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It is now official: in their next presidential election, French voters will face a choice between Mr Sarkozy’s pugnacious style and — he promises — uncompromising reforms, and the sweeping, sentimental generalities of Ségolène Royal, the first woman to run for the Elysee Palace. It is, in essence, a choice between a long-delayed and sorely-needed dose of Gallic Thatcherism, and a romantic reaffirmation of the socialist consensus that has cosseted the French public sector for so long that even France’s long-suffering taxpayers can no longer afford it. Both options are revolutionary, but the latter is revolutionary only because Ms Royal is a woman. Indeed, she has said that a win for her campaign would be a “revolutionary gesture”, and 40 per cent of voters have apparently opined in polls that her principal strength is her gender.
Gender will be an issue for Mr Sarkozy, who was himself presidential at the party rally at which his candidacy was endorsed. The task of confronting Ms Royal’s record was assigned to Michèle Alliot-Marie, a fellow centre-right leader whose decision to back Mr Sarkozy rather than run for President herself may prove crucial to his chances. As the current Defence Minister, Ms Alliot-Marie had every right to be scathing about Ms Royal’s relative inexperience as a provincial MP and her hitherto successful tactic of avoiding all but the vaguest policy prescriptions. As a woman, she was also immune from accusations of macho condescension.
In any other developed country with stagnant growth and 9 per cent unemployment, Mr Sarkozy’s promises on tax and labour market reform, in alliance with the popular Ms Alliot-Marie, might seem unbeatable. Not yet in France. His undertaking to end the ruinously expensive index-linked pensions paid to most civil servants will strike a powerful chord with an overtaxed and over-regulated private sector. But Ms Royal has pandered to the national mood. The French may be ready for a female President, but many of them are not ready for the tearing up of cherished social guarantees. Her calls for a higher minimum wage and even tougher legal protection for workers on short contracts — and not just her dazzling looks — guarantee her solid support in the blue-collar suburbs where this election may be won.
Mr Sarkozy, meanwhile, is walking a political tightrope. He will need the votes of many on the right who backed Jean Marie Le Pen and the National Front in 2002, and he has already signalled that he favours a robust immigration policy. But he cannot afford to lose the entire immigrant vote in the process, and has floated positive discrimination schemes in a bid to broaden his appeal. They would have helped his immigrant father, and if they help him to become President, that would help France.
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