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The case for the prosecution is clear. The demise of Northern Rock is a colossal embarrassment. It should not have been allowed to occur. More shameful still, it has taken four months to get nowhere, from the first public intervention by the Bank of England.
Indecision still defines the response of government and regulators. The costs are enormous. They come under three headings. First, Britain's reputation as a financial centre has been profoundly compromised. London is one of the world's pre-eminent financial capitals. Britain is the only leading commercial standard bearer to find itself grappling with the the collapse and possible insolvency of a high street bank.
Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling shoulder the second set of costs. New Labour has built its credibility on economic competence. It has won three general elections because it has convinced voters that their livelihoods are safe in new Labour hands. Our most senior politicians are damaged by the mess, and we are all impoverished because the Prime Minister, and the Chancellor of the Exchequer, are squandering hard-earned respect. Thirdly, there are cash costs. We, the people, have lent Northern Rock £26 billion, or £430 for each British man, woman and child. We have given guarantees to innocent depositors of Northern Rock to the tune of an additional £29billion, or another £470. Taxpayers are supporting Northern Rock with a notional £1,800 per head.
The £55 billion total, half borrowed by Northern Rock from the Bank of England and half derived from guarantees, is about the same as the yearly sums paid in corporation tax and twice the total council tax bill. The national Budget, to be detailed by Mr Darling in March, could bear some nasty bruises.
The financial costs may not be as bad as this sounds. Most of the loans may well be paid back in full. The guarantees will probably go unused. Day-to-day crisis management costs will soak up tens, perhaps hundreds, of millions of pounds. But not billions. And if all else fails, the Government has security in the houses bought with money lent initially by Northern Rock. If the housing market slumps, the costs will grow. Yet taxpayers could profit also from the arrangement if house prices skip past the current uncertainty and continue to rise at the pace witnessed in recent years.
Nonetheless, this is turning into a saga of mismanagement. The list of people to be indicted for the failure of Northern Rock, and the ineptitude of its rescue, is long. Adam Applegarth, the former chief executive of the Newcastle lender, is the chief culprit. He and his team of top managers ran Northern Rock into the ground. They used methods that were foolish and risky. Northern Rock managers borrowed too much from the financial markets, and lent too much to loan-hungry homebuyers. Northern Rock was left disastrously exposed to the danger that materialised in August when the world's financial system hit the buffers. Banks should manage risk. Mr Applegarth and the other Northern Rock managers put far too many eggs in one, wholesale money-market, basket.
The board, led until October by the ineffectual Matt Ridley, the former non-executive chairman, should have obliged Mr Applegarth to adhere to tried and tested banking practices. The Financial Services Authority, the City watchdog, was wrong to supervise Northern Rock as lightly as it did. The dangers posed by a run on a bank meant that the FSA should have ensured that Northern Rock could cope with all possible threats. Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, did not communicate effectively with the FSA, and the Treasury. More should have been done to help Lloyds TSB, and other banks willing to rescue Northern Rock just before the crisis became public. It is simply not good enough that Britain's half-cocked depositor-protection scheme went unreformed. The tripartite regulatory arrangement, in which the Bank, the FSA and the Treasury were meant to co-ordinate cover, was found wanting.
Investment bank advisers, including Goldman Sachs, should ask themselves whether they have done enough to assist swift decision making. Activist shareholders in Northern Rock, especially those such as RAB and SRM that bought in after disaster struck, made life more complicated and, rightly, are being largely ignored.
The Government of Mr Brown and Mr Darling is dithering. Once Northern Rock foundered the Government should have orchestrated quick and viable resolution. The problem of Northern Rock appears intractably difficult. In reality it is disarmingly simple. Northern Rock ran out of ready cash. The Government, fearing that a run on the bank would destabilise the whole financial system, stepped in with a bridging loan. That bridging loan needs to be repaid. Nationalisation always looked like a possibility. Not 1970s-style state ownership, though. The State needs to take ownership only to assure the people that they will not lose the money lent to Northern Rock, and that they will not be called on to stand by guarantees.
