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While Britain wonders whether it is close to the end of a political era, Ireland knows that it is. Bertie Ahern, who has served as Taoiseach for 11 years, will be succeeded today by Brian Cowen. Mr Ahern would have liked to remain in office for another year, as he freely admits, but the embarrassing revelations about his willingness to accept financial support from friends and associates while Irish Finance Minister in the early 1990s has taken a painful toll on his political standing. By resigning early, he hopes to limit the damage to his party and successor.
Mr Cowen has come to power at an awkward time. The Irish economy, having long been “the Celtic Tiger”, is a more docile feline at present. His Government has to win support in a referendum on the ratification of the Lisbon treaty, the only nation in the EU where voters will be consulted on this matter. While Irish sentiment remains broadly sympathetic to European integration, scepticism about the value and efficiency of Brussels has grown and this ballot, like the Nice treaty a decade ago, offers voters the chance to deliver a message to the political establishment.
The broader question for Mr Cowen, though, is one of style and direction. He has built his reputation on being a reasonably safe pair of hands as a minister across a range of departments and as a party loyalist through and through. Within Fianna Fail, he has been an enforcer, the Cardinal Ratzinger to Mr Ahern's John Paul II. While this has provided him with considerable experience, it also means he is deemed a more partisan individual than his genial predecessor. The challenge for him is to show that he can reach out beyond the faithful and convince his compatriots of all stripes that he is pursuing an agenda that is about more than keeping his party in charge.
He has also not been especially involved in Northern Ireland. Yet he has an opportunity that no incoming Taoiseach has enjoyed. When Mr Ahern arrived in the summer of 1997, the IRA was not even on what would become its second ceasefire, never mind poised to begin a process that would culminate in the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein sharing the spoils at the head of a Northern Ireland Executive. There is much logic in closer co-operation between North and South but it will require diplomatic flair to convince Unionists that closer economic ties, for instance, are not the stalking horse for creeping unification. Fianna Fail's continuing claim to be “the republican party” in Ireland will enhance that suspicion in sections of the Province.
Mr Ahern overcame such concerns by his personal charm but also through intense effort. He went out of his way to form a working relationship with the Rev Ian Paisley well before it was obvious that a firebrand preacher was ready to become a more benign First Minister. As Ulster itself is about to witness a transformation at the top from Mr Paisley to the more reserved Peter Robinson, the need for constant personal engagement by the new Taoiseach is all the more urgent. In many ways, he and Mr Robinson are similar figures in that the First Minister-designate has also been prominent on the scene for many years but mostly as the fixer inside a party machine, standing behind a more dynamic personality. Mr Cowen has the chance of embedding and deepening what Mr Ahern has started. He should regard this as his highest priority.
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