Less than five months after Romania joined the European Union, the drive to defeat corruption has all but ground to a halt. The success of anti-corruption reforms was a central criterion for acceptance of Romania’s accession bid. Yet, since January, a campaigning justice minister has been replaced by a 30-year-old novice, two senior prosecutors investigating alleged bribe-taking by politicians have been sacked, and a president who came to power on an anti-corruption ticket has been relieved of his duties on what appear to be trumped-up charges of “exceeding his constitutional role”. He is now fighting impeachment.

Two factors offer hope for a positive end to this political paralysis: polls and well-attended rallies in larger cities indicate that President Basescu, a plain-spoken former sea captain, retains the trust of voters and will defeat the effort to impeach him in a referendum on Saturday. Secondly, the European Commission still has powerful levers with which to help Mr Basescu to regain his reformist momentum. But if the Commission misuses the incentives at its disposal, the outlook for one of the poorest corners of Europe, and for the future of European enlargement, will be bleak.

The admission of Romania and Bulgaria into the EU put the European bodies that must monitor their progress in uncharted territory. Neither Italy, nor indeed Brussels itself, shines as a beacon of transparency, but never in the Union’s history have there been accepted, as full members, countries so weakened by systemic corruption, organised crime, fragile judiciaries and “oligarchic” control of both print and broadcast media. In these respects both countries still resemble Russia and Ukraine more closely than they do their fellow EU members, lending some credence to the view that their accession should have been delayed pending deeper reforms.

It set a poor precedent when Olli Rehn, the EU Enlargement Commissioner, failed to impose on Bucharest or Sofia reform “benchmarks” as rigorous as those that the ten new members in 2004 were required to meet. This left the completion of too many reforms a matter of trust rather than of self-interest. But in Romania, President Basescu has so far repaid that trust. It was at his instigation that the country’s first independent anticorruption commission was set up and the files of its notorious communist-era secret police were thrown open. He has consistently resisted succumbing to overreliance on Russian energy and investment, presiding over strong economic growth fuelled by Western investment instead.

“We will have another Romania after the referendum,” Mr Basescu promises in The Times today. He deserves the chance to fulfil that promise. The EU can help, but only by adhering strictly to the postaccession reform benchmarks it has imposed on the principle that reform is better late than never. It should continue to refuse to recognise Romanian court decisions abroad until the country can demonstrate the robust rule of law at home. Most importantly, Javier Solana, Secretary-General to the Council of the EU, must resist the urge to display largesse in his report next month on the progress of Romanian reform. The release of £1.7 billion in aid this year, and billions more over the next five years, depends on his verdict. It is time for tough love towards Bucharest.