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“I love deadlines”, the author Douglas Adams once said, “I like the whooshing sound that they make as they fly by.” Ulster has become all too familiar with that noise as its peace process has been drawn out for more than a decade. It appears that it is destined to witness yet another deadline being missed or redefined. Ian Paisley and his Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) will not take their places today as full members of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive as ministers had hoped and legislation had instructed. The next 24 hours will instead see another round of intense political bargaining.
There is, however, a crucial difference on this occasion. It was never likely that Mr Paisley and his supporters would meekly acquiesce to the timetable set out by Peter Hain, the Northern Ireland Secretary. The issue of substance, though, was whether they were willing to name any credible date at which they would enter a power-sharing Cabinet alongside Sinn Fein. The DUP meeting held on Saturday seems to have affirmed that they would be ready to assume office in May but not at any moment sooner. The party's public explanation is that the Province requires more time to prepare for this event but, in truth, it is the DUP which needs to steady its nerves before devolution happens.
This may well be an irritation to Tony Blair and Mr Hain, but it is not an impossible inconvenience. What matters is whether they are convinced that Mr Paisley will stick to his pledge if he is permitted what is a relatively short delay in delivering. His record implies that he is a man of his word and that, if he is determined to assume the portfolio of First Minister, then all but his most extreme colleagues will back him. It would be churlish of ministers, or of Sinn Fein, not to allow him additional time.
For the “Big Man” of Ulster politics is a crucial player. If devolution were to be deferred until beyond the hour when he was fit and ready to serve, it might not occur thereafter. Should the struggle for the DUP succession begin before an Executive had been established, it would be a bruising encounter, with the contenders effectively entering a bidding war over who would impose the harshest conditions on Gerry Adams. This would be hugely damaging. The best situation would be if Mr Paisley could prove to the Unionist community that he could work with Sinn Fein leaders. Devolution would then be rendered secure before his eventual retirement.
In these circumstances, therefore, Mr Blair and Mr Hain should be creative. The current “devolution or dissolution” formula which is supposed to be implemented today must not be interpreted too literally. It should be possible to find a device, either through flexible interpretations of statutes as they stand or fresh emergency laws this week, to bring the Assembly back into life and allow the “Preparation for Government” committee to do the necessary detailed work in advance of an Executive coming together. It would also be wise to put the immensely contentious water charges about to be imposed in Ulster on hold until local politicians are in a position to consider an alternative.
If the DUP clearly starts stalling and hopes for a settlement fade far into the distance, it should no longer be indulged. For now, Mr Paisley should be trusted. Oscar Wilde insisted that “punctuality is the thief of time”. It falls to a rather different Irishman to demonstrate that there could be merit in his statement.
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