tory days are back , and soon the lower orders will be tugging their forelocks at their betters . Your nighmare living in the west country with a labour government will soon be over.
iain rae, tunbridge wells, t.w.
Bill you are talking tripe. Labour have had it and a bloody good job too. Harperson will only succeed in guaranteeing that happens.
Satnam Singh, stanion,
What's all this guff about a "narrative"?
Sarah Jay, Dartmouth, Canada
Charisma and wit have nothing to do with it, Sarah palin will I'm sure end up being a double edged sword, whilst she is obviously charismatic she is too much so, she will say things that stray out of line with Mcain and inevitably split the ticket.
Dewey, Portsmouth, UK
Ruth Kelly, as a woman myself she is the last person I would go for. Furthermore in the UK "we don't do God" - thank goodness, evn if WRM wishes we did! Ruth Kelly would be a step backwards!
sam, London, England
The only problem with your plan William is that no one would vote for those ladies.
To win you need to get votes.
That is how it works.
M Reid, Northampton,
I am afraid the WRM needs to spend a little more time at the pub before writing such articles. Then he would hear what traditional Labour voters think of his female selections. I'm afraid his ears would turn blue. No sorry, it's back to the drawing board.
William, Guildford, UK
Has WRM lost the plot or has he always been stark raving mad? Ruth Kelly!!! with that voice & H/Harperson who would make it illegal to be male??? Please, let's have some serious debate.
Norman Conquest, Oliva, Spain
Madam, you are totally and utterly biased if you think Ruth Kelly is in any way charismatic or exciting. Hazel Blears is remarkably unappealing. Harriet Har-person has alienated every male in the country. There is no rescue for Labour to be found here.
Dan, Aspley Guise, England
WRM is right that we could do with a Palin figure in the UK, but the point is that she offers something new! Harman is dyed in the wool old Labour and unions. Her latest speech on class reminded me of Back to Basics. Totally Victorian in its outlook, and desperate to boot.
Martin, Birmingham,
Oh dear ,,,,,,oh dear.
We need more Harmans and Smiths..???
Get Real!!
These useless parasite wasps are a Disaster for Britain
The whole rotten crew is a catastrophe.
What are they doing?????
Nothing...
eric, storlien , Sweden
I agree that Labour needs a leader who is interesting and has a clear narrative. But it does not follow that a woman - any woman - is the solution. Palin is a red herring. What Labour needs is bruiser Reid, a man who would make mincemeat of Cameron, and inform as well as entertain the public.
ben, London,
I don't want to be entertained by politicians I want to be governed! I'm happy to be told what not to do, as long as those who tell me stick to their own rules! Not speeding, not wasting things, looking after the planet, saving, sticking to a relationship AND not stealing - esp. from public purse!!
Esther Phillips, Leatherhead,
Palin is an opportunistic populist and demagogue, whose star will hopefully quickly fade. Why would someone of similar ilk help the fast-sinking ship of Labour? It's time for a change, as simple as that. Labour meant well, but has messed up.
S.C. Huldig, London,
Harriet Harman? You must be joking. Her feminist dictats are outrageous; I expect so even to women. In that respect she is no Palin (though I expect harman is not quite as bonkers as palin).
Andrew, Cambridge,
Just resign Gordon, it's the right thing to do given all the circumstances. Your party will benefit in the longrun if you do.
David, London, UK
There is not a single politician in the UK government who has the charisma or wit to lead us out of the mess we are in now. So focused on the War on Terror for the last 7 years we have lost all sight of where we truly want to be and who we really are as a country. A fresh start is needed.
jim, london, uk
The fallacy in WRM's argument lies in the fact that Sarah Palin is a woman whereas Labour can merely field wimmin for the position, which in turn constitutes an oxymoron.
Sorry, no cigar.
Bartman, London,
Are you trying to kill off Labour completely? Electing Hectoring Harman to the leadership wld be the kiss of death for Labour. She's antagonised white males with her 'equality' proposals & is only marginally less patronising than Patricia Hewett. All the 'top' Labour women are dreadful nags/nannies.
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
First is a bit confusing to say that the British electorate is and want the same thing like the American electorate, United Kingdom has different structure and I do not think a lady like Palin would have the same effect on British structure, anyway I hope I'm wrong
Lec Neli, London, UK
Wont it be a comparitive unknown like John Major when Thatcher was booted. Super Mac when Eden was found not to be up to it. My history is not good enough but will the Bottler last longer than Eden did ?They both were PM's in waiting for a number of years then crashed and burned A lesson somewhere?
Stephen, London, UK
It must be April Fools day as the very thought that Harman should lead Labour is a joke (or a nightmare) although it would be good for the Country since it would kill off and bury Labour for good.
R J Cook, Welwyn Garden City, England
Couldn't be that people are just utterly fed up with the La bour administration in general, could it? Personally, I can't see that anyone, male or female, can save this particular sinking ship. They've already had more than eleven years to get things right - you want more of the sasme? PERLEASE.
Colin Cumner, Adelaide, South Australia.
Surely the Labour equivalent of Palin would be some utterly non-PC Labour MP such as Margaret Hodge (but with better glasses).
dave, hove, UK
Harman and Kelly?! You might as well go totally bonkers and suggest Hazel Blears and Dawn Primarolo. I can't think of any Labour women - who all seem to owe their positions to positive discrimination rather than talent and merit - who I would trust to run a bath, let alone a country.
Chris K, Cheltenham, UK
Nice one, Ronnie ! Uts not about getting women in to with their recognised and valuable predilection for safety and social consciense. We need a leader to help the less fortunate whilst demanding responsibility, less social dictat, and honesty. Brown and his sycophants display none of these.
Robert, Hong Kong, China
Harman - are you kidding? Judging by blogs, this woman -nicknamed everything from Harridan Harperson to Harried Harm-man - is loathed (by both sexes). Do you really think that buying her one of the Sarah Palin wig-and-specs sets that are selling well in the US will turn her into a vote winner?
Janet Davis, Sydney, Australia
Your last paragraph shows you still have a sense of humor.
Very funny, I presume it was meant as a joke.???????
James, Brighton, UK
Also as a Catholic, I would say that Kelly is yet another unmitigated Labour disaster. And as for the Harman woman, please give us a break.
Michael, Poperinge, Belgium
Ah yes. For Labour to get out of the mess it's in what it needs is more Harman, Smith, Jowell, Cooper and all the rest of the monstrous regiment of socialst women. If Harman becomes PM it's going to get really interesting. Britain's first total failure woman prime minister. She will kill Labour.
John, Bangkok, Thailand
God forbid if Harriet Harman is to go by no thanks and goodbye!
Dave Farmer, Broxbourne, England
I recall, from the jokes of a couple of decades ago, that Essex is full of pitbulls (or should it be pitcows?) with lip gloss. There must be someone there.
Bill Peter, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
I was hoping the Palin effect, would involve a trip on the Trans Siberian Railway.
ronnie, bucks, UK