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Four bloody and difficult years after the invasion of Iraq, it is easy to despair over its future. Much of the reporting on television and radio, and in most newspapers, conveys the picture of a country ravaged by a vicious civil war, suffering ever more appalling terrorist outrages. Many believe that the war was a dreadful mistake from which Iraq will take decades to recover and that its people would happily prostrate themselves in front of Saddam Hussein again if the hangman’s noose had not intervened.
However, a survey of more than 5,000 Iraqis by Opinion Research Business, a reliable pollster, gives an utterly different view. It shows a country which is far more optimistic than anyone would have expected. By two to one, Iraqis say that life is better under the present system. There is, as might be expected, a clear Sunni-Shi’ite split. But even 29% of Sunnis, who had it pretty easy under Saddam, say things are better now. This result, when you take into account the fear, the bloodshed, the power cuts, the lack of water and the sheer struggle of everyday life, is remarkable. Nor was the poll conducted among people who have been shielded from the worst of the violence. One in four of those questioned has had a member of their family murdered in the conflict and a similar proportion have seen relatives displaced, many of them forced to flee abroad.
There is something else significant in the poll. Only a quarter of Iraqis think their country is in civil war. And they also believe, by two to one, that security will improve once American and British troops withdraw. This is a rejoinder to those who believe withdrawal would unleash an all-out struggle between Shi’ites and Sunnis. The current American troop surge appears to have been a considerable success in reducing levels of violence, again contrary to conventional wisdom. True, it may be temporary, but it is working.
In the long term, of course, the Iraqis will need to succeed on their own, but we should listen to them and let them decide their own fate.
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Here's the full polls. Dont know why they don't post them here:
http://www.opinion.co.uk/Documents/FINALTables.pdf
Brad, chicago, illinois
I am against the War in Iraq.
Vova, Shepetivka, Ukraine
Polling organization run by right wingers, what would you expect? Display the poll.
Don Matson, acton, MA, USA
The "surge" will work only until the insurgents learn how to fight it effectively. Chlorine gas car bombs may be the beginning of that new response. I suspect the "surge" wil be "Shock and Awe II" (perhaps the shock and awe strategy should have been named the "awe shucks" strategy in retrospect). The best reason for the U.S. to get out of Iraq is what the Iraqis themselves say: we are the cause of most of the problem. In any case, we will have to get out regardless at some point. As President Eisenhower said of the Korean War "Where is the end?"
Declan Murphy, Charlottesville, VA
That the locals in Iraq see a brighter future these days is only surprising to those fed on mainstream liberal media whose mission it is to discredit the president. Spewing hate for George Bush is fashionable; giving him any credit would be unconscionable. But as the truth emerges from Iraq, the mainstream media will begin to resemble Baghdad Bob; loudly proclaiming that which is obviously false. And while public opinion polls, mercurial and driven by media bias, disfavor our president today, history will give him high honor for doing the right thing in the face of self serving political cowardice.
Brian W. Loss, West Chicago, Illinois U.S.A.
It all sounds very hopeful - too good to be true, one might say. It certainly contradicts the judgements of many who have some basis of knowledge, and the perhaps 2 million refugees who have found like in Iraq intolerable. The poll data and sampling methods need to be made public if these findings are going to become credible.
Jim Hess, Irvine, CA, USA
Why then, if things are working out and Iraqis optimistic as the poll suggests, have over two million of the professional classes left the country? That is around ten percent of the prewar total population. Why is this exodus continuing with around ten thousand leaving every month? It would seem unlikely that these were monitored in this poll. Voting with your feet and leaving everything behind seems more indicative of Iraqi sentiment on the subject of optimism or pessimism than a poll such as this one.
John, Seattle , USA
It is unspeakable that the west should ravage a country so far from our shores, that we should cause chaos and anarchy in a once ordered and stable society. The principal sufferings of Iraqis prior to the invasion were a consequence of the economic sanctions imposed by the USA. Tragically, the suffering caused by the sanctions afflicted the weak; the poor and the elderly. The systematic annhilation of civilisation in Iraq can only lead to greater dangers within the country and further overspills abroad. How we condone and support our governments despite these atrocities is senseless. What does it take for us to realise that the guilt of terrorism and destruction has been instigated by the west. So much clarity is lost in the media. What is clear in Iraq is that the country has been raised to the ground, the people thrown into chaos and fear, and the future promises the threat of far worse. This is not Vietnam, but the USA have ruined the lives of at least two generations in IRQ
Ghazi Attia, England, UK
Sounds great, let's also see the raw data, please...so this doesn't get buried.
Gregory Contreras, Baltimore, USA