This nationalisation may mean the dismemberment of Northern Rock. It may mean that shares in the company have little or no value. But decisive action is required. For too long, government and regulators have waited for what might be described as a Paul Daniels and Debbie McGee “Magic Moment”. In one big puff of smoke, they hoped, the Northern Rock problem would go away and a private sector solution would miraculously appear. The policy fed a festival of procrastination. The public now face nationalisation by indecision. We, the people, may end up owning Northern Rock not as a result of a decision, but by default.
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There are not enough people in the FSA who actually understand banking. It is fine to have principles-based regulation, as long as there are people who know what the principles (e.g. on asset-liability term mismatch control) should be.
Simon, Wokingham, UK
If Northern Rock can't finance its mortgage book it should put up the price of its mortgages so that existing mortgagors move away to another more competitive institution. It is the capitalist system that should 'sort out' Northen Rock, not the taxpayer. If only our politicians understood that they ARE ineffective and wouldn't frustrate the (far more powerful and egaletarian) mechanisms of the market. No-one called for government aid to prop up Arthur Andersen.
Philippa Pirie, England, London
So much for an independent BofE. A system that has demarcations and agencies is bound to have areas where no one in particular has a general view of the whole. Such fabricated systems are counter intuitive. Banking is a mixture of secrecy, intellect and risk, an odd marriage, an art. All it took was for someone to try and formalise it and some of the more mystical parts evaporated, the actual 'nose' for this odd environment dropped off. Financial markets thrive on confidence, how that confidence is maintained is the dark art and involves a little subterfuge, a circle of self-interest and a code of honour. A rag tag committee of talents is no substitute for this brew. They may have had the figures but little real insight. But what is more critical is that they had no sway over the fiscal policy of the Government, could only act to ameliorate the effect of impositions. The best market in the world is now in jeopardy because of European banking directives - disaster. Cursed by the EU.
Malcolm Turner, Alsager, England
A commercial solution is purely a function of price. "What price am I willing to pay for these assets which will allow me to obtain an acceptable return on the capital I am going to employ?" The difference between this commercially calculated price and the book value of NR's assets is the potential loss. The shareholders will cover that loss to the extent of their investment and will get nothing back. The remaining loss will be for us the taxpayer. Alternatively, NR can be nationalised and if managed properly, a loss broadly similar to that envisaged by a commercial solution will emerge. The shareholders will once again get nothing. No amount of financial engineering including reinsurance etc by Goldman Sachs will turn this sow's ear into a silk purse. So do the sums based on these two scenarios and make your mind up Gordon. We the taxpayers who will ultimately pick up the bill deserve and demand a reasonable estimate (we know it cannot be accurate) of what it is going to cost us.
Bob, London,
You mention the failure of the tripartite regulatory system as one of the causes of failure. But no mention that the architect of that now discredited system was no other than the Iron Chancellor, G Brown! It was obvious even when it was introduced that there were too many opportunities to "pass the parcel" if things went wrong.
You state that taxpayers may profit if house prices rise in future. How? The houses are owned by householders eho enjoy the rise in price. NR (we taxpayers now) simply provides up to 125% mortgages which, according to their website, are 30% UNSECURED. Such caution with taxpayers' money! To the wind!
Howard, Chester,
I agree with the proposed Keegan solution.
As well as teaching the Government how to pass the ball effectively he could teach them how to pass the buck effectively.
In the mean time the government will continue to score own goals to the end of time.
Stephen Green, Correns, France
Northern Rock's name adorns the shirts of the football team it sponsors, Newcastle United, which has also been in almost total disarray. Newcastle have just turned to their former messiah Kevin Keegan to perform another turnaround miracle. Perhaps Keegan could take on Northern Rock as well?
Faustino, Brisbane, Australia
Britain has propped up one bank. Every other major country has had to do the same for its banking system. That's what "extra liquidity" means.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK