William Rees-Mogg
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In most of his recent speeches and interviews, David Cameron has spoken about the significance of the Conservative team. His young group at the top of the party are indeed “the brightest and best” the party can produce. Mr Cameron himself is only 41; his Shadow Foreign Secretary, William Hague, is only 47, with four year's experience as Leader of the Opposition behind him; his Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, is only 37; the Tories' one-man think-tank, Michael Gove, is another 41-year-old.
One might have to go back to 1951 to find a comparable team. When the Conservatives came back to power, Churchill became Prime Minister, Eden was Foreign Secretary, Rab Butler was Chancellor as well as being the leading policymaker, and Macmillan was asked to build 300,000 houses.
You cannot beat that as a team, but they had one disadvantage against Mr Cameron's top table - they were on average more than 20 years older. Even so, they dominated British politics until Macmillan retired in 1963. Mr Cameron's team have the zest and energy of youth, but they also have time on their side; they have a potential opportunity to dominate British politics for the next ten years or more, as Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were able, for better or worse, to do after 1997. Individually they are more than a match for their Labour rivals, department by department and debate by debate.
When a new Conservative administration comes to office it is usually at a time of economic trouble. That was the case when the National Government was formed in 1931, and again in 1951, when Aneurin Bevan had recently resigned in protest against Hugh Gaitskell's Budget. It happened again in 1970, though the Labour Chancellor, Roy Jenkins, had started a recovery, and again in 1979, when Margaret Thatcher came to power. If the Conservatives return to power in 2010, as is quite likely, they will again inherit a crisis economy.
One can never be sure about economic forecasts. So far, each stage of this crisis has been seen as the recovery point, only to be followed by an even more alarming stage. One can only offer a more or less plausible expectation. In my lifetime, most recessions have been saucer-shaped, with approximately a four-year period of distress. We are only one year into the most alarming financial crisis since the early 1930s. The Great Depression of those years started as a stock market panic in the autumn on 1929, appeared to be in a recovery phase in the first half of 1930, and then progressed through bank closures to a belated recovery in 1933 and after. Franklin Roosevelt was elected President in November 1932.
If the present crisis should follow a similar four-year pattern, recovery could be expected in the second half of 2011, but such a forecast would be over-precise. However, the American public were made very angry by the Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson's initial proposal. He asked to be given $700 billion to bail out Wall Street, entirely at his own discretion. The public response makes it unlikely that the Republicans will win in the November elections, either for Congress or for the White House. The rule of financial panics is that the incumbents have to take the responsibility.
Both the Conservative analysis of the crisis and their new policy proposals are orthodox and realistic. They emphasise the significance of excessive debt, not only private debt, but also the growth of public debt. Here the Tories have an entirely legitimate political target for an Opposition. The annual Budget deficit is now rising from £50 billion towards £100 billion. This limits the freedom of action of the Government. Excessive public debt has an opportunity cost in terms of public policy. It makes it much more difficult to handle a crisis.
There is no doubt that the Prime Minister is personally and directly responsible for the explosive rise in public debt. He was Chancellor at the time when the Treasury policy was changed from “prudence” to “investment”. In the Labour vocabulary investment is another word for expenditure. The motive was political: expenditure was increased in order to win elections in 2001 and 2005. Gordon Brown still dictates the financial policy of the Government. Alistair Darling, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, inherited Mr Brown's policies and carries out his wishes.
The Conservatives propose to create a new body which will vet the development of public expenditure, so as to avoid repeating the bubble of debt of the Brown years. That ought of course to be the job of the Treasury; but the Treasury can say “no” to anyone except the Prime Minister. Mr Brown is still their boss, and by all accounts a ruthless one. He has the power to say, “Go and thou goest”. Mr Paulson asked for that power, but was refused by Congress.
The Conservatives are rightly determined to stabilise the British economy. That is their core policy. They know that it will be difficult to achieve. Strangely, there are still many people who have not yet realised the full seriousness of the banking crisis. They think it can be mitigated by increasing public expenditure. The Prime Minister seems willing to do that.
Until the Budget itself has been stabilised, the British economy will remain very vulnerable. There will be a lack of confidence, both in Britain and abroad. As an important trading nation, Britain cannot afford to live on the cliff edge. We need, as the Conservatives argue, to be one of the most creditworthy of the trading nations. Then we shall be able to take our opportunities. Our economy has always worked best when the Budget has been balanced. That was the state of affairs which Mr Brown inherited from Kenneth Clarke in 1997. It took him ten years to throw it away. He should remember that it is always easy to lose trust, but very hard to regain it.
William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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"Individually they are more than a match for their Labour rivals, department by department...."
That may be true, but thinking about it I find that this marvellous Tory clique of which you think so highly, William, are no match for the Lib Dems. Especially on the economy, of course.
