The murder of Benazir Bhutto serves as a reminder of the thin thread by which so much in the world hangs. Assassinations in the West, although tragic, rarely imperil a country. But in countries where a stable democracy has failed to take root the removal of an individual often alters the course of history.

Events in Pakistan matter to all of us. Pakistan under General Musharraf is an ambiguous ally – his leadership is based on a coup and he has presided over the dangerous growth in the so-called “schools of terror”, the madrasahs, while recently he has made a deal with Waziri tribesmen who are assumed to be giving shelter to Osama Bin Laden. Western policy has been predicated on seeking a democratic alternative to the generals that lets the talents of the country’s industrious middle classes flourish. Were Pakistan to fall into the grip of the Islamists, it could have a cataclysmic and wide impact. The long-standing tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir are important outside the region because when there is a stand-off between the two nuclear powers, there is always a real threat of war. If Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal was to be placed in the hands of Islamist radicals bent on waging holy war on non-Muslims, then the world would have entered a very dangerous time.

Pakistan’s future stability is, to a large extent, an important factor in our own future stability.

As we enter 2008, the world is poised between developments which appear entirely bleak and those which offer cause for optimism. Iraq, for example, having looked hopeless at the beginning of 2007, now seems on the brink of something genuinely encouraging thanks to the dramatically improved stability brought about by General Petraeus’s much-derided “surge”. The year 2008 will be the crunch time for Iraq. If the positive trend continues, in a year’s time the picture will have been transformed. But if there is a slide back towards anarchy then it is difficult to see how the country will ever turn the corner. If only the Bush administration had realised the need for such a push long ago.

Q&A: the murder of Benazir Bhutto

Times South Asia Correspondent asks who had most to gain from killing the Pakistan People's Party leader

Multimedia

• Video: Bhutto assassinated

• Bhutto: the background, legacy and life

• Pictures: death of Benazir Bhutto

BACKGROUND

• Pakistan in chaos as Benazir Bhutto assassinated

• Who killed Benazir Bhutto? Main suspects

• Obituary: Benazir Bhutto, 1953-2007

• Can democracy survive Bhutto killing?

The year 2008 will also see, of course, the election of a new US president. At the very least, this offers the opportunity for the world’s sole super-power to make a new diplomatic start. It is in no one’s interest for America to be so widely disliked, when it alone has the capacity to act across the globe. Not merely militarily – as the Bali conference showed, even the first steps to an agreement on dealing with climate change depend upon US leadership. By the time voting takes place the main contenders for the presidency will be keen to show their green credentials.

And 2008 is likely to be, at best, a tough year economically. In Britain the economy will probably prove pivotal to the emerging political trends of the past few months. If recession rears its head, it is difficult to see how Gordon Brown will be able to turn the tide of recent opinion polls and regain the initiative. Since Mr Brown’s entire reputation rests on his supposed economic competence, any notion that Brown, the chancellor, did not bequeath Brown, the prime minister, quite the legacy he has always claimed to be building will almost certainly prove fatal to his chances of being more than an interim leader.

Not that David Cameron can afford to sit back and wait for the keys to No 10. The Conservatives may now, at last, be enjoying booming poll leads, but if Mr Cameron is to establish a sense of inevitability in the electorate’s mind as the next prime minister then he still needs to tell us a lot more about what sort of leader of this country he will be and why he will be better than the incumbent. Oppositions dislike carrying the baggage of detailed policy but he needs to give the public a sense of ultimate direction next year.

Predictions are so much hot air. All we know with any certainty is that we really do not know how the world will appear this time next year. In the meantime, we wish all our readers a prosperous and safe 2008.