William Rees-Mogg
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Those of us who were alive at the time, or who have seen the film, have vivid memories of the sinking of HMS Hood in 1941, and of the pursuit and subsequent sinking of the German battleship Bismarck. Ten years earlier the Hood had been involved in another episode of naval history, which had a significant influence on British economic history.
On September 19, 1931, Captain J.F.C. Patterson, the acting Senior Officer, Atlantic Fleet, sent a signal to the Admiralty: “For two days, the ships at Invergordon of the Atlantic Fleet were in a state of open mutiny... large numbers of men were massed on the forecastles of Hood, Rodney and Dorsetshire. Men on the forecastle of Hood had refused to allow any work to be done to commence on unmooring, and it became evident that neither Hood nor Rodney could go to sea.”
Patterson had some sympathy with the underlying grievance. He informed the Admiralty: “The use of force was in my opinion quite out of the question,” and that “with regard to the causes of the outbreak, there is no doubt that first and foremost was the disproportionate reduction (in pay) of the lower ratings who entered before 1925”.
On the same day that Patterson sent his report of the Invergordon mutiny, a small conference was held at 10 Downing Street; the Prime Minister, Ramsay MacDonald, reported that he had had a discussion with Stanley Baldwin, the leader of the Conservative Party, and Sir Herbert Samuel, the leader of the Coalition Liberals.
The result had been an agreement that it was essential to get legislation that would release the Bank of England from the obligation to pay out gold. E.R. Peacock, a director of the Bank of England, commented: “A sudden blizzard has struck the world. People have got anxious about their bank, that is to say, Great Britain, and they are gravely anxious about themselves.” The Downing Street meeting agreed to take Britain out of the gold standard.
The sailors at Invergordon were loyal and patriotic - many were to die for their country in the Second World War. But they were not prepared to have their pay docked - unfairly as they thought - to defend the convertibility into gold. In this, they were good Keynesians. In September 1931 the gold pound lost the confidence of British sailors, Cambridge economists and French bankers. That combination was irresistible.
September 19, 1931, was approximately the second anniversary of the start of the Great Depression in 1929. The mutiny and the decision to leave the gold standard proved to be the recovery point for Great Britain. From that point on, recovery became possible.
Two lessons were taught by Invergordon and the withdrawal from the gold commitment: governments should not try to balance the budget by cutting the pay of essential public servants; and they should not defend at all costs an overvalued fixed exchange rate. Britain does not now have a fixed exchange rate, although some people still want to join the euro. If we were in the euro, we would probably be arguing about when to leave.
The year 2009 can be paired with 1931. Both are the second year after the start of a big recession: 1931 was, beyond question, a year of depression. In the US the Federal Reserve Board kept statistics of the profits of 500 companies. In 1929 the index had been 998; in 1930 it had fallen to 760; in 1931 it was 370, and went as low as 267 in the final quarter.
Between 1929 and 1931 US employment fell by a third. If we based a forecast for 2009 on 1931 we would produce ghastly figures. The American recovery really began only in March 1933, after the inauguration of President Roosevelt. Britain had a lighter and shorter recession.
However, we can follow, and perhaps guard against, the acceleration of “the vicious spiral” of depression in 1931 itself. The turning of the screw actually began in June 1930, with the disastrous Hawley-Smoot tariff. Intended to protect US industry from excessive imports, it aroused international resentment and retaliation against US exports. If British experience offers the first two lessons, this would be the third: do not raise tariffs in a recession.
In May 1931, the Credit Anstalt, the leading bank in Austria, became insolvent and had to close. As the American economist, Irving Fisher, observed: “It was a great bank, and its collapse embarrassed both Germany and England.” Lesson four: do not allow systemic banks to fail. This was not applied to Lehmann Brothers, which may be regarded as the Credit Anstalt of the Wall Street panic of 2008. In June 1931 after runs on other Austrian banks, its Government belatedly guaranteed the liabilities of the Credit Anstalt.
In July 1931, the Bank of England rescued the German Reichsbank, which had been embarrassed by the failure of the Credit Anstalt. The French withdrew gold from Germany and the Bank of England for having taken the risk of supporting Germany. Lesson five: do not depend on central bankers in a panic.
On September 21 Britain left the gold standard, followed by 23 other nations. The US and France maintained gold convertibility.
In October 1931 President Hoover proposed the creation of the Home Mortgage Corporation, the ancestor of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage banks that did not become insolvent until 77 years later.
In December Hoover announced his relief programme. Fisher commented: “To meet the rapidly developing emergency, each step was too small and by the time it was enacted into law, it was too late.”
Lesson six: in a depression, too much and too early is safer than too little and too late.
William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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Where are the plates bearing the heads of those responsible for the coming depression and those thieves who stole our money?
