Robert Mugabe will not go without a fight. Having almost certainly lost the presidential election to Morgan Tsvangirai, the Movement for Democratic Change leader, the 84-year-old Zimbabwean president appears determined that voters will not make the same mistake again. Mr Mugabe’s thugs, otherwise known as war veterans and pro-government militia, are said to be planning a campaign of intimidation and violence to ensure that any election run-off gets the right result.

It is a depressingly familiar story. Once it became clear that he had lost the election, Mr Mugabe ordered the country’s electoral commission to declare him the winner. When it refused, he set about manipulating the result, apparently with the connivance of his ally Thabo Mbeki, the South African president. Now, as a result of that manipulation, his Zanu-PF party can claim that the result was inconclusive and another election is necessary.

Why does the world allow Mr Mugabe to get away with it? Why does Mr Mbeki, who must realise the damage he is inflicting not just on Zimbabwe but on the entire continent of Africa, not tell him to go? Surely, despite the deployment of the thugs, after nearly three decades the Mugabe era must be nearing its end.

Should Mr Tsvangirai emerge as president from this messy process, the challenge facing him is formidable. Few can doubt the bravery of this former trade union leader, who has persevered despite the beatings, bullying and intimidation of Mr Mugabe’s henchmen. His abilities as a leader are as yet untested. He had a limited education and has tolerated the thuggish elements in his own party’s youth movement. If Zimbabwe needs a Mandela he may struggle to fit the bill.

Yet Mr Tsvangirai deserves his opportunity. He will bring tremendous goodwill into office, particularly among exiled Zimbabweans in Britain, South Africa and elsewhere. Some may return, partly reversing the brain drain during the economy’s precipitous decline of the Mugabe era. He promises “real land reform”, the test of which will be an end to the racism against white farmers of recent years. Nobody expects a return to the colonial past but the 200 white farmers who remain should be allowed to be part of the new Zimbabwe and the others should be given proper compensation for the theft of their land.

Despite the horrors of the Mugabe years, Zimbabwe retains a semblance of democracy. Not all of the machinery of state has become an agent of Zanu-PF. The electoral commission, army and judiciary have shown touches of independence in recent days. Mr Tsvangirai can build on this and on the country’s resource riches. The economy is not beyond saving and neither is the country. In one direction this weekend lie democracy and hope. In the other direction, should Mr Mugabe retain his brutal hold on power, lie dictatorship and decline. That would be disastrous for Zimbabwe and disastrous for Africa.