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Church attendance in Britain is declining so fast that the number of regular churchgoers will be fewer than those attending mosques within a generation, research published today suggests.
The fall - from the four million people who attend church at least once a month today - means that the Church of England, Catholicism and other denominations will become financially unviable. A lack of funds from the collection plate to support the Christian infrastructure, including church upkeep and ministers’ pay and pensions, will force church closures as ageing congregations die.
In contrast, the number of actively religious Muslims will have increased from about one million today to 1.96 million in 2035.
According to Religious Trends, a comprehensive statistical analysis of religious practice in Britain, published by Christian Research, even Hindus will come close to outnumbering churchgoers within a generation. The forecast to 2050 shows churchgoing in Britain declining to 899,000 while the active Hindu population, now at nearly 400,000, will have more than doubled to 855,000. By 2050 there will be 2,660,000 active Muslims in Britain - nearly three times the number of Sunday churchgoers.
The research is based on analysis of membership and attendance of all the religious bodies in Britain, including a church census in 2005.
Coming just months after the Archbishop of Canterbury suggested that the introduction of aspects of sharia into British law was unavoidable, the report is likely to fuel calls for the disestablishment of the Church of England.
Martin Salter, the Labour MP for Reading West and a member of Reading inter-faith group, said: “I think all faiths could be treated equally under our constitution. These figures demonstrate the absurdity of favouring one brand of Christianity over other parts of the Christian faith and the many other religions that grace our shores.”
Hazel Blears, the Communities Secretary with responsibility for community cohesion, said: “We will look at these findings very closely. Britain is a secular democracy with a strong Christian tradition but many faiths have a home in Britain.”
The report makes it clear that Christianity is becoming a minority religion. It also reflects the changing nature of religious practice worldwide and will further aid the stated aim of the Prince of Wales who, on his Coronation, hopes to become Defender of Faith rather than Defender of the Faith.
Only in the large, evangelical churches of the Baptist and independent denominations is there resistance to the trend, but many of these churches also show some decline. One small area of growth is in Northern Ireland, where the enthusiasm of Pentecostals and other independents has led to a slight increase in numbers of churches - a trend expected to continue to 2050. The three growing denominations are the Orthodox, Pentecostals and smaller denominations, all dependent to a degree on immigration.
The crisis is particularly acute for Methodists and Presbyterians, as many worshippers are aged over 65. The report predicts that these churches might well have merged with others by 2030. “The primary cause of the decrease in attendance is that people are simply dying off,” the report says.
By 2050 there will be just 3,600 churchgoing Methodists left in Britain, Christian Research predicts. Anglicans will be down to 87,800, Catholics to 101,700, Presbyterians to 4,400, Baptists to 123,000 and independents to 168,000.
The national breakdown shows similar declines across England, Wales and Scotland. Churchgoing across all denominations in England will fall from about 3 million today to about 700,000 in 2050. In Wales it will tumble from 200,000 to 42,000 and in Scotland, from 550,000 to 140,000. The figures take into account the recent boost to Catholicism from the number of Polish immigrants to Britain, particularly in Scotland.
The report predicts that by 2030, when Dr Rowan Williams’s successor as Archbishop of Cantebury will be approaching retirement, there could be just 350,000 people attending just 10,000 Anglican churches, with an average of 35 worshippers each. The next Archbishop after that could find his position “totally nonviable”, the report says, with just 180,000 worshippers in 6,000 churches by 2040.
David Voas, a professor of population studies at the Institute for Social Change at the University of Manchester, said: “The difficulty is in retaining the children who have churchgoing parents. So long as churchgoing is something that gets you laughed at, so long as there is a social stigma attached to being a churchgoing young person, it will be difficult to reverse the trend.” He said that young Muslims operated in a different environment. “Being religious is a way that you show you are different, that you are proud of your heritage. One of the ways young Muslims assert their identity is by being more observant than their parents.”
The Church of England disputed the forecasts last night. Lynda Barley, its head of research, said: “These statistics represent a partial picture of religious trends today. In recent years church life has significantly diversified so these traditional statistics are less and less meaningful in isolation.
“There are more than 1.7 million people worshipping in a Church of England church or cathedral each month, a figure that is 30 per cent higher [than the Sunday attendance figure used by Christian Research] and has remained stable since 2000. We have no reason to believe that this will drop significantly.”
— Hundreds of churches are protesting at soaring water bills, with some parishes facing increases of up to 1,300 per cent. Senior churchmen from the Church of England, Methodist and other churches are meeting officials from Ofwat, the industry regulator, to argue their case against the charges today.
