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After an estimated 10,000 civilian deaths, 38,000 Nato combat sorties, seven years of United Nations administration and fifteen months of intensive diplomacy, a final report is being delivered to the UN Secretary-General this weekend on progress towards resolving the incendiary question of Kosovo. The situation can be summarised in one word: deadlock. The Kosovans' ethnic Albanian leaders, emboldened by staunch US backing, demand full independence under a UN plan that purports to guarantee protection of the 100,000 Serbs who would be left in enclaves in the new country. Serbia, which considers Russia “one of the pillars of our foreign policy”, refuses to contemplate losing a territory it has claimed, on and off, since 1389. Yet this deadlock must end soon. Adroitly handled, the process could accelerate Serbia's and Kosovo's trajectories towards EU membership. Mistakes, as a senior Serbian politician hinted on Thursday, could lead the Balkans back to war.
Ban Ki Moon, the seemingly mediocre UN Secretary-General, will be briefed on a strategy for supervising a transition to Kosovan independence over Serbian and Russian objections. This strategy is far from perfect. At its heart is a plan drafted by Martti Ahtisaari, the former Finnish President, that effectively grants self-determination to Kosovo's Muslim majority but denies it to its Serbs. Its promises of protection from the risk of sectarian violence and expropriation are undermined by the experience of many Serbs forced to flee rioting in the enclaves in 2004. And its promise of statehood to the Albanian Kosovans a former ethnic minority within Yugoslavia has alarmed those EU members, including Spain, Slovakia, Romania and Greece, who fear it will encourage their own secessionists.
Despite these flaws, the Ahtisaari plan is the least bad option if a return to conflict is to be avoided. Inaction, as Kosovo's new Prime Minister has made clear, would lead quickly to a unilateral declaration of independence without UN or EU supervision. Serbian secession, at least north of Mitrovica and the Ibar river, would be inevitable and probably violent. The only other conceivable strategy Kosovo's partition on ethnic lines could trigger similar demands from Serbs in Bosnia-Herzegovina and risk unravelling the still-fragile accords that ended that country's civil war.
Kosovan independence is therefore the only realistic basis for long-term stability in the region. But to achieve it peacefully the EU must show itself unafraid of Russian bluster and undistracted by the qualms of those who fear the Kosovan precedent. It must remind those members that Kosovo is a special case, from which Slobodan Milosevic was bent on driving its Albanian majority until the air war of 1999. It must demonstrate, with Nato, that it is serious about the Ahtisaari protections for minority Serbs, not only when the plan is fully enforced but in the crucial transition period leading to it. And it must make clear to Kosovo's Albanians that any hope of eventual EU membership is conditional on absolute respect for their existing borders. As the dream of Kosovan independence becomes reality, any dreams of a Greater Albania must die.
The stakes are high in Kosovo because Russia is using the issue to show off its resurgent strength. Independence is still the right outcome. If necessary Moscow must be defied to achieve it.
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Well (Dave,Wrexham) before opening your gob look at some information first. Hispanic people make about 14.8 % of the US population. And if somehow California (very soon?) has a mexican majority and they want to secede from US well there is one problem with that happening, the US army isn't massacring little kids. So why dont you shut it because Serbia wanted to be greater instead all their doing is getting smaller as a result of their own faults. Since the 1990s all they have done is start wars in Europe.
Dionis, Manchester,
oleg albanians have their country and Kosovars will have theirs aswell,as cypriots,austrians and macedonians heve theirs.
Actually the serbian nation was created in raska,today central serbia,just read some non serbian history.It was illyrian,roman,bulgarian,it became even a geographic part of the serbian empire for some times,and then it was ruled from different local lords albanians and serbians,then 500 years from the ottoman empire.So who is the owner of Kosovo the people living and that allways lived there or the last invader that took it in 1913 on 700 years old claims?
In your post you mixed the international law when you talked about kosova and the jungle law of the strongest when you mentioned checenia.Well oleg fourtunately Kosovo is part of the most civilized part of the world,that wont tolerate anymore crimes like the ones made by serbs in bosnia and kosovo and otherwise,unfourtunately for them,checenia is not in such position.
Agron, Tirana, Albania
Yes James, if by Serbian you mean, "Having a population composed mostly of Albanians".
Kosovo is a special case, but generally self determination must be the right way to go. That means independence or joining Albania. Tirana has been oddly quiet compared to Belgrade.
After WW1 a similar situation in Silesia was resolved by a plebiscite, and part was given to each of Germany and Poland. This was never a problem until Hitler came to power. My point is that if properly policed this can work. It will not be easy for the Serbs but there are no viable alternatives.
Ben, York,
Even more relevant than the separation of Kosova (from Serbia) into a separate state is the separation, also in a separate state (or adding it to Kosova) of the western half of (FYRO) Macedonia - because its percentage of ethnic Albanian population is 98%, i.e. much greater than 92% in Kosova.
