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The shorter queues outside Northern Rock’s branch offices and the findings of the poll into the affair published in this newspaper today will probably bring comfort to Downing Street. That cheer should not be excessive. The public remain confused and nervous and recognise that the medium-term implications of this crisis are unpredictable. The uncertainty about the direction of the world economy, especially in the United States, and the extent of any coming credit crunch means that Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling have to be prepared for more financial scares, and thus tests of their character and leadership.
That being so, there are lessons that they could and should learn. The authority of the Treasury, the Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority overlaps and it has not always been obvious which institution should take the lead in such a situation. That ambiguity has not helped to reassure the public. The initial announcement that the Bank of England would supply Northern Rock with resources to ease its position should have been enough to dissuade those with savings from taking out their money, but it did not do so.
This is in part because the decision was not properly explained. As a result, the Chancellor was obliged to issue a guarantee backed by the taxpayer which, while a wise response to his dilemma, creates a potentially awkward precedent.
It would have been better for the Prime Minister to be more visible. Mr Brown could have spent Thursday afternoon knocking together the heads of bankers who have refused to lend each other money, as is customary, instead of offering bipartisan tea to Baroness Thatcher. More activ-ism over the weekend might have made Rocky Monday less unstable. It would also have been best if he had taken charge of the attempt to convince the country that the banking system is stable. Mr Darling has his virtues as a manager but a flair for communication is not one of his strengths. In future, Mr Brown should have no compunction about putting himself on the front line. A prime minister cannot seek the shadows when a crisis approaches.
An opposition leader, by contrast, should not be visible if he has nothing credible or constructive to articulate. A striking aspect of this poll is that while confidence in the Government has been shaken a little, faith in David Cameron and George Osborne as the alternative team has been damaged further. The Conservative response to the banking saga has been intellectually lamentable and politically misjudged. The attempt to charge Mr Brown with causing the difficulties in liquidity that are at the core of what has occurred and to draw a parallel between Northern Rock’s accounts and the wider use of personal credit in the past decade is ludicrous. There has been a tabloid streak in Mr Cameron of late, which will not help him to persuade the voters that the Tories have fundamentally changed and that he is the man to whom they should turn in troubled times.
Whether the times will indeed be troubled and, if so, how badly are not questions solely for the Prime Minister and Chancellor. Banking depends on trust and confidence, and unless the banking community by its deeds inspires trust and confidence, customers will naturally draw their conclusions and withdraw their money. If financial institutions want a return to normal, they must act more responsibly and not expect central banks and ministers to run their business.
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Events of recent weeks seem to suggest that US and UK monetary policy is held hostage by the fortunes of the housing market. If it is proven to be the case that the continued buoyancy of house prices is dependent upon the availability of easy credit, then to quote another Dad's Army advisor Private Frazer, we are all doomed, doomed.
Michael Lewis, St Albans, Herts