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I am saddened that the vibrant faith in Jesus that was part of daily life during the 2nd World War has now been replaced by dead religion. As religious Churches fade away, a generation will rise who know Jesus personally and will take his love to the streets: a love that never fails!
Drew Cook, Arroyo Grande, CA, USA
I would just like to say as a man who has accepted the Lord Jesus Christ as his personal savior, I have visited England several times. The rich cultural and Christian history of the country is awesome. I love it when I visit. I pray daily and unceasingly for the UNited Kingdom. God Bless GB.
Drew, Danielsville, Ga., UNited States
It's marvellous that Britain is becomming a more secular and rational place, finally it seems that humanity is growing up and no longer needs to believe in the tooth fairy. This should give some hope to all the naysayers who thought we could never be rid of religion, not there yet, but someday soon.
Elliot, Cambridge, Britain
According IBISWord (industry researchers), while evangelical churches have long been on the public relations path, traditional faiths need do the same to stop their members defecting to a younger, more modern http://www1.ibisworld.com.au/pressrelease/pressrelease.aspx?prid=111
www.ibisworld.com
John Riley , Melbourne , Australia
As an American who worked and studied in England, I find this news both saddening and deplorable. But as non-traditional means of worship arise, so traditional ones will revive(as in the US); Christ's message is universal. Call it superstition all you want: anyone touched by Christ knows better.
Todd, Newport Beach, California, USA
We have now the 5th antipope, our Catholic Church has been taken over by the Freemasons who gave us this new Mass which is invalid as are the Sacrements. When Christ returns will he see any faithful Catholics.?
Annamcgrath, Ste.AnneDeBellevue, Canada
The Christian Church should reduce the bible to the frst 4 Gospels of the New Testament and the writings of St Paul. That is what Christianity is all about, the teaching os Jesus Christ and nothing else. Then it would not be losing its congregation
Paul Hutchinson, Calabsas, USA
Christianity is growing and many church congregations are increasing in number, our church in central Brighton has many more young families and we are always seeing new faces..The church is changing, ministry is evolving and more people than before are curious to know God who never changes.
Helen Rose, Brighton, England
Good. Now that we have the figures on the number of people who actually go to church, can the media please stop giving access to bishops' pronouncements on anything and everything? I don't tell you how to pray, stop telling me how to live. Keep your sermons for those who choose to hear them.
Sophie, Liverpool,
The church / mosque thing isn't new. About ten years ago at a Parish weekend I was helping to write a (tongue in cheek) sketch on the church of the future. One bit of the scenario was that our parish church would be renting a room in the local mosque.
Incidentally, said parish church is thriving.
Maggie, South London, uk
Religion is something different in human character. Very few are there who can explain you if asked what religion is. You can not force any individual to bow down to his religion frequently. It seems the current generation of children of Christianity are too humbug or shy to avoid Churches.
SATYANARAYAN MOHAPATRA, CUTTACK, INDIA
There's only one thing more tedious than a hardheaded theist: a mindless atheist.
Terry, London, UK
Nonsense. And to all of you who think that Christianity is in decline or outdated or no longer practised, you haven't got the point at all. Jesus was an individualist. The challenge is in finding a use for those beautiful structures. Adaption is needed along the lines of farmers/countryside managers
Mount J, dorset, gb
It would appear that the UK has forgotten it was once a Christian nation. It would also appear that the Lord, with His incredibly wry sense of humor, has sent the UK millions of
Muslims to remind them. And boy, are they going to get reminded...in spades.
Mark, Irvine, California, USA
Christianity in decline? Great news. Like global warming it's a complete myth. There is no God Almighty, never has been and never will be. Just another Establishment stealth tax on the unwary and gullible.
Take a walk in the fresh air each sunday - you'll get far more benefit from it.
H.G., Riga, Latvia
The problem is the Church of England and its pathetic moral equivalence. Where the CoE should be concentrating on the spiritual and trying to save souls, it has instead been taken over by a bunch of left wing social workers.
Bring back moral certainty!
Richard, Worcester, England
Very cleverly worded to use the word 'churchgoers'. Going to church has NOTHING to do with being a Christian. I am a convinced and commited follower of Christ, and that makes me a Christian - not going to church. Christianity needs to get out of church - perhaps that is what God's making happen!
