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Banks and mortgage lenders will be disappointed to learn that Britons borrowed less to buy houses in November than in any month since July 2005. So will many homeowners. It suggests that recent falls in the price of houses may continue. It indicates that consumer confidence is waning, and adds to concerns about the financial outlook. Much of the British economy is dependent on spending by individuals. If homeowners feel poorer, the impact may be felt widely. Bank of England data yesterday certainly showed homeowners much less eager to dig into accumulated equity in their properties. That stems the flow of cash that provides fuel for all sort of livelihoods.
It would be a mistake, however, to assume that the numbers are universally depressing. There may be at least as many people pleased by such “weakness” as there are those who are distressed. Those worried about the strains on banks and other financial institutions caused by the credit crunch may be relieved. By lending less, banks reduce the risk of incurring losses in the event that some loans turn sour. It suggests that individuals and institutions are becoming more cautious about debt. This is good in itself, and more so in in the context of fears that the housing market is a bubble inflating to bursting point. Evidence provided by yesterday's mortgage lending numbers suggests that the pressure is being gently released. House prices, so far at least, are slipping, not collapsing.
Those trying to buy houses, especially first-timers, will be encouraged by evidence of a cooling in the housing market. A typical first-time buyer must already expect to pay £175,000 to get a foot on the ladder. Many find that this first rung is too high. Research by the Halifax published this week indicated that 300,000 bought homes for the first time this year. This is fewer than in any year since 1980 and 44 per cent below 2002. Wannabe homeowners will not suddenly be able to afford a mortgage, of course. They would also be foolish to hope for an all-out price crash that could put desirable properties back within their price range. The ramifications of a rout would bring them more harm than good if their job prospects are endangered, for instance. But a lengthy period of price stability would help. Homes will gradually become more affordable as time passes and wages increase.
There are reports of substantial price falls in some sectors of the housing market, notably multistorey urban apartments. This is poor news for housebuilders developing such schemes. It is discouraging for those that have bought flats to let them out. It may lead some to criticise the planning authorities for permitting the construction of too many similarly styled dwellings. Alastair Stewart, an analyst with Dresdner Kleinwort, the City firm, calculates that nearly half the properties currently being built are apartments, up from one fifth at the start of the decade. “In various cities in the UK, such as Leeds, Manchester, Ipswich, Norwich, Leicester, Nottingham and Birmingham, there's a vast oversupply”, he says.
Yet this oversupply hands opportunity to the thousands of people who would like to own the roof over their heads. It is also a vindication of the public policy designed to see good quality accommodation made more affordable. In the longer term, a glut of new houses would be damaging. But the national shortage of new homes will only be resolved if annual building rates increase by about 50 per cent. New building must be maintained at the higher level for about ten years if the problems is to be ironed out to the satisfaction of most observers. There may be several nerve-racking swings before the market settles and the nation is equipped with an adequate number of homes. No one should underestimate the difficulties, or assume that success is guaranteed. But as each unpleasant move is taken, stability gets one step closer.
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Problem is the city developers are not apparently reducing their prices.
It is worth remembering that house building is still far below that which is required. Also, all this talk of 'average' house prices being outside the reach of FTBers is misleading: since when have FTBers bought 'average' priced houses? FTBers are at the bottom of the food chain. Hence the term 'property ladder'.
Richard, London, UK
This is a national disgrace. We've got friends in Brittany who earn below the UK average and have just had their first 3 bed house built (without parental help), it's a beautiful house with a huge garden. They have a reasonable mortgage. Young people in the UK are being screwed into paying through the nose for poor housing (housing stock in the UK is poor quality). Compared to much of Europe young people in the UK are being trapped into debt for life and I would encourage young professionals to leave for other countries.
Jon Kingsbury, Southampton, UK
Can someone please tell me what is the average price of land, in pounds per square metre, in the UK?
Flay, Monterrey, Mexico