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The bomb that killed at least 24 people in a hotel in Peshawar is the latest sign of instability in Pakistan. The atrocity has been blamed on local militants in the lawless North West Frontier Province in retaliation for government strikes; others have pointed to Afghan Intelligence, after border clashes between the armies of Afghanistan and Pakistan, whose rapidly worsening relations are being exploited by Taleban militants to establish safe havens in Pakistan. At the other end of the country, tensions remain high in Karachi, where two days of violence have left 41 people dead and brought pitched battles to the commercial capital. Meanwhile, armed militants in Baluchistan are inciting a tribal rebellion, while North and South Waziristan remain no-go areas for government forces as al-Qaeda fighters, criminal gangs and antigovernment rebels plot further strikes with seeming impunity. Pakistan, fractious, violent and unstable, is stumbling towards the nightmare scenario of a failed state.
The violence is the biggest threat to President Musharraf since he seized power in a coup in 1999. And as a coalition of enemies plots an end to his authoritarian rule, his room for manoeuvre becomes ever narrower. He is, in part, to blame for this latest escalation: his ill-judged decision on March 9 to suspend Muhammad Iftikar Chaudhry, the Chief Justice, on trumped-up charges that he had misused his office for personal gain has united the opposition, galvanised the professional classes and transformed chafing at military rule into ugly street violence. Tensions are running high in Lahore, where Justice Chaudhry called for the “destruction” of dictatorships that ignore the rule of law. The explosion came in Karachi, where the MQM movement of families expelled from India in 1947, until now supporters of General Musharraf, stirred up violence.
The President faces a dilemma. He cannot quash the rebellions without the army. But it is his determination to remain head of the army that has alienated Pakistan’s politicians and was the real reason why he dismissed Justice Chaudhry, who was likely to rule against the President’s plans to continue in both offices. He has several options, all risky. He could ride out the crisis, hoping that the protests collapse – which is possible, but not probable. He could argue that he was wrongly advised, reinstate Justice Chaudhry and look for a scapegoat. It is probably too late for this. He could declare a state of emergency and impose martial law. But this risks provoking bigger demonstrations and more bloodshed, and would alienate crucial supporters such as the United States. Or he could do a deal with Pakistan’s ousted politicians in return for support for his presidency. There are signs that he is attempting to woo home Benazir Bhutto, leader of the still popular Pakistan People’s Party, with a promise to drop corruption charges against her. But so far the PPP has refused to agree that he should stay on as army chief.
The collapse of state authority or the bloody overthrow of President Musharraf would be disastrous – for the region, for peace with India and for the global struggle against al-Qaeda. Pakistan-based terrorism is already the greatest threat to security in Britain and the West. General Musharraf must move swiftly to assert authority, and then work quickly to make his Government more accountable. The mobs on the street are a threat to all the world.
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I can't lose much sleep over a country where people kill one another over issues we resolve at the polling booth.
All I want to hear is that the US has a plan to seize Pakistani nuclear weapons in case of emergency.
This is the irony of Third World nukes - that in the end the nukes are more important than the country that owns them.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/US
And why not blame Bush and Blair they are the crux of the problem!
Janyce Matthews, Washington D.C., USA
One of the important muslim country with nuclear weapons on board should be treated by western leader especially by US very carefully.
Supporting a Army dictator in South Asian muslim country was not helpful against the wishes of its population.
Gen Mushraf have convined the world that he is only pakistani who is moderate and whole of population is extremist so he has a right to rule Pak with western support.Regards
Riz, Islamabad, Pakistan
You dont appear to know your history; famillies were not "expelled" from India, they were people that CHOSE to migrate to the Muslim majority state of Pakistan. As the Hindu and Sikh minorities of the new Pakistan CHOSE to migrate to India proper. I suggest you bone-up on your history so as not to make ludicrous and dangerously loaded comments.
Samir Farhat, Dubai, UAE
I can tell the author has never been to Pakistan, otherwise he would not be so pessimistic about the situation.
Akram, London,
No doubt the failures of the Pakistani people will eventually be layed at the feet of Bush and Blair by the Muslim world.
george, slough,
' MQM movement of families expelled from India in 1947'
In 1947, masses of people moved across borders in both directions - choosing to live in India or in the newly created state of Pakistan, or to escape communal rioting. But you decsribe the movement of some Muslims - many chose to stay in India - from India to Pakistan as 'expelled'!
G Bhan, Oldham, UK
I just hope that Britain isn't expected to welcome an onslaught of thousands of pakistani refugees if the country disintegrates.
ed hummer, london,
In wider contest, the creation of Pakistan on religious grounds was a mistake at the first place and breaking pakistan (to Bdesh) was another blunder. India talks about Hindu-muslim, hindu-sikh, christian-muslim roits, but what about recent killings? Time being, problem has shifted its operation a bit away from Kashmir. GOOD NEWS FOR INDIA.
Children's (a monkey & two cats) story is working nicely in this region. Unvisible force is holding kings of MQM & PPP &&... under his umbrella which are nothing more than a remote control to play any scene on the ground.
May be more hot news are on the way, but let us collectivily pray for the safety of the innocent lives in future who have nothing to do with this dirty politics.
Sukhpal, Salmiya, Kuwait
Yes, very true. As someone born in Pakistan, but now resident abroad, I feel that the Pakistanis are as unused to freedom as the Iraqis. It's sad, but the extremes of violence and emotion and corruption do not show the presence of a mature populace. Perhaps India or even Britain will have it back, if they show extreme bad judgement, all expenses paid for by the US.
Alcibiades, Edwardsville, Illinois,
it is not the mobs on the street but general musharraf which is the threat. By destroying Pakistan's already weak institutions, he is making the country ripe for an islamist takeover. Why should any pakistani have favorable thoughts about a western world that promotes dictatorship and oppression?
omar, Milwaukee, USA, WI
I imagine the government's response will be to urge faster emigration to the UK and to strengthen the imported wife industry. The notion of infringing the multi cultural doctrine that all cultures are equally healthy must be protected at all costs.
Ib, Haggerston, UK
What amazes me is that we are seeing a murdeous situation evolving in Pakistan threatening "instability" to the region and the World.
Yet the media seems to be focussed almost entirely on the search for a 4 year old child.Tragic ,the latter story is ,but why is the focus so overwhelming?Many children go missing every day throughout the World without even a mention.It is not every day that the world witnesses a crisis such as we have in pakistan that threatens peace and security potentially for millions of people and has already slaughtered so many in the country itself.
Perhaps it is because South Asia is so far away that we do not relate to it,but we must remember that we have a large Pakistani community who must be feeling more and more vulnerable and neglected.Neither should we forget that it was Great Britain which was responsible for the birth of Pakistan and partition.
james rea, launceston, uk
Just think of the Taliban with 50 tactical nuclear weapons. Could happen. It's a very short jump to the Taliban with 40 nucs, and Al-Qa'ida with 10 nucs. Feeling better??
David H, Alexandria, Virginia/USA