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Like the end of history, the end of the cold war turns out to have been little more than western wishful thinking. And like history, the cold war seems to be repeating itself. Once again chilly winds are blowing across the steppes and over the rest of the world; perestroika and glasnost are little more than memories. Russia today is beginning to resemble the old Soviet Union — repressive at home and aggressive abroad. President Putin is quick to stamp on opposition. One has only to think of Anna Politkovskaya, of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and of Alexander Litvinenko.
Yesterday it was the turn of Garry Kasparov, the former chess champion, to feel the grip of the new authoritarianism. He was arrested at an anti-government rally in Moscow. Mr Kasparov is a critic of Mr Putin and head of a group called the United Civil Front. Other activists and several journalists were also arrested in a massive police operation that is becoming standard in Russia.
Clearly not all Mr Putin’s critics are disinterested freedom fighters with pure democratic motives; equally clearly much of what they say is true. He inherited a country with an independent parliament, a free press, a healthy political opposition and fair elections. He has dismantled most of it. He now talks of “managed democracy” in which the Kremlin runs a pseudo-opposition.
Those who prefer to ignore Russia’s internal affairs, or think of them as transitional, cannot afford to ignore Mr Putin’s international stance. Although he may not actually beat the conference table with his shoe, as Nikita Khrushchev did at the United Nations in 1960, he is increasingly prepared to display aggression to world leaders. Ruthless to Chechyna and Ukraine, he makes no secret of his contempt for the European Union and Nato. He recently signed a deal to help Iran with its nuclear project despite international protests and he is using US missile defence plans as a justification for returning to the arms race. The bear is showing its claws again and the West had better take note.
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The best analysis that I have read (professors Rajan Menon & Alexander Motyl, Rutgers University) concluded that while Russias recovery is undeniable, it is far less substantial than prevailing wisdom avers. Using every measure available, military health, economic vitality, human capital and soft power assets, Russia is in trouble. Putins façade of toughness and skyrocketing energy prices, while providing Russian elites with money and confidence to talk tough are in the end, not sustainable. For popular appeal, Putin, having dismantled democracy, is now using the language of Great Russian nationalism (i.e. chauvinism and xenophobia). However, history shows that talking loudly while carrying a small stick can push states to overreach, producing upheaval at home and abroad, and in Russias case, especially in what it calls its near abroad. The problem will not be that Russia is too strong to handle, but that it is too weak to make a good and reliable partner.
Volodia, Toronto, Canada
No one, certainly not the politicians who claim to be running our ship, should be under any illusions about President Putin. He spent 20 years in the KGB, successor to the MVD, Stalin and Beria's NKVD, the Cheka, and all the other organs of represion that have weighed so heavily upon the people of Russia and it's Empire.
20 years conditioning in that culture is not going to foster any libertarian mind-set. I would suggest that he is a Class 1 successor to Stalin. Our Intellegence gatherers would be well employed researching his charecter forming years. A team of behavioural psychologists woud be well employed reseaching hs body language and his behavioral traits.
Time spent in such a reconaisance would not be wasted.
W D Toulman East Yorkshire.
W D Toulman, Walkington, United Kingdom
Russia gained far more through feigned cooperation and manipulation during WWII and the immediate aftermath than it did during the entire cold war. (See "The New Dealers' War: FDR and the War Within World War II" by Thomas J. Fleming and Roosevelt's Road to Russia by George N. Crocker.)
Putin is an ex-KGB man and knows this. We have more to fear from the fox than the bear.
Publicus, Carmichael, California
Looking at foreign reserves only is foolish without understanding the underlying reasons.
Russia has a huge foreign reserve because it's economy is more dependent than ever on oil and gas revenues and uses this foreign reserve to shelter itself from external price shocks and near hyper-inflation. The return on this enormous reserve is pitiful and could be put to much better use.
The big problem with Russia is that the government needs to institute reforms that will promote investment in aging infrastructure and allow for productivity gains, but this isn't going to happen under Putin, and in fact, is going in the other direction.
GDP for 2005 (from the IMF) might be a more telling measurement: Russia - $763 billion (with nearly half from gas and oil); UK - $2.229 Trillion; US - $12.456 Trillion
Mike, New Jersey, USA
Russia is habitually getting into dictatorial regimes. The constitution give so much power to Presidents that presidents looks like dictators. And when you have maniacs like Putins, it gets worser. Presidents should show restraint and have patience for negative public opinion. Russian rulers still behave like kids when it comes to dealing with dissent.
The people should show courage in coming out and protest against the strong state of Russia. Otherwise Russia might slip into one form of authoritarianism or other.
Ganapathie Iyer, Chennai, India
@I thought Kasparov was arrested and then released?
With a billion dollars in oil revenue a day, and more foreign reserves than US and UK combined, why should Russia not show its claws?
Alice, Moscow,