The Pope is to be asked to consider four top English bishops as successor to the Archbishop of Westminster, Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O’Connor.

Cardinal Murphy-O’Connor, who at 76 is keen to retire, is to visit Rome for a meeting with the Pope next month at which the succession will be discussed. The four names understood to be on the list are the Archbishop of Birmingham, the Most Rev Vincent Nichols; the Archbishop of Cardiff, the Most Rev Peter Smith; the Bishop of Leeds, the Right Rev Arthur Roche; and the Bishop of Nottingham, the Right Rev Malcolm McMahon.

Although Rome would be happy for the Cardinal to stay on, he is understood to want to use his meeting to agree a departure date – probably in February or March. Archbishop Faustino Muñoz, the Papal Nuncio, has been taking soundings in England and Wales before drawing up the terna, or list of possible successors.

In spite of speculation, no terna has yet been submitted and no names rejected.

The Times understands that the arrival of theternain Rome is imminent and that it includes the names of four of the most popular bishops in England and Wales. However, the Pope is under no obligation to choose any of these to lead one of the Church’s most important archiepiscopal dioceses.

With the possible exception of Archbishop Nichols, none of those on the list is considered an outstanding candidate and they all have their detractors in Rome, and in particular in the English Church, where there is a strong lobby for a more conservative figure.

After savage criticism from some commentators of the English church leadership for its liberal mores, many want an Archbishop more in the mould of the Pope himself and who, once given the Cardinal’s hat, could be guaranteed to vote for a like-minded Pope when that succession comes up.

This raises the chances of a bishop now being talked of in Rome as having an outside chance: the Bishop of Paisley, the Right Rev Philip Tartaglia. Former Rector of the Scots College in Rome, Bishop Tartaglia, 57, is considered one of the brightest and most promising bishops on the conservative wing of the Church.

Dr John Haldane, Professor of Philosophy at the University of St Andrews and a consultor to the Pontifical Council for Culture, said: “This is a tremendously important appointment. The Church here and in Western Europe more generally is having to consider how it addresses its internal questions but also how it orientates itself towards a society that is clearly developing in directions that are yet further removed from Christianity.”

The Pope is not afraid of making an appointment from outside, but might balk at arousing the anger in Scotland that such a move would create. Scottish Catholics are anxious to hang on to Bishop Tartaglia so that he can succeed Archbishop Mario Conti of Glasgow, who is expected to retire soon.

As Ireland’s senior appointments show, promotion has been weighted in favour of international experience. Archbishop Diarmuid Martin of Dublin spent most of his career as a Vatican diplomat.

Rome is concerned at the lack of English and Welsh bishops with comparable experience. Nevertheless, it would be unusual to choose an Archbishop who was from neither England nor Wales.

It will be in the Pope’s mind that whoever takes over will be a member of the College of Cardinals that elects his successor, and that were a vacancy to be created in England,there is a shortage of conservative candidates in places such as Birmingham and Cardiff. He may therefore look to Scotland.

An insider said: “It is not a secret that Rome is not enthusiastic about the leadership of the English Catholic Church. Liberals with ability are still worthy of respect. I think the view in Rome is that they are not dealing with particularly able men.”

Englishmen in line for top job

Archbishop of Birmingham, the Most Rev Vincent Nichols, 63. Appointed a bishop in 1992, he served under Cardinal Basil Hume, presiding at his Requiem Mass in 1999. On good terms with the Pope and respected for lobbying on issues such as education and adoption, he is has been viewed with caution in the past.

Bishop of Leeds, the Right Rev Arthur Roche, 58. Former spiritual director of the English College in Rome, he is down to earth, with a solid background in pastoral and administrative work. He is considered by some to be a little young for the job.

The Archbishop of Cardiff, the Most Rev Peter Smith, 65. Has made a mark in Rome for his lobbying on euthanasia and human fertilisation. Hugely popular and clubbable, and enjoys socialising with a cigarette in hand, he is a “man of the people”, a characteristic that means he might lack the worldly ambition and eagerness to please that could take him to the top.

The Bishop of Nottingham, the Right Rev Malcolm McMahon, 59. Dominican monk whose support for the Latin Mass made him popular in England and Wales. But did not retract comments that there is no doctrinal reason why Roman Catholic priests should not marry, which might detract from support in Rome.