For a man so deluded about his past achievements, Robert Mugabe has a painfully clear understanding of his prospects at the polls. His rivals for the Zimbabwean presidency “may win some seats”, he said recently, “but they cannot win the majority. Impossible.”

Few would gainsay him. Zimbabwe's opposition movement is more vocal than in past years, but more divided. Its voters can expect systematic intimidation this Saturday from police at polling stations. Constituencies have been redrawn in favour of the ruling Zanu (PF) party. The count has been centralised and will be supervised behind closed doors by presidential appointees. There is not even a pretence of fair election coverage in the state media, and in any case voting, for millions, will take second place to the more urgent business of survival. This is why Mr Mugabe's election forecast is likely to be accurate. It is a tragedy for Zimbabweans; it is also proof of a colossal failure of international diplomacy.

Surrounded by sycophants, Mr Mugabe may actually believe his claim to be a freedom fighter. He is in fact a wrecker on a par with Kim Jong Il. He has turned Africa's second-strongest economy into a nation dependent on food aid and shuttle trading. Life expectancy has tumbled from 60 years to 35 in less than a generation. One in four children is an orphan. Unemployment stands at 80 per cent, and inflation, at more than 100,000 per cent, is the highest in the world. A country of huge mineral wealth, whose staggering natural beauty should be the basis of a world-class tourist industry, has been reduced to starvation and, at best, subsistence.

The man responsible has shored up his domestic position with home-grown thuggery and Soviet-style kleptocracy. By razing the slum dwellings of some two million opposition supporters in 2005, he disenfranchised them. The beneficiaries of Mr Mugabe's expropriation of Zimbabwe's white farmers have been his own party elite, and the process will continue in the industrial sphere with a new law forcing foreign-owned businesses to yield control to black Zimbabweans.

Mr Mugabe hopes to deepen his inner circle's vested interest in a grotesque status quo that cossets ministers in fortified mansions while child prostitutes haunt central Harare. But he is also dependent on continued foreign acquiescence. President Mbeki's failure to denounce the Mugabe dictatorship has been self-defeating, swelling the tide of refugees from Zimbabwe to South Africa, but entirely representative of the rest of Africa's lamentable response - both at the African Union and the UN. His crimes have been ignored; his anti-colonial bombast has been endorsed, even though half a century out of date.

Britain has tried not to dignify Mr Mugabe's ranting with a response. Last year's EU-AU summit was supposed to vindicate this strategy by letting others lead the condemnation of Zimbabwe. In the event, just four leaders of the European Union spoke up, and the silence from the African side was deafening.

There are glimmers of hope that Mr Mugabe may win this election and yet lose power. His own former Finance Minister, Simba Makoni, is running against him. His best-known rival, Morgan Tsvangirai, is drawing large crowds despite police intimidation. The election commission may even find the courage to defy the Zanu (PF) strongmen. Whatever happens on Saturday, the time has come to stop appeasing the monstrous Mr Mugabe.