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The Chancellor spoke last week of his forthcoming financial statement being a “Budget for business”. It is to be hoped that this suggestion was more than mere alliteration. If he is shrewd, however, his last such outing while at the Treasury could be a “Budget for Brown” that also best suits Britain’s interests. For Gordon Brown has a rare opportunity on Wednesday. He is in a position to frame his legacy in one position and his inheritance in another.
The overall condition of the economy at present is undoubtedly satisfactory. Growth this year may well turn out to be the highest recorded in the G8 countries. This masks, though, concerns about the levels of taxation and spending that will matter even more as the competition faced ceases to be France and Germany and becomes China and India.
Compared with such countries, Britain is already a high-tax economy. It cannot afford to remain so. Electoral expediency may dissuade Mr Brown from pressing for tax cuts until later in this Parliament. But he could and should introduce small measures now that show that he accepts that such a shift in policy is necessary.
He could reinforce that stance by responding to legitimate criticism that is being directed at Revenue & Customs. That body is imposing serious compliance costs on companies and, through its vastly expanded array of “case officers”, is also targeting individual taxpayers. It has been unduly zealous in its functions and seems to be convinced that the businesses and people it targets are always suspect and should be made subject to the tax equivalent of electronic tagging.
He must also be realistic about public spending and the public services. What he may sincerely believe is that a one-off step-increase in expenditure acquires a life of its own. A huge lobby has sprung up that believes the solution to every problem is more money. The Chancellor was brave in imposing relatively modest public sector pay increases this year but the only way these pressures will ultimately be contained is if the State begins to shrink back to a more reasonable share of national income. Mr Brown should be disturbed that there are parts of the country where more than 60 per cent of those employed are paid from the public purse, and he must be determined to encourage more private enterprise in these regions. There should not be “two Britains”, a booming entrepreneurial London with the rest of the nation dependent on the capital’s taxpayers.
The Chancellor has a macroeconomic framework of which he can be proud, and a record for forecasting that has confounded his critics most of the time. This does not mean that middle-class electors, especially, will indulge indefinitely an inappropriate balance between tax and spending that is not delivering the requisite results. The time has come for the Government to focus on how money is spent rather than how much money is spent. Mr Brown has the chance this week to show that this will be his priority as Prime Minister.
If he does not, his tenure at the top will be brief. He has been fortunate that David Cameron prefers slogans to substance, as his vacuous call to “trust the professionals” in the public services has again shown this weekend. He should not expect Mr Cameron, or his impressive Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, to be lightweight all the way to polling day. The last Brown Budget must mark a clear switch in strategy.
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What's impressive about George Osborne exactly? Anyone who saw him on Sunday AM will have seen a lightweight politican who is way out of his depth,
Nick, Birmingham,