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Change is a powerful political ally, especially when things are not going so well. As with the US presidential election, candidates in the 62nd Italian postwar election are keen to show they can break with the past. Italy will have a new leader by the time votes cast in the two-day general election are tallied on Monday evening. But it is far from certain whether either candidate is willing, or able, to change Italy enough.
It is a two-horse race. If Silvio Berlusconi is elected, Italy will call time on the centre-left coalition that has ruled the country under Romano Prodi for the past 20 months. Mr Berlusconi is a man Italians know well, having served as Prime Minister twice before, most recently from 2001 to 2006. The 71-year-old billionaire and media tycoon has fame around the globe, too, although not always for the right reasons.
Italy needs to reform its public services and tackle trade union power if it is to regain economic prowess. By instinct, Mr Berlusconi will pursue pro-market reforms that came to Britain under Margaret Thatcher 25 years ago. As rubbish piled in the streets of Naples, it was easy to draw parallels between the 1978-79 winter of industrial discontent in Britain and Italy's version more than a quarter of a century later. But Italians may doubt whether Mr Berlusconi can act on his instincts. Mr Berlusconi blames Italy's anaemic economic prospects on the socialist proclivities of Mr Prodi. Yet the failings now apparent are at least partly due to the inadequacies of Mr Berlusconi's previous terms in office. His populist instincts, meanwhile, are worrying. Some may forgive his demeaning comments this week about the physical appearance of female political opponents as harmless banter. It is much more difficult to dismiss his assertion that senior members of the Italian judiciary should take mental health checks. It is unlikely to help him to win support for reform from the legal establishment.
If Italians vote for Walter Veltroni, the centre-left candidate, they will get generational change in the form of a first-time prime minister 20 years younger than the old pretender. But in terms of political complexion it will be more of the same. He and Mr Berlusconi have gravitated towards the Centre, and share views - in theory if not in practice - on key issues such as controlling public expenditure. Measures from Mr Veltroni to make it easier to start up a small business have been well received. His determination to curtail public spending is welcome. But his ability to change Italy will be hindered because he will rely on backing from old-style Communists.
If the most recent opinion polls are to be believed, Italy will give Mr Berlusconi a last chance to deliver on the tantalising promises that he has made. But the most recent polls are two weeks out of date, and anecdotal evidence suggests that Mr Veltroni has narrowed the gap. This is an achievement in itself, given the distrust of the Left created as Mr Prodi attempted to improve public finances by raising taxes.
A win for Mr Berlusconi is likely to make Italian politics more memorable, and perhaps more entertaining. There is no guarantee that Italy will improve in the way it needs to if he regains power. It must pursue reform with gritty determination and a new vigour. Italians would surely be wise to choose the devil they don't know, Mr Veltroni, over the devil they do.
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You have written: " ...candidates in the 62nd Italian postwar election are keen to show they can break with the past."
As a matter of fact, there have been 61 governments, not elections, since the war.
Actually, the next will be the sixteenth Parliament since 1948.
It would have been peculiar, even by Italian standards, voting on aveage every 11 months.
Frederick, Milan,
It is not true that Veltroni will rely on backing from old-style Communists. His novelty was just this one, a new party withou the alliance with the old-style Communists.. You should be more accurate.
Antonio De Nicola, napoli, italy
It is not true that Veltroni will rely on backing from old-style Communists. You should be more accurate!
Antonio, napoli, italy
This article doesn't mention the fact that Mr. Veltroni created a brand new party, the Democratic Party, and that the main purpose of this new party is to get rid of the alliance wth the far left, including Communists.
Very superficial analysis, I am sorry to say.
Marcello Lamberanzi, Rome, Italy,
The rubbish dacaying on the streets of Naples smells so good if compared to the history of italian politics. Eau de parfum, I would say. Summarizing the last hundred years we have been though fascism, populistic mass parties that - with rare exceptions - have fomented the struggle among citizens, state terror, unsolved massacres, secret illegal organizations parallel to governments, legalized and even accepted endemic corruption, umbelievable amnesia (they're still there), istitutional mafia that kills judges pushing a button, and in an instant a motorway or a parking area is shattered, and then everything goes back to normality as if the weird judge was the problem, shareholders robbed of all their savings, Berlusconi and his quest for total dominance without respecting the rules, rather by making new ones, his apparently accepted contiguity to mafia, his crimes. Here living honestly is hard, start an enterprise almost impossible. Italy carries on thanks to italians, despite politics.
