On the day a suicide bomber blew up a bus carrying police recruits, killing at least 35 and maiming many others, a US airstrike on extremists in southern Afghanistan also killed an estimated seven children. A Dutch soldier was killed and three were injured near Kandahar, and, in a separate incident nearby, three coalition soldiers and their Afghan interpreter were killed when a roadside bomb hit their vehicle.

All deaths are deeply regretted, but it is the mistaken killing of the children that will provoke the greatest reaction. A US military spokesman was quick to admit the terrible mistake – but noted, without playing the tragedy down, that the children appear to have been deliberately kept inside the madrassa, which al-Qaeda had been using as a headquarters. As a United Nations child protection officer noted, children in Afghanistan are especially vulnerable. Overwhelmingly, however, they are the victims of violence by al-Qaeda and the Taleban: a suicide bombing on Friday killed five children aged about 12, and in a particularly brutal incident two schoolgirls were killed earlier this month in a drive-by shooting by extremists attempting to terrorise Afghans brave enough to send their daughters to school. In the first four months of this year about 380 civilians have been killed in violence linked to the insurgency; over the past 17 months, violence has claimed nearly 6,000 lives, including some 1,500 civilians.

Inevitably the civilian deaths caused by foreign troops have been seized on by anti-government fighters to incite ordinary Afghans against the 38,000 troops of the International Security Assistance Force and the 12,000 US troops fighting al-Qaeda and their Taleban allies. What is striking is how the insurgents have failed so far to win popular support, even in a country where clan loyalties and a hatred of foreign invaders play such a big role in popular mythology. The vaunted spring offensive has largely failed to materialise. In much of the south, the Taleban morale is low, exacerbated by the death last month of Mullah Dadullah, the third of the top eight-man council to be killed or captured since December. Dreams of a new “emirate” are over.

After three decades of war, most Afghans are weary of fighting and many have been sickened by recent Taleban atrocities, including the murder of a well-known Afghan journalist and the videotaped beheading by a 12-year-old boy of a man accused of spying. Much of the antigovernment anger in Helmand province resulted from human rights abuses, unemployment and operations to eradicate opium poppies. But changed coalition tactics have abandoned the aim of seizing isolated outposts, dramatically increased the reconstruction effort and focused on working with, and through, Afghan local authorities. Gradually, wells are being dug, roads built, jobs created and hearts and minds won.

Not all Western minds have been as convinced, however. The upsurge in violence and warnings of more suicide bombings and tactics learnt from Iraq have persuaded the fainthearted, citing history, that any operation in Afghanistan is unwinnable. It is not. The coalition has shown skill and strategy in adapting its strategy. The rebels lack cause, leadership and popular support. Suicide bombs indicate desperation. Coalition troops will not be panicked – nor should Western governments.