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Democracy has come of age in Poland. A political crisis in the summer was resolved not behind closed doors but with a snap election. That election was fought, principally, by rival conservatives with a shared scepticism about aspects of European integration but radically different visions of Poland’s international role. The turnout broke all post-communist records, with tens of thousands of émigrés queueing up at consulates and thousands more flying home to ensure that their voices were heard in their home towns. The outgoing Prime Minister, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, vowed to mount a decisive opposition but was gracious in defeat. For an example of a body politic in rude health, Western leaders and electorates need look no further than Poland.
Once he chooses a coalition partner, Mr Kaczynski’s successor, Donald Tusk, will have a priceless chance to deliver on that hoariest campaign promise of enabling his country to realise its potential. To do this he must harness the efforts of those who have responded to his central message of modernity and economic competitiveness – including Warsaw’s business elite and the young, dynamic face of Poland so familiar to Britain’s towns and cities, optimistic about the future and far less troubled than Mr Kaczynski about their country’s tortured past relations with Russia and Germany.
But Mr Tusk must also heed the anxieties of Poland’s rural poor, and recognise that the expectations of his electorate as a whole have been transformed by the experience of EU accession and work-led migration. He will be held to account as none of his predecessors have been, and where his promises contain inherent tensions – as in his undertaking to pull troops out of Iraq while maintaining an Atlanticist foreign policy – this may prove hard.
It was said by some before Sunday’s poll that it would be hard for Mr Kaczynski to lose, given Poland’s robust economic growth, now steady at 7 per cent. Yet he has lost heavily. For many younger voters the decisive issue was his inability to coexist constructively with Germany, whose current leadership he appeared, bizarrely, to blame for Poland’s six million Second World War deaths when demanding increased voting weight in EU deliberations. For others, Mr Kaczynski’s anti-corruption drive, resolute and admirable in principle, came to resemble a witch-hunt when 700,000 professionals were required to confess to any previous dealings with a communist secret police force that expired a generation ago. A third category turned against him for pledging that Polish troops would continue to serve in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The Iraq question took on pivotal importance in a televised debate in which Mr Tusk challenged his rival’s right to commit Polish lives to the conflict. Poll ratings for Mr Tusk’s Civic Platform party soared. There is no doubt that many Polish voters feel inadequately thanked by the US for their country’s military contributions, but a precipitate withdrawal from Iraq would be as ill-advised for Poland as for Britain.
As a veteran of the early Solidarity years and a successful former businessman, the next Polish Prime Minister has the credentials to lead an economically liberal democracy. It remains to be seen, however, if he understands the difference between democracy and populism.
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