HAS KATRINA made Hillary Clinton the next President of the United States? No, because her campaign was already rolling ahead in the month before the hurricane. But Katrina, and the slow response, may have been the final blow to Republican prospects for the election of 2008.

First of all Hillary will have to win the Democratic nomination. Here one can only quote from the jingoist song: “She’s got the ships, she’s got the men, she’s got the money, too.” Hillary has the Clinton organisation behind her — the only powerful presidential machine the Democrats have created since Ted Kennedy folded his tent in 1982. As the Bush family has shown, it takes a presidential machine to win presidential elections. That is why political dynasties become so powerful in the United States.

Senator Clinton’s polling figures for the primaries look fine. Before the Katrina disaster, which both she and her husband have handled with their usual skill, she had an 81 per cent approval rating among Democrats. By comparison, the leading Republican candidate for the 2008 nomination, Senator John McCain, had only a 56 per cent approval rating in his party.

Hillary is also the star fundraiser for the Democrats, not only for herself, but for fellow members of her party. Money can be decisive, both in the presidential primaries and in the presidential campaign itself. It helps that she is a senator for New York; it helps even more that she has the Clinton machine.

Even in early August the omens were looking good for her. Hillary Clinton has always been a strong candidate, a highly professional politician, popular with women and now a successful senator. But she has been regarded as too sharp-edged and divisive, and has had personal enemies and critics dating back to the Arkansas days of the 1980s. The Clinton governorship in Arkansas has been investigated and reinvestigated, and it was not too pretty a sight, but that is now a quarter-century ago.

The Clinton presidency had to face her husband’s impeachment but it had his successes as well; that is more than four years ago. Hillary has been moving towards the moderate centre of American politics and her critics have been moving towards her. She inevitably suffered from the problems of Bill Clinton’s reputation, and a professional job has been done of “detoxifying” Mr Clinton’s image.

Dick Morris, who was Bill Clinton’s adviser in the successful 1996 re-election campaign, writes in the New York Post that “Bill Clinton’s constant appearances with President Bush Senior and his highly visible efforts for the tsunami victims are helping rehabilitate his wife’s image”.

The Bush family recognise the Clintons as the only other American dynasty in this century. They use Bill Clinton when bipartisanship helps them, and he has used them to rehabilitate his image, which has also improved that of his wife.

This may confirm the reports that the Bushes are not planning on having a family candidate for the next presidential election. They have recognised that it would look too dynastic for Jeb Bush, the Governor of Florida, to run as his brother’s successor. Jeb helped to fix the Florida recount in 2000. In effect, the Bush family are almost acquiescing in the return of the Clintons, though they will, of course, support the Republican nominee at the time.

They may be right to accept the reality. Apart from Senator McCain, who is an attractive candidate to independents, the Republicans do not have an obvious candidate for 2008, just as the Democrats do not have a convincing alternative to Hillary.

Condoleezza Rice is a nice idea for the Republicans, rather than a serious contender. After that, most Republican candidates have minimal name recognition, such as Bill Frist, the Senate Majority Leader, Senator George Allen of Virginia, or Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. You cannot beat somebody with nobody.

The long-term record is equally depressing for the Republicans. There is a constitutional limit of two terms for the President himself, but American voters seem to apply that to the parties as well. Since 1952 there have been five occasions on which one party or the other has sought a third term in the White House; four times the incumbent party was defeated. Even before Katrina the odds were 4-1 on a Democratic victory in 2008. Voters get bored with the same party.

The polls have also shown a steady decline in approval for President Bush’s most contentious policy, the occupation of Iraq. All wars have a shelf life of public support; they become less popular as time goes by. That was true of Vietnam and it is true of Iraq; war fatigue has already set in.

The issues in Iraq remain extremely important, whether one considers the stability of the Middle East, democracy in Iraq, world oil supplies or the War on Terror. The Americans cannot just get out, but voters do not like bodybags.

On Saturday President Bush tried to rally the American people. He appealed to the memory of 9/11, but that did not help him. The Americans do indeed regard 9/11 as New York’s finest hour. No American regards the New Orleans disaster, with its first week of indecision, inaction and anarchy, as anyone’s finest hour, least of all the President’s. He failed to take effective federal action in that dreadful first week. His approval ratings have collapsed to the lowest level of his presidency.

Inevitably so.

Katrina did not create the trend, but it has crystallised in people’s minds the perceived weaknesses of this Administration; it is seen as uncaring, out of date and out of touch. The President must fight back or the mid-term congressional elections will be a disaster; he will lose his grip on power while he is still in office. Beyond that is the prospect of Hillary for 2008, perhaps becoming a two-term President. That would take the United States through to 2016. The storm warning is Hurricane Hillary.

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