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Ethiopia’s apparent determination to play down accusations that Eritrea was responsible for kidnapping the five Britons missing in the border area is good news. It suggests that the Ethiopians are serious in making the safe return of the staff from the British Embassy a priority. The temptation for Addis Ababa is to use the incident in its propaganda war against Eritrea, ridiculing the denials from Asmara and insisting that the Eritreans are not to be trusted. If the unfortunate visitors to the harsh and remote area have indeed been seized by troops from an Eritrean training camp, such accusations would make their release extremely difficult.
British officials are wisely saying little about what steps are being taken to trace the hostages, despite rumours that negotiators have been sent to the region and that an SAS team has arrived in Djibouti. The Government of Meles Zenawi, supported in the past by Tony Blair, has recently lost its acclaim in the West, largely because of flawed elections and reports of repression of dissidents. It knows that rescuing the missing Europeans would do much to improve its image in London, as well as other Western capitals hence the refusal to confirm reports of Eritrean involvement in the abduction, which Asmara insisted were being spread to tarnish Eritrea’s image.
It may be that no one in the capital has a clear idea of what is happening in the poor and barren border region, 600 miles to the north east. Relations between the two countries have been tense since Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993, and the two countries fought a protracted and pointless war in 1998 over the demarcation of their 620-mile frontier. The ceasefire in 2000 resolved little, as Ethiopia refused to hand over a town awarded by mediators to Eritrea, and Asmara, in its frustration, then restricted the operations of the United Nations peacekeeping force monitoring the shaky truce. Against this tense backdrop, local tribesmen are conducting a low-level separatist rebellion to unite their kin in the Afar region that straddles Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti.
For Ethiopia, the kidnapping comes at a sensitive time. Its troops are still heavily engaged in Somalia, where they intervened in support of the weak transitional Government to force out the Islamic extremists who had taken control of most of the country. Predictably, their presence was resented by many Somalis who have bitter memories of earlier border wars. Predictably also, the Ethiopians, predominantly Christian, have found themselves denounced by Muslim neighbours as a regional bully and American stooge for the support that Washington has given them. The Meles Government, with only shaky control over remote tribal areas, does not want opportunist neighbours stirring fresh disaffection. It has withdrawn many of its troops from Mogadishu, but cannot afford to leave Somalia prey to further infiltration by al-Qaeda.
Eritrea, which has squandered opportunities and goodwill with growing repression by a president once praised in the West for realism, also needs to rehabilitate its image. This could be helped by cooperating in the search for the British hostages, swiftly releasing them, if indeed dissident troops seized them, or using local knowledge to help to track down whichever group is now holding the unfortunate tourists.
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