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The negotiations have at times seemed like haggling in a market. Both President Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto have been anxious that any political bargain be settled on their terms. The Pakistani President has tried to insist on the right to remain in uniform; the exiled former Prime Minister has demanded that all charges against her be dropped and that she should have a virtual free hand to resume the leadership of her party, the Pakistani People’s Party (PPP). After several false starts, it now seems that the deal is very close. The PPP members of Parliament will support General Musharraf’s reelection for another five-year term and Ms Bhutto will return to seek the office of prime minister; and he will keep his uniform until after the election on Saturday.
The horse-trading has been transparent and, at times, undignified. The amnesty that quashes corruption charges and ends her eight years in exile is as political as it is selective. It remains unclear whether Nawaz Sharif, Ms Bhutto’s rival and the politician still determined to bring down the man who usurped his power, will be allowed to return without fear of deportation. The compromise over General Musharraf’s uniform is also not wholly satisfactory. It has forced him to accept that he cannot continue to underpin his authority with military supremacy; but the legality of even standing for office while head of the Army remains dubious, as the split vote in Pakistan’s Supreme Court made clear.
Nevertheless, the result is a deal that returns a semblance of democracy to Pakistan. It is certainly preferable to the state of emergency mooted last month by a frustrated Musharraf, who found himself thwarted by an alliance of opponents. It points to a return to a more normal political life, a vital step for a country that has known only military rule for half its existence. Whether the deal will restore any real power to the office of prime minister is unclear: Ms Bhutto comes from a dominant political family, and is unlikely to accept a more circumscribed role in her third term as Prime Minister than she enjoyed in her first two. For the moment, however, General Musharraf’s continuation in office is necessary.
There are two issues where his moderating influence remains vital: relations with India and stability in Afghanistan. His main achievement so far has been to wean his country off its atavis-tic hostility to India. This has been difficult, unpopular and costly. He has had to face down the militants backing cross-border terrorism, play down longstanding claims on Kashmir and stand up to religious extremists Only six years after cross-border nuclear confrontation, relations have been transformed. The leaders hold regular meetings. The first lorries crossed the border a week ago. Pakistani-backed attacks in Kashmir have virtually ceased. A deal recognising the line of control as the de jure border is there for the signing, and needs only India to be more generous and magnanimous to make it acceptable.
On Afghanistan, more needs to be done. General Musharraf’s pact with pro-Taleban militants on the border has unravelled, but stability remains elusive. The President must mend fences with Kabul and end opportunistic attempts to win regional advantage. It is a huge challenge. But if he is willing to accept it, he deserves the further term he is now seeking – and, bluntly, there is little alternative.
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