Robin Young, London, UK
Best Tory team in 50 years well I hope so if only David Cameron was a little more 'Churcillian' If my own M.P is anything to go by, who works tirelessly for his contituance, this replicated throughout the UK would give most of us cause for celebration.& David Milliband job security of 15 years opps.
Dave Farmer, Broxbourne, England
Best Tory team in 50 years well I hope so if only David Cameron was a little more 'Churcillian' If my own M.P is anything to go by, who works tirelessly for his contituance, this replicated throughout the UK would give most of us cause for celebration.& David Milliband job security of 15 years opps.
Dave Farmer, Broxbourne, England
"When a new Conservative administration comes to office it is usually at a time of economic trouble."
Shouldn't that read "a new Conservative government"? No separation of powers in Blighty, you know.
CT Barbarian, Fairfield CT, United States
It is their very appearance that may work against them as the result of this catastrophic financial fiasco -not of their making-- but sadly they resemble just the sort of pseudo spiv investment bankers with Bentley's and bonuses that people revile.
An elder statesman is needed to gain voter trust.
james allen, manchester, england
I think I've got it now: William Rees- Mogg is being comic-mock-ironic, or something like that. Right? But Steven, from Hobart Australia? Heaven only knows what he's banging on about. Decadent? Not much fun in Tazmania then.
Cirep G Nol, London,
If they are that good, why do they want Hazel Blears?
Giles, Nottingham,
How can you possibly claim that they are the best in 50 years? On the basis of frequently glib and opportunistic statements form their leadership? Their apparent popularity is more due to the current government's incompetence than any recent Tory achievements.
Gervas Douglas, Andorra la Vella, Andorra
You must have a short memories.
Bring back Tories that actually have experiance of both business and life.
Bernard Parke, GUILDFORD, Surrey
Best Tory team!
Best economic sense spoken recently comes from Vince Cable -LibDem, a pity.
When Nulabour came in my view was that they were the 'other tories'. Maybe Mr Cameron is peeved that Mr Brown fleeced ordinary workers better than the Tories ever could.
No proper voting choices for me!
Jo, Newton Abbot, England
"These people simply don't live in the same world as us"
Does John, Aberdeen, think the Labour leadership are 'men of the people'? Dream on! They've spent more time hanging out with and accommodating the super rich than all previous administrations put together!
anne, bournemouth,
Quote: "Cameron could field a shadow cabinet of sheep dyed blue and still expect a commanding victory."
Excellent judgement !
Just the same as Tony Blair won the 3 term over Howard, completely not competition, nor people's intention.
How many options do people have?
Gary, Derby,
same old chinless etonians.
watson, taunton, somerset
Best team in 50 years?! Better than Heath and Lord Hailsham or Thatcher and Whitelaw or even Major and Lamont? All of the foregoing having substantially more life experience than the privileged Messrs Osborne and Cameron.
Romans to Italians in three quick generations.
Edward Merritt, London,
If this is the best then heaven help us!
peter, worthing,
It makes no difference who forms the next government. We are part of, and at the mercy of, the global economy. Countries with widely different idealogies and economic polices are suffering the same problems. It is naive to think we can somehow exempt ourselves from the inevitable fall-out.
Andrew Lee, Storrington, UK
The Tories will win the next election just because they are not Labour, whose governance over the last decade has worked so badly that three-quarters of the electorate want to throw them out. Cameron could field a shadow cabinet of sheep dyed blue and still expect a commanding victory.
Diogenes, Sinope,
Rees-Mogg states that conservative govts always come back into power on the back of economic difficulties. My dear old friend, all govts come into power on the back of economic difficulties.
J.Galloway, leatherhead,
As a decadent people the British have the government they deserve. Changing the jockey won't change the horse. On the other hand who but a fool would vote for a man (Brown) who sold off the nations gold because he thought paper money was worth so much more.
Stephen , Hobart , Australia
labour are incompetent, greedy and unloved, but let's not get carried away. the tories are a bunch of vacuous buffoons in suits. their best bet is to shut up. they should have won the last election. to be honest, it's not really much a choice for the thoughtful voter. less government would be nice.
jem, london, uk
...and don't forget what happened to Britain between 1951 and 1964: the 'orderly management of decline.' Decline became a rout under Wilson and Heath, but the seeds were sown earlier
In the end you need the right policies however unpopular, and the character to push them through.
Ben, London, England
Brown has wasted, and is wasting, enormous sums of money on PFI projects. Even as the economy tanks, we will still have to pay these huge bills for decades to come.
Ian, sheffield, uk
Yes - one for one they appear more competent than the front bench opposite. That would not be difficult.
But you don't need an another unelected quango to regulate and control public spending - just good strong determined and accountable government
Simon Berry, York, England
I wouldn't vote for that braying rabble in a million years. The idea they're better than Mrs Thatcher's 1983 front bench is just laughable. The media can waffle on as much they want trying to convince us the Tories are 'electable' - but they told us that about Labour at the last election.
