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Yesterday's euphoria will fade fast. After the flags, fireworks, rejoicing and street parties, the people of Kosovo must now deal with the challenges of the solemn parliamentary declaration that proclaimed their country independent. On the diplomatic front, they face the anger and unyielding opposition of Serbia, which yesterday said it would do all it could, short of military action, to annul this “arbitrarily and illegally proclaimed” independence. At home, they must contend with poverty, high unemployment and the sullen resentment of the 120,000-strong Serb minority, who boycotted the parliamentary declaration and are braced for violence. Internationally, Europe's newest nation has divided the European Union and will run into a Russian veto halting any attempt to join the United Nations.
European Union foreign ministers meet today to give broad endorsement to the plan for “supervised” independence drawn up by the EU's special envoy, Martti Ahtisaari. In concert with Washington, Britain, Germany, Italy and France are to recognise Kosovo and authorise the deployment of a 2,000-strong EU police and judicial team intended to underpin the 120-day transition to full independence, after which Kosovo will adopt a new constitution. Several EU members, however, will not follow suit. These include Spain, which fears that the breakaway state will set a precedent for the Basque country. Kosovo's immediate neighbours also have doubts: Greece, Romania, Bulgaria and Cyprus share with Serbia an Orthodox heritage and are wary of emboldening their own secessionist fringes. Indeed, Cyprus, which voted for a new President yesterday, is unlikely ever to recognise Kosovo, fearing that this will entrench its own division.
The more ominous opposition, however, comes from Russia. Moscow has long sided with Serbian nationalists, though the recent re-election of Serbia's pro-West President may limit its influence in Belgrade. But last week President Putin warned the West that Moscow was far from resigned to Kosovan independence and would be “forced to act”. Without UN approval, he said, independence would set a precedent for other “frozen” conflicts, such as the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia and the Trans-Dniester area of Moldova. Moscow may recognise their independence, provoking new tensions. It is likely also to prove an even more prickly partner in the Security Council.
Given these legal and diplomatic obstacles, Hashim Thaci, the former head of the Kosovan Liberation Army and now the country's Prime Minister, must show steely realism. He must reinforce the guarantees to the Serb minority and quash any nationalist hopes of a Greater Albania that unites Kosovo with ethnic kinsmen in Albania and Macedonia. He must also puncture exaggerated hopes that independence will bring swift prosperity. Kosovo's economy is still depressed: unemployment is running at around 40 per cent, almost half the population subsists below the poverty line of €1.45 a day and each year 30,000 young people enter the job market - five times the number business can absorb. Kosovo needs better skills, a more robust legal system and less corruption to attract investment. Kosovans have suffered much and have spent nine years in limbo. Now that they are sovereign, they must work hard to make a success of Europe's 46th nation.
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