Kosovar, Tetovo, FYRO Macedonia
Agron, Tirana,
Well you just said it. Albanians already have a country: Albania. You actually live in its capital. So instead of breaking Serbia and creating a huge problem for Europe, Albanians better stick to Albania. As well, Kosovo was always Serbian, just read some non-Albanian history books. Actually it's were the Serb nation was created. Yes, it was under Turks and was returned to Serbia. The same way it was broken away by NATO and EU through support of KLA (I hope you know what KLA means). If Kosovo becomes independent, there will be a precendent, no matter what NATO or EU says. So other small nations will have their chance. As about Chechnya, its a part of Russia, period. And to prove otherwise NATO will have to fight with Russia. If Kosovo breaks away from Serbia, Abhazia, South Ossetia and Trans-Dniepr region will declare independence. I hope that Scotland and Wales will follow too. There is one standard, one UN and one international law, so you either support it or don't
Oleg, Toronto, Canada
This is essentially a European problem, like it or not. It's high time the continental Europeans took the initiative instead of relying on the UK and USA to do their fighting for them.
Bill , Francestown, USA NH
A lot of comments from people that don't know nothing about kosovos ancient and recent history!
Oleg...
if russians are going to back an independent ossetia than they should give independece to chechnya as well and to the dozens of non russian republics,part of their state.Kosovo is separate case,and don't forgett(learn it because i doubt you have ever heard about)that kosovo was a gift given to serbia only in 1913,in the tratty of london,so at the time england didn't brought all the serb in england but just delivered them a good piece of albanian territory inhabited by albanians,so what they are doing now is just fixin their past wrong,
Dave and the others...
Albanians are indigenous in kosovo,serbs instead arrived there thousands years later during the slaviac migrations,For at least 300 years albanians are absolute majority there,and paralels with california or ossetia is just wool that someone pulled over your eyes or that simply you are intentionaly pulling to the others.
Agron, Tirana,
Oleg when you make a comment about a country or someone giving anything away you should check the history behind it and comment on facts. Albanians and Kosovans are Illyrians, who have occupied this territory since the dawn of civilisation. Please see Encyclopaedia Britannica. In fact, no one is giving anyone anything more or less but only whatâs right and what belongs to the Albanians and should never have been divided after World War I in the first place. Kosovo should indeed get independence and the Serbs should be grateful that they are allowed to stay in Kosovo as equal citizens not trying to hold on to Serbia. If anyone has to chose to leave Kosovo it should be the Serbs who colonised Kosovo not vice-versa.
Patrick, Peterborough , UK
Dave's analogy is a good rejoinder to those Americans who thought that Britain should cede Northern Ireland to the Irish Republic. To all those who found Ulster Protestants' demand on "Not one inch" intransigent, the same would apply to the USA.
The stakes in Kosovo are indeed high and how does the EU, with Nato, propose protecting Serbs in Kosovo: by drawing a green line like the UN one bissecting Cyprus?
Once the Kosovan state comes into being, the worry must be that just as the Croatians expelled 200,000 Serbs from Kryenia, so the Kosovans will expel their Serbian minority.
Anyway, how will an economically unviable state like Kosovo survive?
wilson, London, UK
How dare the UN, US, UK or anyone else insist upon the breakup of a Country, recognised by the UN, as a single entity, by giving independence to a province that has been an integral part part of that country since the 14th century. The arrogance of the West (Again!) is appalling. Where will it all end, other than in disaster, when the US and UK, meekly supported by the UN decides what constitutes a country, and, when it should be dismembered to suit the political climate of the time. Looking back over history if a civil war is just cause to dismember a country, there would be no England (let alone UK) USA, Russia, China, etc., It appears to me more so now than ever, the only jobs politicians do well is create major problems for tomorrow!
Kevin Sullivan, Roehampton, London
Kosovo is a Christian Serbian Country and if the ethnic Albainans dont like it let them go and live in Albaina. We have the same problem in N Ireland where the foreigner trys taking over the land with nothings but problems. KOSOVO IS SERBIAN full stop
James, dublin, Rep of Ireland
Let's get this straight. If California one day (soon) has a Mexican majority who want to secede from the US and form an independent national state for themselves, Washington will be quite happy to allow this?
Dave, Wrexham,
Here the solution: let Britain bring all the Albanians to UK and let them create a country near London. Kosovo isn't British or American to be given away to albanians by USA and Britain. It is necessary London and Washington must be defied to achive Serbian territorial integrity. Use your own territory to give it away!
There will be a point in future that you will reap the harvest you had sown. Next step: independent Abhazia and South Ossetia!
Oleg, Toronto, Canada