Phil Hemsley, Rugby, UK
- Thousands of cofe youngsters gathering each summer for Soul Survivor festival
- Innovative city churches multiplying into new congregations
- Thousands being reached through Hope 08
- Documented biblical healings
These Are not signs of a church in decline, but adapting to changes in society!
P Dolby, London,
David Jones says it is time to "formally put religion into the private realm in the UK." Does he mean that people should keep their beliefs to themselves and never try to influence society? We should be thankful that people like William Wilberforce and Lord Shaftesbury didn't!
Geoff Chapman, Yeovil, UK
The church is dying?
So I'm just imagining the fact that my church has gone from 20 people to over 250 in 5 years?
Doesn't look like a decline to me.
Nick, Leicester,
And yet every church I've attended over the last 20 years has been bursting at the seams. My current church expanded three years ago and we still can't fit everybody in.
This report may apply to the church of England but I suspect it's only a partial picture of the true state Christianity in the UK
Kevin Raddy, Worthing, United Kingdom
I'm christian and proud of it, but I'm not proud of how the church likes to present itself in this country
if churches are going to die, let them - perhaps then those left will realise that christianity NEEDS to live in the 21st century.
after all, Jesus was one of the most radical people ever
Mike Blitz, Winchester, UK
Could it be that 'slaves obey your lawful masters' and 'the poor ye shall always have with you' just lack appeal with the general public? What a shock that a feudal institution designed to push peoples faces into the floor can not survive democracy..!
Cassandra, Yeovil,
"It teaches that few will take the small path to Life, and many the wide road to destruction. "
It didn't take long for the ad baculum to appear did it? Believe or be doomed to eternal torture.
Colin Walls, Hyde, UK
The UK is a secular democracy with a strong Christian tradition and some religious legacy in its legal framework. Unless we formally put religion into the private realm in the UK, non-Christian religions are going to have a lot of power over all of us soon and it'll be too late to change it.
David Jones, Loughborough, UK
Christianity is far from finished.
Mack, Christchurch, New Zealand
In this country, the weekend newspapers are full of "Things To Do" for Sunday. Not once is church ever mentioned. Marathon races are scheduled for Sunday, and streets are blocked to accomodate this, making it an obstacle course to get to church. There's too much other "stuff" going on on Sunday!
John F. McIlray, Scottsdale, Arizona, USA
@ Craig of Liverpool, is there anything more 'vitriolic' than hatred of difference (Muslims, Jews, women , the wrong kind of Christian) and anything more 'smug' than people swanning around thinking they're immortal? Just two more to add to your list of Christianity's achievements.
philip, cambridge,
Sanctioning Sunday Trading started the decline, this was followed by the clergy's revision of the services giving rise to langauge which lacked flow and hymns which seem to epitomise the worst aspect of pop lyrics.
The result, no emotional flow and one no longer left the service uplifted.
Dave, chorley, UK
Christianity will return to this country. I know of a Christian man who is carrying a revival anointing that can be heard as he is trying to make Christianity relevant to a new generation by praying for God to collapse the European Union.
Stephen Kingsdon, Tamworth, United Kingdom
As a Pagan, I'm pleasantly surprized that THIS time no one is blaming us!
The established churches of Europe have sunk into decline BECAUSE they were creatures of their respective states. In America, styles of worship change but churches are strong BECAUSE they only exist when self-supporting.
Christa Landon, Minneapolis, USA
What will happen will happen
Liz, swanage, Dorset
So NuLabours plan works - making Christianity wither away if we believe this their latest PR. The anti-Christians here seem to think that, when weve finally gone, their hatred will evaporate too. Sorry guys but you arent that nice! The next target for your hatreds will be each other. Enjoy.
alan143, London,
If Christianity is man made it will die out. If it's God's plan for mankind it won't.
Richard Morris, Coventry, UK
Fashions change. The current stigma attached to churchgoing will not forever remain. Cars will not forever destroy local communities. Divorce will not always be the norm. People won't always imagine that science has disproved relgion.
(Author, 12 Common Atheist Arguments (refuted) )
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
I am very glad to see that religion is generally in decline but I think it very unrealistic to extrapolate figures like these. Who knows what will happen in the next 40 years? Who is to say people of Muslim/Hindu background won't reject religion aswell? Let's make sure - teach more science....
Cheryl, Swindon, UK
When Muslims evolve, culturally, to a rational plane of existence, attendance will fall off at mosques as well. Belief in an afterlife may be comforting to many, but is all the rest of it really necessary? Don't murder, steal or perjure yourself; OK, got it covered! Leave the rest to science.
