After three weeks of turmoil, arrests and international uproar, Pakistan has found itself in roughly the same position as it was before President Musharraf took his hasty decision to impose emergency rule. Most detainees have been released, including lawyers and prominent opposition figures such as Imran Khan. Elections are to proceed on January 8, as originally scheduled. The press clampdown has eased. And General Musharraf has promised to take off his army uniform within days, possibly as early as tomorrow.

What is decisively different, however, is the validity of his re-election last month. With the dismissal by the reconstituted Supreme Court of the last legal challenge, there is now no obstacle to his being sworn in for a further five years. Nor can his re-election be reversed: the former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and the other judges dismissed from the court have been officially freed but are probably still under a form of house arrest. And General Musharraf has amended the Constitution to ensure that decisions taken under the emergency cannot be challenged in court.

The focus now falls on the angry and fractured opposition leaders. Outmanoeuvred, they must now decide whether to contest or boycott the elections. Those with little hope of winning are trying to strike a principled pose: Mr Khan has promised to continue his hunger strike, and Nawaz Sharif, exiled in Saudi Arabia, has denounced the vote as a farce. The main Islamist party, however, has promised to field candidates. And, crucially, Benazir Bhutto is keeping her options open. She has gone through the motions of consulting other groups about a general boycott, but has told her Pakistan People's Party to prepare to take part. Few doubt her intention to do an eventual deal that would probably restore her to power. “Never leave a field open, my father had said again and again,” she wrote in her autobiography, recalling her mistake in boycotting the 1985 election held after her father was hanged.

It has taken considerable pressure, domestic and foreign, to persuade President Musharraf to back down. The decisive factor was the tough talk by Washington, though the threat of renewed suspension from the Commonwealth may also have played a part. He still has not lifted emergency rule, and Ms Bhutto will continue railing against him to burnish her domestic image. But the makings of a deal are in place. Washington must nevertheless keep up the pressure — on both Ms Bhutto and General Musharraf. Pakistan has little alternative.