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It is inevitable that despite the speeches and courtesies there will be a hollow note to President Bush's farewell visit to Europe this week. Even like-minded centre-right leaders in France, Germany and Italy with whom the President hopes to bolster ties to Washington may be less than fully engaged, knowing that the present Administration has only seven months to run and that Europe is transfixed by the prospect of change in Washington. European Union governments, including Britain, are already focused on the politics and personalities of the coming US election. At the US-EU summit in Slovenia, which Mr Bush will attend tomorrow, European leaders may be listening with only half an ear to his proposals and entreaties (see page 8).
This would be a mistake. Mr Bush may no longer command the respect of his Western allies, but the partnership between Europe and the United States remains vital for stability and prosperity. How the two sides respond to the current turmoil in food, oil and commodity prices and their co-operation in preventing recession is of enormous immediate importance. It will also go far towards determining transatlantic relations under the next president. There needs to be co-operation between the institutional and financial bodies that execute joint policy. Now is no time for sitting back to await the new team in January.
Mr Bush cuts a more conciliatory figure now than at any time in his Administration, and Europe should pay close heed to the issues on which he demands greater support: Iran, Iraq and Washington's recent proposals for tackling climate change. Tensions over Iran's apparent continuing drive to acquire nuclear weapons remain high, and Tehran appears, yet again, to be playing for time. Europe has long worried about possible military action; but it needs to show greater resolve in keeping up the diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran if it is to have any restraining influence. In Iraq, the Europeans must do more to help the country to emerge from chaos, and stop pretending that this is largely a US responsibility. On climate change, there is huge dissatisfaction with the Bush Administration's record. But the US has conditionally supported the principle of binding emissions commitments, and the President's recent willingness at least to engage on the issue should be embraced .
On one issue, the Europeans may already be focused: the West's prickly relations with Russia. With perhaps deliberate timing, President Medvedev made his first foray into the EU last week, when he visited Germany and urged the West to pay attention to a Russian role in stabilising energy prices and averting recession. He gave no details, however, saying nothing about increasing oil production or curbing prices or using Russia's mounting currency surplus to ease credit squeezes. The impression is that he spoke out merely to show that he is his own man and not just the new voice of former President Putin.
Mr Bush may be a lame duck as his term ends; Mr Medvedev has been a lame duck from the moment he came to office. He is not even keeping the seat warm for Mr Putin, who still sits, literally, in his old seat in Cabinet. The nationalist tones of Mr Putin's policies came out in Mr Medvedev's warnings at the weekend to Georgia and Ukraine that they open talks on Nato membership at their peril. Europe, therefore, needs to remain wary of Russia, with the support of the United States. President Bush is, in some ways, at his most powerful in his final year of office, weighed down only by his debt to history. Nor can the world afford to put pressing international business on hold for seven months. Mr Bush's visit should be treated seriously. He may now be biding his time, but the issues facing Europe and the US cannot wait.
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