Geoffrey Tudor, Sequim, WA, USA
It's about time we pry the dying hands of the Anglican church from our government.
Religion has no place in goverment in this day and age, nevermind one in which such a small proportion of the country are actually active members of.
Hannah, Manchester,
I quote from an executive of DaimlerChrysler speaking in 2007: "It was actually forecast in 1873 that if the volume of horse-drawn traffic continued to rise England would be covered by a yard of horse manure by 1961." Extrapolating present trends is an extremely dangerous exercise.
Robert Nowell, Barnet,
I had a humanist friend who said that the Bible was all myths and fables. He was dying with cancer and shortly before his death he asked me to conduct his funeral and to warn everyone that it was not myths and fables but reality. I'm glad I ama man of faith!
Ron, Prestatyn, North Wales
The Church ( Established)has been in denial for years and refuses to see the Truth.
The answer is to make the Established Anglican Church clergy accountable and be WORTHY of its role as the Established Church...which IMHO it's not
John, Durham, UK
I don't go to church any more as I don't have a church to go to. All I have is a vicar who zooms in, performs a service then zooms off again. Otherwise he's never seen.
What I used to have was a church where I knew the vicar, he knew me and he spent his time caring for the souls in his community.
Mike Poulsen, Reading, Berkshire
Should Christians be worried about separation of church and state? The church seems to do better when persecuted, e.g. China, than when it is regarded as an earthly institution. But would there still be any independent voices in parliament who put morals before their party and political correctness?
Kevin B, Oxon, UK
"....when the Son of Man comes, will He find faith on the earth?" (Luke 18 v.8).
What is happening is is as the Bible predicts, but those who think that this marks the end of the Christian faith have got it wrong. Jesus is coming again -- soon!
Diana, Providenciales,
Alex says 3 million people's lives have new meaning. But he is mistaken.. That's 3 million people whose lives have lost their meaning. Sad. I'm an American & devout Anglican and attend a growing and thriving church in Texas. Our message, like our faith is strong and it draws people in.
Carol, Aubrey, TX, USA
The research makes no sense. If London Diocese alone carries on growing at the rate it has done since 1995, there will be over 100,000 Anglicans in just that 1 Diocese in 2050, let alone the other 42 CofE regions.
I wonder if rigour has been sacrificed in favour of a good headline.
David Keen, Yeovil, UK
It's funny that the professinal atheists with their vitriolic and smug comments are (I imagine, although nothing would surprise me) aren't so dismissive of the achievements in art, politics, literature, muic and culture generally, which are due to Christianity.
Craig , Liverpool, UK
Sadly you make no reference to the new generation of growing community churches, represented by organisations like New Frontier or Pioneer. You also fail to refer to the huge success of initiatives like Alpha in bringing many new people into the Church. l
Mark Coccker, Banfora, Burkina Faso
This comes as no surprise to me.
Christianity has spread suffering, propaganda and corruption everywhere it's been. Take voodoo dolls: taken from euro witchcraft
As science has proven them wrong and the church holds no power to silence the non-believers anymore, so fewer people follow this twaddle!
Tom, lancs,
seperate church and state now.
Mark, HH, England
England is 'still' a Christian country !
What we don't see here is the number of Muslims 'leaving' Islam, for fear & obvious reasons there are few statistics on this.
Many of them in the west have seen how archaic Islam is & how it interferes with a modern lifestyle.
Good for them may it continue !
maggie millington, brittany, france
The ignorant and illiterate do not realise that a good religion preached correctly sets a standard for people to live with each other in peace and harmony. Love they neigbour, obey the Ten Commandments, etc. Today's Britain proves that there is a need to return to the teachings in the Bible.
B J Deller, Marbella, Spain
Excellent news. It's quite cheered me up. Common sense prevailing over silly superstition at last. Even the rise of Islam is more to do with asserting cultural identity than anything else.
Believers, you are free to believe what you wish. But its time to stop your privileges and special status.
Paul Owen, Birmingham, uk
There are those who doubt these figures! As for those calling relgion a superstion, well, thats a point of view, nothing more.
Christianity does not defend itself, and it should. The trouble is the church in this country is always seen as the Anglican and it is so much more than that!
Steven, Buckhurst Hill,
@Micky of Battersea: Huh? Can you give an example of the "near-hysterical tone" because I couldn't see any. Even though I am a non-believer, I don't like the idea of Islam becoming any more powerful in this country.
Norman, Anstruther, UK
"Ironic that even the church cant go against evolution" bob london...
