The arrival of Gordon Brown was never going to be an easy moment for David Cameron and the Conservative Party. History suggests that mid-term transitions of prime ministers almost always allow the new Government to portray itself as different and this is refreshing for a jaded electorate. The terror attacks of the past few days have had the effect not only of initiating the new Prime Minister but of creating a premium on age and experience. The Tories should not be surprised that Labour has taken a lead in The Times/ Populus poll we publish today. Nor should Mr Cameron panic.

There are, though, aspects of this survey that merit deeper consideration. Labour had long planned to paint Mr Brown as “strong”, if a shade dour, whereas Mr Cameron would be portrayed as “charismatic”, though he is obviously less experienced in life. These are early days, but there are hints within this poll that voters are temporarily impressed by Mr Brown and are still undecided about Mr Cameron. This is partly the consequence of developments that the Conservatives cannot control, but Mr Cameron has made the task easier for his opponents. It was entirely right that the Tory leader repositioned his party towards the Centre. But it was wholly unnecessary to keep travelling and to woo social workers by entering “hug-a-hoody” terrain (Mr Cameron did not use those words but the caricature is not totally unfair); or invoking a trendy environmentalism that led to a policy of sharply increasing taxes on flights; or invoking Polly Toynbee, The Guardian’s La Passionara and a woman who would not back the Conservatives in this life, at the very least. If Mr Cameron continues to confuse the public and his party, Mr Brown will crush him on polling day.

In response, Mr Cameron reshuffled his Shadow Cabinet yesterday. The moves he made were not particularly radical, nor did they have to be. It was almost inevitable that Francis Maude, who has made plenty of enemies and is frustratingly lugubrious, would step down as party chairman at this stage of the Parliament. The additional authority invested in George Osborne had been well trailed, although it might be spreading him a little thin to ask him to fight back against the Chancellor and to formulate a coherent election strategy in his spare time.

Many will ask why William Hague has not been recruited to serve as party chairman when he is obviously one of the most impressive Conservative performers. The suspicion remains that he is balancing his position on the front bench with a lucrative speaking career and must eventually decide what he wants to be. The sideways shift of David Willetts after the grammar school row is an olive branch to those aggrieved by this self-inflicted wound, but he remains a brilliant mind (or two) and a talented politician. The Tory leader also concluded that he had to make his own attempt to emulate Mr Brown’s “all the talents” gambit (via Pauline Neville-Jones) but it is debatable whether he should have bothered.

Gordon Brown's Black Wednesday

The Northern Rock disaster has torn away any remaining credibility the Prime Minister had

BACKGROUND

• Sorry story tests Gordon to the limit

• Gordon, how wonderful, wise and talented am I?

• Brown’s brain and his hand are not always connected

• How 'cruel' schooling scarred Brown

Not a vote in the country will be altered by these arrangments. The Tories will win or lose on their policies and the quality of their leadership. Mr Cameron is an engaging man who is not yet taken as seriously as he should be. He must change that impression if he is to compete with the new Prime Minister.