The local election campaign in England does not seem to be igniting much passion. In Scotland, by contrast, the battle for control of the Parliament and thus the Executive is more intense and is consuming more interest than four years ago. This is in large part because the outcome has been uncertain. The country might have been a Labour fiefdom for decades but the Scottish Nationalist Party started this contest with enormous confidence and a clear lead in the first clutch of opinion polls. That lead is dwindling, and deservedly so.

Alex Salmond’s route to becoming First Minister of Scotland could yet be derailed. As we report, a Times/Populus survey suggests that voters are rightly having second thoughts about him and his colleagues. The headline SNP lead in the first-preference section of the ballot (if just those who understood this electoral system participated at polling stations the turnout would be under 5 per cent) has shrunk from a hearty ten-point edge to a much more vulnerable four-point advantage. The trend in the poll is a drift away from the SNP towards Labour, the Liberal Democrats (especially) and the smaller parties.

Until recently, the SNP has been able to cast this contest as a de facto referendum on Labour for its performance in London as much as Edinburgh and not as a de facto referendum on whether an actual referendum about independence in 2010 is the wish of the electorate. While the argument was framed in such terms, it was no surprise that Labour struggled to respond effectively. It is only in the past fortnight — largely because of previous opinion poll findings — that Scotland has had to ask itself whether the pleasure of giving Tony Blair a last kicking is worth the price of putting the SNP in office. It is not.

The real preference of the voters is indicated by a separate question on Scotland’s constitutional status. Not many people would reverse devolution (6 per cent) but not that many more think that the present arrangements work well (11 per cent). There is plainly a constituency for change, but it is not as radical as the SNP would want. A majority of their fellow countrymen believe that their Parliament should have “more powers” (whether they could define which is debatable) while a mere 22 per cent (down five points on the last Times/Populus survey) conclude that Scotland should be an independent state, fully separated from the rest of the United Kingdom. Mr Salmond is not convincing those whose support he needs that he is right on his central issue, because he is wrong; the Union is far from obsolete.

The mood of a crucial section of the electorate, therefore, appears to be “anyone but Labour, yet perhaps not the SNP, come to think about it”. If so, the Liberal Democrats could be the principal beneficiaries in extra votes and seats on May 3. They represent the middle option — part of the governing coalition but not at the head of it, “outsiders” and “insiders” at the same time and chief advocates of the vague but enticing “more powers for Parliament” policy that has emerged as the acceptable alternative to an unpopular status quo and the choppy waters of independence. The Lib Dems would prefer to renew an alliance with Labour, if arithmetically feasible, than cohabit with the SNP. A vote for them is seen as hurting Labour without helping Mr Salmond. It would certainly be preferable to a truculent majority for an undeserving clique of separatists.