President Arroyo looks set for a further six years in office in the Philippines after exit polls gave her a substantial lead over her main rival. The result of the third presidential election since the ousting of Ferdinand Marcos may not be known for almost a month, however, as laborious counting by hand, procedural confusion and the inevitable accusations of cheating by an opportunistic Opposition make the outcome far from certain. If she wins, President Arroyo will gain her first real mandate since assuming power after Joseph Estrada, a corrupt and incompetent lightweight, was forced from office in 2001. She deserves her likely victory.

There is a sense of déjà vu about the present contest. Like his close friend Mr Estrada, the main opposition contender is a film star, the hero of 282 swashbuckling productions, who bases his appeal to the poor on shameless populism combined with fiery rhetoric against the political, economic and military establishment. Fernandoe Poe Jr, whose elliptical press conferences gave few hints of any coherent policy to deal with the country’s many problems, maintained nevertheless that he was ahead in the polls, and that any advantage claimed by the Arroyo camp was the result of fraud and/or intervention by the military.

Unfortunately there have been enough instances of corruption, vote-buying, intimidation and violence to make such charges credible. The Commission of Elections stands accused of extraordinary incompetence in organising the ballot across the sprawling archipelago of 7,000 islands and 82 million people. Names were left off electoral roles, ballot papers were missing and voters often were either unwittingly disenfranchised or were unable to reach polling stations.

Nevertheless, despite the election violence and numerous fatalities, the campaign was probably as fair as could be expected in a country that has such a turbulent recent past. There is no reason to doubt that Filipinos voted in their millions for a President who has done much to restore dignity to her office and stability to the country. The Islamic insurgents in the south, some linked to al-Qaeda, have been contained, although the extremist bacillus is still virulent. President Arroyo has been a close ally of the US in the fight against global terrorism, and has made no concessions to the rebels who have periodically bombed, kidnapped and terrorised villagers and tourists.

The daughter of a former President and an economist who studied contemporaneously with Bill Clinton in Washington, President Arroyo has enjoyed strong support from business leaders and the Manila elite. But she has had little success in ending the stark divisions in Philippines society, improving conditions for the rural poor or curbing the influence of powerful clans and warlords with private armies who determine politics outside the capital. The election campaign barely touched on the main threats to the country: corruption, huge debts, local insurgencies, poverty and a weak economy. Former President Estrada, awaiting trial for economic plunder, remains hugely popular and Mr Poe, with the dubious backing of Imelda Marcos, spent his campaign shamelessly pandering to voters in a populist fashion.

A new Arroyo term must spread the benefits of better administration and an open economy beyond the few islands of prosperity. The President has called for vigilance over the next month, as idle talk of coups, counter-coups and election result challenges undermine confidence and the currency. There is extraordinary potential in the Philippines and its people, but there is also the makings of violent upheaval.