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Relishing the spotlight, President Sarkozy is rarely loath to travel to a foreign capital to demonstrate France's international initiatives. But he cannot be pleased at having to add Warsaw yesterday to his planned visit to Dublin next month to discuss what to do about the Lisbon treaty. For what first appeared as an exercise in arm-twisting to force Ireland to reconsider its veto now looks a lot more complicated.
Eurosceptics in Eastern Europe are coming out in support of the Irish, determined to halt the Brussels steamroller. Lech Kaczynski, the President of Poland, is refusing to sign the treaty's ratification by the Polish parliament. He argues that it is now pointless. The Czech parliament may still reject ratification. Even in Germany, where enthusiasm for the treaty crosses all party boundaries, President Köhler has decided not to sign the documents until a legal challenge is heard by the country's Constitutional Court.
What to do about the elephant in the room is, for the impatient French President, an infuriating distraction from the grandiose plans he had to launch the French EU presidency with a series of eye-catching programmes. Even these plans, however, have become a lot less grandiose. France's partners, especially Germany, have made it clear that they do not share Mr Sarkozy's enthusiasm for a Mediterranean Union that would be financed by the EU but from which the northern members would be excluded.
There is considerable scepticism also about earlier proposals for a euro summit, the first to be held since the single currency was introduced. And Britain, among several others, is sharply critical of France's proposals to call an interim review of the Common Agricultural Policy, as this is seen as a way of protecting French advantages under the pretext of reconsidering scheduled reforms in the light of the global food price rise.
Most EU states would welcome Mr Sarkozy's energy and enthusiasm. But they are wary at what they see as his Bonapartist instincts, especially his determination to use the presidency to farther France's national interests.
Angela Merkel is reported to have quietly reminded him that the EU, like Germany, is a coalition of diverging interests that needs to be handled with skill and patience. One of the proposals is for a strengthened EU defence. This would include increasing the number of heavy-lift helicopters available for EU missions, expanding ground-based systems to monitor satellite activities and developing cross-border training among EU nations. Few countries would object to this. But there are worries, especially in Britain, that the real aim is to undercut Nato and offer EU defence as an alternative.
Other issues that France hopes to tackle include immigration, where Paris wants more harmonisation, and a deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Here again, however, Mr Sarkozy must tread carefully: industrial conditions are very different in the newer Eastern members, and a single sweeping proposal will not suit everyone.
None of this can be realised without some deal over Lisbon. Any French attempt to pretend that the Irish vote does not matter would render the other plans meaningless. Mr Sarkozy must set off on his travels, and listen. Above all, he must understand that those who argue that “no” meant “no” cannot be browbeaten into saying “yes”.
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