Lorenzo Albanello, Rome, Italy
do you know that the President of the Italian Republic costs the Italian taxpayers 4 times more than what Queen Elizabeth costs to the Uk taxpayers? and do you know that some Italian politicians earn up to 56000⬠net per month thanks to their very complicated bonus systems?Berlusconi is a nutter, but Veltroni did everything he could to boycott the north and wants to allow 16 years olds and immigrants to vote. so I'm voting for the independentists this time. I've had enough to maintain them. Besides, I also lived in the UK for 3 years and my boyfriend's English. He would never go back to the Uk ever. I must admit that what Mr Chapman wrote further up is true. I woulnd't swap Berlusconi for Gordon Brown.
Sara Fagnani, Lecco, italy
Before judging their capacities as leaders, I must say, I have observed their way of expressing themselves, of talking.
Berlusconi is so violent and willing to show is strenght more than his ideology that it looks to "dictatorish" to me.
As an Italian living in Belgium, in an international community, I recognise how ridiculus our politicians are and think that, in those harsh conditions we are experiencing, Veltroni seems more decent.
Italian politics condition is so sad it will be heartbreaking for me to talk about it, but this first decency criteria is the one that would leed me primarily toward my deciosion, if only I could vote. (I will turn 18 in a few months).
Laura, Brussels, Belgium
well, now ascertained that the very equable person who revises readers' comments is an Italian, would be nice to know why a comment not offensive, nor angry, nor against the Times, nor against Britain, has been rejected. Does it relate to my criticism towards Italians' bad habit of exchanging vote for employment? Or is it related to my criticism towards the influence of the Catholic Church on politics, here?
Anyway, the nice individual who will read this message has made me smile, really :)
Florenzo Paolo Dimagli, Bari, Italy
Sad to say, it's one of those situations where you don't know what is worse. We have had five years of Berlusconi, which emptied the State coffers, did absolutely nothing to boost privatizations where needed (how can one who has benefited from a double monopoly, RAI plus Mediaset, really believe in free market?), and was only interested in hampering the judicial system and keeping the status quo in matters of television and other media? On the other hand, having lived in Rome since 2003 I have appreciated--let's say--Veltroni's style of media politics: press conferences, opening ceremonies, whatever amounted to advertising for himself. Yet Veltroni might be a better prime minister than Berlusconi; it doesn't take much to be better than Silvio. But probably these elections are no more than a joint move to eliminate most smaller parties and then set up the Italian version of the Grosse Koalition. God help us!
Vittorio Caffe', Rome, Italy
there is no doubt that Italy should avoid another Berlusconi government, 5 more years with him, Bossi & Co would be a real disaster for Italy.
Veltroni has never been prime minister and in my view he is much more credible than Berlusconi, I think he deserves a chance.
Antonio, Luxembourg, Luxembourg
It seems ironic that British commentators are offering advice to italians when Uk is is in such an awful mess. Having kived in both countries I would vote for Italy under any government over Uk under the present administration. here in Italy the health service is efficient, hospitals clean, no CCTV everywhere. You never see drunks on the street or in bars, the cost of living is cheaper council tax (ICI) is tiny compared with UK and possibly because of all this Italians are pleasnt, helpful, friendly and much less stresssed than your average Brit. Physician cure thself before offering advice to Italians.
c chapman, corridonia, italia
Is the guy who revise our comments Italian?
What if the next mail goes to another level?
Florenzo Paolo Dimagli, Bari, Italy
Italians already know Mr. Veltroni because in Italy who gets the power is not the new "Premier" but his party or coalition gets it, and Mr. Veltroni's party is the same party who is still at the government with Prodi. Mr. Berlusconi coalition is the only one in the story of Italy that lasted 5 years and most of the good things thery've done have been erased by the coalition of Veltroni in the last two years. We know both devils....
Sorry for my broken english.
Rocco, Reggio Calabria, Italy
Veltroni--the devil they don't know? Doesn't he have a record as mayor of Rome?
G. Pasley, Bodden Town,
"Italians would surely be wise to choose the devil they don't know, Mr Veltroni, over the devil they do."
Unfortunately, Italians know very well both devils . Furthermore, Veltroni has been Rome Mayor for seven years, therefore it's very easy judging him...
Pietro, Rome, Italy
What is unbeliveable is that this happens only two years ago, and people seems to have forgotten it in a while...
Mauro, Roma, Italy
I hope that win Mr. berlusconi because is more liberal that comunist veltroni. The polls are; berlusconi 44% veltroni 37% at this ime
Mirco ,San Giovanni Valdarno ,arezzo ,italy
mirco, san giovanni v.no, italy
Unfortunately it appears that italians still do not realise what is necessary to get them out of the mess they are in and are still blinded by Mr Belusconi rash promises, he didnt do anything good for italy the last two times and he wont now.
Simon, Arezzo, italy