Brilliant comment! thanks for making me smile bob!!
Greg, Stoke,
Micky from Battersea wonders "why they are so afraid if there is nothing there?" I'd imagine it's because they dont want their time on earth ruined by gullible dolts who imagine theyve got somewhere to go after the die.
karl, oxford,
Whilst the modern day Christians continue to be weak and flacid, Church going will continue to fall. People want to follow strength, not weakness.
So buck up your ideas, and get tough, then the people will follow!
Pete, St Albans, England
The Sunderland Minster is seeing an increase in both attendance and membership. There seem to be many reasons for this, but one is that it has become a 'non-parochial place'-- it no longer has a parish. I *has to* reach out because it is no longer the default CoE church for anyone.
Harry Erwin, Sunderland, United Kingdom
Presumably the complete 2050 figures should read: Muslim 2.5 million, Christian 1 million, Hindu 1 million, athiest / agnostic 70 million. This article is the finest argument for secularism I have ever seen.
Steve, Altrincham,
Mrs Jones - sorry, but science is not "the new god".
God goes, and is replaced by the intellectual freedom from religious superstition. That's all.
alan, germany,
Dear Sir/Ma'am
Martin Salter MP articulates the multi-faith perspective typical of the decline your report describes.
The Lord Jesus Christ affirmed His own unique distinctiveness, with the Bible saying His is the only Name given by which we may be saved. Nothing "multi-faith" about that.
Barry Holroyd, Leeds, West Yorkshire, England
Well done Peter and Angelface for coming out with the usual egocentric arguments... proof indeed of why the old school is failing. Such self centredness is condemed in the Bible... I think you need to study what Jesus was teaching through his actions... not your pontifications!
Martin Sansone, London, UK
4 million churchgoers down to 900 thousand within a generation... that's over 3 million people whose lives will take on new meaning and who will be freed from the shackles of superstitious nonsense.
Worth celebrating, not mourning.
Alex McGregor, Plymouth, UK
It is interesting to see the near-hysterical tone of non-believers. One has to ask why they are so afraid if there is nothing there?
Micky, Battersea,
As a regular church-goer & member of our PCC, I can certainly say that our church is often more empty than full with a predominantly older congregation, so these figures seem accurate in our case. I believe the church now does not know how to market itself to a changed society & has lost contact.
Kieran, Broadway, England
Any institution that promotes discrimination (women, gays etc) is rightly going to struggle in 21st cebtrury Britain. If If the church cannot be relavent to peoples lives (was it about anything other than power?) it will die out. Ironic that even the church cant go against evolution
bob, london,
Better one man worships for genuine spiritual reasons than a thousand for social and cultural reasons.
PeterB, Lincoln,
This is no surprise to those who know their bible.
It teaches that few will take the small path to Life,
and many the wide road to destruction.
With Christianity you have to look at the quality, not the quantity.
Amen, to Belinda, London
angelface, Barcelona, Spain
Science, is the new god, with Richard Dawkins help we shall rid our selfs of these backwards way's.
We shall do teh tright thing becuse we want to do the right thing, not becuase we fear beeing burnt in hell for all the rest of time.
This can only be good thing.
Mr W Jones, Liverpool, England
What the statistics don't account for is the changing nature of church attendance. We have many young families in our church, but they often only come once or twice a month. Numbers aren't down for us so much as fequency. I think that's a trend across the board.
Vicar, St Albans,
Depends if it is Catholic or Anglican. My Catholic Church is always brimming with people and thrives.
Ian Payne, WALSALL,
Christianity has survived over 2000 years through good times and bad. God is with us always and He will provide. Belinda
Belinda, London,
The Government continues to favour religion, to give it special privileges. This is despite the evidence. So what if there are more Muslim worshippers than Christian soon. The numbers are still tiny. Get religion off our backs.
Barry Henderson, London, UK
Faith of any kind should be treated with contempt.
Atheists unite!
Dan, Manchester, Greater Manchester
Secular means that state and religion are separate.
Hazel Blears states that Britain is a secular state, yet the head of state, the queen, is also the head of the church of England.
So in what way is Britain a secular state?
Geoff, Arzier, Switzerland
Good.
The sooner every society rids itself from superstition the better.
F.S.Summers, NY/London,
Interesting side note: The title Defender of the Faith was conferred upon Henry VIII by the Pope, therefore the faith the monarch should be defending in Roman Catholicism. Although whether anyone other than Henry VIII can use the title is questionable depending on whether it is inheritable or not.
Stephen, St. Ives, England