It. seems that no one is responsible or accountable.
hortense vaughan, sydney,
I see that nobody on either side of the Atlantic really knows what to do. It's all a guessing game right now. Obama's plan of another trillion here or there will certainly lead to inflation - much more money circulating for essentially the same goods.
All in with pair of 5's!
Charles, Los Angeles, USA
There is but one vital lesson to be learned in the present instance.
The USA has elected a Marxist president. This is the most radical change in world politics and finance since WWII, dwarfing, for example, the fall of the Soviet Union.
You wanted Obama, you got him, with all his baggage.
Iago, Houston, USA
The crisis is a lack of confidence created by government intervention with the mortgage industry, indirectly backing unworthy loans and creating false equity or fiat money. The more government "tinkers" with free markets the closer we move toward socialism - which may sadly be pre-planned.
Loch, San Luis Obispo, USA
W.R-M has evidently talked to Kaletsky.
As others have said, this recession is not a carbon copy of 1931. Conditions are light-years different.
Some slovenly academics mis-specify, and excuse Brown happily spewing new debt in all directions in his quest for re-election.
We will all pay - soon.
Pam Granger, Cranbrook, UK
Nobody seems to have noticed the UK has no economy left but oil and clotted cream. When the oil price is high the pound is strong and financial services do well because people want pounds. When the oil price is low the pound is weak and we sell a few clotted cream afternoon teas to the Japanese.
Michael, London, UK
The UK has put our money from the gold sale in Euro bonds, cash them in now and there currency will tumble, the best way this government could do is put the money in to manufacturing in the UK and stop china sending there goods here.
Joe, Liverpool, England
It would be iniquitous if the public sector was shielded from all the problems suffered by the private sector, who after all provide the means by which it exists.
Eddy, Bury St.Edmunds,
Justin: the analogy is simple. Here in the UK we are saddled with a largely useless state bureaucracy from the EU downwards which adds very little value.
Next question -- if "big oil" can consolidate, why can't "big motors"? Bring on "GeneralFord" or "ChryslerGeneral" if you must make more cars.
Scott Pollard, Wincanton,
The banks would better if they were smaller - so they could fail - government action to move from 4 large banks to 10-15 smaller banks would help.
Speed up house price/rent falls. Realistic prices are different from deflation.
William, how about an article EFTA vs EU? less regulations, more jobs?
Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK
Since Labour have presided over massive increases in public sector pay and the public sector is now on average better paid than the private sector, where wages are further being cut, it is foolish to argue against cutting public sector pay. It was always the obvious first step.
Penelope Bower, London, UK
Lehman was an investment bank and arose out of the feckless credit expansion.
The Cred Anst analogy may be Fortis, or has yet to occur.
The lack of gold backing is going to cause hyperinflation in a major currency.
New problems (and lessons) will arise that cannot be foreseen.
J.G.Flinn, Béalencourt , France
Well, maybe if you make the exact opposite mistake to the one you made before, things will come out even worse. For example, if the pound loses substantial value because Gordon Brown prints them to save the economy, it might become difficult for the UK to buy oil and food supplies from overseas.
Jonathan, NYC, USA
I was taught that it is ridiculous to generalise from one instance of something.
Marek, London,
Only mutuals and the government should be able to finance private mortgages. The involvement of banks over the last 30 years and the demutualisation of building societies removed the classic lending controls. The Halifax used to be the bulwark of building societies - it became the basket case.
Tony Gee, London,
Perhaps the first lesson should be amended. Perhaps the ratings might have accepted the same percentage reduction in pay as the officers.
G. Pasley, Bodden Town,
"Learn from the bees" Scott? If honey was the sole raison d'etre of humanity then you might have a valid point. Otherwise why not read a little on economics and then come up with a more suitable analogy?
Justin, Dammam, KSA
No two recessions or recoveries are the same since the causes are different. The seeds of this were the introduction of unsecured personal loans and credit cards; B/Societies becoming "Banks" - borrowing short and overlending long to create a house price bubble and global overproduction.
David Cotterell, Cheltenham, UK
I have yet to hear a coherent argument against allowing dying business models to fail quickly and move on. It appears that we are trying to protect the past at the expense of the future. Can we not just drop Jag, etc & help the staff move forward?
Steve, Derby, UK
Fannie Mae was an attempt to cure the Great Depression and is arguably a spark for the greater one now developing. Fixed exchange rates cannot be defended following decades of incompetent governance.
Restore stable monetary values against finite items such as land.
That alone can offer security.
Martin Cole, Angouleme, France
First -- start talking things UP rather than promoting gloom. Next, be thankful we're not in the Euro yet, though no doubt the buffoons who sold most of our gold and frittered away our oil revenues are looking at just that. Finally -- learn from the bees: when it gets tough, kick the drones out
Scott Pollard, Wincanton,
Tariffs would likely be less damaging to Britain than other countries such as Germany and Japan, because we import they export.
Neil Murphy, CROMER,