Tony Smith, Rochester, UK
Cameron's team better than Thatcher & Company? She was a phenomenon! She was the first to see the possibilities in Gorbachev. Predating Reagan, she began the Conservative wave that swept the globe. She put the spine in Bush 41 when Saddam invaded Kuwait. We'll not see her like again any time soon.
peter, miami, usa
It's not hard, right now I'd happily vote for the Chuckle Brothers as a viable alternative to Brown and Darling. The Tories are well aware of the national mood and are hedging their bets that no-one will bother to scrutinize policy that closely.
The Tories haven't guaranteed my vote just yet.
Paul, London,
I wouldn't trust the Tories to fly a kite never mind a complex economy. The Tory "we're just like you" mask has well and truly slipped recently. These people simply don't live in the same world as us and I have a deepeningly sick feeling I've heard it all before. Osborne turns my stomach.
John, Aberdeen, UK
How to curb the bonus culture and absurd salaries? Why, bring back the Healy super tax. Over, say, £100.000 you pay 90% income tax.
Over £200.000 income tax is 99%. Under £15.000 no tax. And more money and less tax to the retired because I am one. I would love to pay 90% tax or even 99%.
Peter Kaldor, Woking, U.K.
The Tory team may or may not be the best in 50 years. Any Tory team would be better than this lot. The cycle of tax, spend and waste is endemic to Labour, and this latest shower have merely confirmed most peoples expectations. Some things in life are inevitable, like dogs barking and babies crying.
Alan Gooch, Honiton, UK
One thing that has definitely improved under Labour is education. Having moved our children from state schooling to private in the mid-90s, then moved one back to state schooling for A-levels, we find the state schools offering far far more than private: resources, quality of teachers, etc.
Charan Muzaya, London, UK
The Tory party has historicaly supported the wealthy, so what we can expect of a Tory administration is business as usual for the bankers i.e. the very people that have got us into the credit crisis.
J Jones, london,
Good Lord! Are Labour Party employees simply inventing the ranting comments on this article?
GS, London, UK
If this is the best the tories can provide then God help us. What we need is a national government that is in nobody's pocket with the best from all parties involved. eg Vince Cable, for chancellor with Ken clarke for PM, Between them they could sort out this mess.
Johnty, wgc, uk
This recession was predicted in 2004 as its a cyclical downturn. The worst is yet to come, but hopefully we will be out of it by 2012. But the recovery after 2012 will take a good 10 years. Just in time for Labour to get back in and mess it up again.
Callum, Liverpool, UK
Talented? This bunch of Tories? Ha ha Mr Rees-Mogg. We had 18 years of Tory free market mantras, so regretably copied by a Labour government too cowardly to change anything.
And Cameron wants more of the same. With George Osborbe as Chancellor! At least you show that irony isn't dead...
Rob, London, UK
After listening to David Cameron and how labour should have fixed to roof while the sun was shining, a reference to the economy then my great fear is that after a Tory spell in government we would be left with no house, never mind roof.
Dave boy has said he will raise taxes, fantastic idea.
william thomson, lincoln, uk
I disagree in one respect. He says that the 1950's team "had one disadvantage ... they were ... older". I take the opposite view. The current team have insufficient experience of life to be as good. It should also be mandatory to have worked outside politics for at least 10 years before being an MP.
Jeremy, Scunthorpe, UK
Aren't two or three of this man's offspring standing as Tory candidates? Very objective commentary, i'm sure
Henry, london, UK
It's not about age: we need a conservative British government, not a communist scottish one that has looted the economy and constructed a regulatory system that has encouraged stupid decisions and smashed families.
Jamal Akhbar, Edinburgh,
An industrial machine not securely anchored to the floor will progresively shake itself to destruction and any one standing near it.This parliament is no longer bolted to the constitution of this country..The Cp is ;ino diferent as it is.Seeing that it serves not the crown nor represents the people.
G Blezard, London, uk
"When a new Conservative administration comes to office it is usually at a time of economic trouble" - that is usually because the other parties ruin it when they are in power, and people are more likely to vote for recklessness when times are good then when times are bad.
James E. Petts, Burnham, England
Rees Mogg says the opposite to the truth hoping it will come true. His 2 offspring conservative candidates are symptomatic of the talentless non entities with no experience who are in the current political class. Unlike him the public see low age and experience as a disadvantage. We need more Cables
David Cartright, Birmingham,
As a tax payer I want to be satisfied that the right people are at the helm of this country. Hmmm!! 5 are lawyers, 1 a teacher, 1 a Marxist Union Official and the rest have done nothing except Poltics. This motley crew of academics doesnt inspire much confidence!
