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Eleven days ago Zimbabwe's elections raised hopes that Robert Mugabe's tyranny was near its end, and might even end peacefully. Those hopes now look forlorn. Mr Mugabe has lost control of Parliament but is clinging to the presidency at any cost. The result of the presidential poll is still not known, and may never be. Thugs loyal to the regime have taken to the streets and occupied the country's last remaining commercial farms to soften up the electorate in case of a second-round vote - but even that last refuge of democratic hopes may yet fall to emergency rule.
Amid the chaos, this much is clear: having stolen a series of elections through fraud and intimidation before contriving to steal this one, Mr Mugabe has long since lost any legitimacy as Zimbabwe's leader. He and his inner circle are now playing for time. Zimbabweans and their neighbours may feel powerless to remove him, yet neither can they afford to let his ruinous regime endure. Africa's other leaders, therefore, must at last find the courage to heed the opposition's pleas and tell Mr Mugabe that his time is up. And Gordon Brown, who once staked his international reputation on a pledge to ease African suffering, must show that these were not idle words. His response to Zimbabwe's crisis, so far, has been timid, incoherent and ineffectual.
For eight years, the rationale for Britain's soft-spoken policy towards Harare has been that strident criticism of Mr Mugabe would only unite his country behind him. That contention had merit only as long as real pressure was being applied via other European and African governments - and there is little evidence that it was - and only until last month's election. The parliamentary vote did more than end the 28-year majority of the ruling Zanu PF and unseat several of Mr Mugabe's ministers. Given his tight hold on the party, it amounted to a massive rejection of Mr Mugabe himself.
This is what Mr Brown should now be saying, repeatedly, in public and without fear of Britain's colonial shadow, which a majority of Zimbabweans understand exists chiefly in Mr Mugabe's fevered imagination. Instead Mr Brown has delegated condemnation of the regime's delaying tactics to his Foreign Secretary, who makes resonant speeches but has yet to craft a concerted diplomatic effort. He has urged President Mbeki of South Africa to toughen his position on Zimbabwe, but in private and inconclusively. He has failed to galvanise Nato (at its recent summit in Bucharest) or the South African Development Council into united condemnation of the Mugabe regime. And he has called for “proper monitoring” of any second-round presidential vote.
Proper monitoring will, indeed, be vital, and finding ways to guarantee international observers' presence at a run-off poll is an urgent priority for the EU and the UN. But Mr Brown's choice of admonishment is baffling. His focus on a second round before the first-round results are known is little better than the outrageous Zanu (PF) demand for recounts without the initial counts being published. Mr Brown's duty to lead the world's response to Mr Mugabe is all the more urgent for Mr Mbeki's stubborn failure to lead Africa's. If Mr Brown is accused of meddling, he should admit it. Zimbabweans now need meddling of an entirely new order to rid themselves of the man who has destroyed their country.
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