Callum, Liverpool, UK
This Tory opposition is the most certain in 50 years to win an upcoming election. However, this is entirely unrelated to the ability of the party to govern. They have yet to prove themselves, even by proposing convincing policy arguments. We're in a multi party democracy, but with no choices....
Martin, Bristol, UK
Having presided over and encouraged the housing and debt boom Brown's claim to be the most experienced man to pull us out of the credit crunch is tantamount to saying that the fox in the hen house is best placed to save the remaining chickens. What a pathetic argument.
rob, Ipswich,
The best team,eh? Of the shadow cabinet, two were in PR, 2 in the media, 4 in law, 5 consultants(?) and 5 have never done anything except politics. Just the sort of c.v's I would want from candidates to to run my £535 billion business.
john problem, Hackney Wick, UK
William Rees -Mogg praises the Tories,what a surprise, after all, he is a died in the wool Labour supporter!
After thinking the Tories had joined the real world ,we are back to a bunch of Old Etonians ,who are the epitome of arrogant the old Tory 'we are the only ones who should govern' attitude
chris dee, london,
The debt numbers look big but a modest tax increase will sort out the problems over a few years. My guess is that 10p on income tax and a rise to 20 per cent for VAT will sort out the excess debt over a decade... No problem with that is there? Only the salaried lower middle class pays taxes anyway.
Colin, Malaga, Spain
It's not the team but the arrogant , smug leader that is the Tories biggest problem. I don't think Cameron has the gravitas to be PM
Keith Price, Luton, UK
Better: the best Tory team that hedge fund money can buy
Carlos Kleiber, London,
William Rees-Mogg's son and daughter are both Parliamentary candidates for the Tories in the next election. I do not necessarily disagree with a lot of what he says, and I enjoy reading his well written prose. However, I think that his articles about british politics should come with a caveat.
Christopher Kerr, London,
Being young and largely unproven doesn't mean that Cameron's team is the best for fifty years. Hague is a good bet, but became leader far too early. The rest are young, but strangely a throwback to a different age, when a row of Old Etonians was acceptable for a front bench. Boris Johnson? Oh no.
David Gardiner, Wolverhampton,
You never know how good a team is until they've played their first match. Most EU govts are running up horrendous debts at present which means a genuine recovery is at least 3 years away - and some govts will be replaced in the interim. June 9/09 will be the nemesis of at least 2: Greece's & UK's.
Dr David Green, Athens, Greece
We are the BIGGEST and the BRIGHTEST and the BEST.
Intellectually indomitable and illustrious and implacable and indefatigable and formidable and victorious.Oh no, Sir, not triumphalism. Aircraft Carriers!
Our views on deck hockey against that other lot.
Gut Liam, Hertford, England
I ALSO recall Mr Rees Mogg asserting, some 7 1/2 years ago, that George Bush would restore dignity to the Office of the President, and to the White House.....
David, Ljubljana,
More like the most over-rated team in 50 years. Can anyone name a single achivement of any of them? Have they ever run anything or done anything?
Tim, Aldershot, uk
ln 10 years Brown destroyed the British pension system
I Mack, Perth,
Surely it Brown only 1 year to ruin the Clarke inheritance - he started from day one with his cack-handed regulatory system, the vindictive raid on the denationalised companies, squandering the money, and cooking the books generally.
Michael Corby, London, Uk
Most of the Conservatives of 1951 had lived through 2 World Wars, all had lived through the Depression.
The 40 somethings of today have lived the whole of their lives in a world of plenty & far removed from war.
No comparison!
Now, if Boris was leader .................
Patricia Thornton, Veliko Tarnovo,
If Labour is indeed "home and dry" then we are not merely stuffed, we are well and truly stuffed.
Voting in another Labout government would be national economic suicide.
Martin, Newmarket, Suffolk
In the last three elections William Ress Mogg predicted a Tory victory. Now he has just assigned the kiss of death again. Cambell, Haig and Osborne what experience? We all remember Haig telling us what a wonderful man Jeffrey Archer was.
Alan Lewis, Bangkok, Thailand
If this is the best Tory team for fifty years, Labour should be home and dry!
sk, East Sussex, England
Comparing Michael Gove to Churchill, Butler, Eden or MacMillan is laughable. The most talanted people in the tories at the moment are Willetts and Duncan. George Osborne may well amount to something great one day but he has a lot to learn still.
Paul, Sheffield, UK
Yes but who is benefiting from undermining the banking system, some people who support the conservative party and have bankrolled some of it. A week ago DC said we must not restrict the markets. Now he's blaming GB for the fallout. My advice dont throw stones if you live in a glass house.
James , Brighton, England
Brown's irresponsible government will leave the UK paying for his debt for years to come .As well as the annual debt, he has hidden another £100 billion under PFI to keep it off the balance sheet. He then says his experience is what is required. It isn't ,he is totally responsible for this mess.
john, Bristol,