In Zimbabwe today, for the third time in five years, voters will cast ballots for a national election in an atmosphere of unconscionable corruption and intimidation. For all President Mugabe’s assurances of a newfound respect for democracy, polling stations have been set up under the watchful eye of armed militia gangs from his ruling ZANU (PF) party. Desperately needed food has been distributed free at rallies to its supporters and sold to others only at inflated prices. The names of up to a million dead voters have appeared on the electoral roll, and those would-be election observers who have questioned the validity of the poll as a result have been barred entry to the country.

Millions will, nonetheless, vote for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). An historic electoral upset is conceivable at the ballot box, but virtually inconceivable as a political reality. Tulip power is not so easily carried from Kyrgyzstan to Africa. Mr Mugabe still commands a loyal political base. He also controls southern Africa’s most efficient secret police. However today’s votes are cast, therefore, the wider world must prepare for a defiant declaration of victory by ZANU (PF). Such a declaration would hardly usher in a new era for the 81-year-old Mr Mugabe. Rather, it would mark the start of a dangerous endgame in which his opponents must mitigate the damage he is doing to his country and effect a quiet revolution in the way Zimbabweans eventually choose his successor.

Britain’s public role in these tasks is severely limited. Thanks largely to 20 years of virulently anti-British propaganda from Mr Mugabe’s regime, but also to new Labour’s failure to pursue a consistent or effective policy in response to his “Blair-baiting”, any official British criticism of Harare now plays directly into Mr Mugabe’s hands. This does not mean British-Zimbabwean diplomacy is doomed. Its efforts, like those of the rest of Europe, must simply — and urgently — be focused on Harare’s neighbours.

The MDC’s worst fear is not of electoral defeat, but of a fraudulent election result being swiftly endorsed by the rest of southern Africa. It is critically important that South Africa, in particular, be dissuaded from this course of culpable inaction. President Mbeki has so far connived at Mr Mugabe’s drift towards thug rule with a moral and political myopia that gravely threatens his status as the pre-eminent voice of sub-Saharan Africa. He must now, at the very least, use South Africa’s political and economic muscle to force Mr Mugabe to honour the principles of good governance to which Zimbabwe signed up at a regional summit in Mauritius last year. The United Nations must also take up the issue of Zimbabwean reform with a vigour it has so far failed to muster.

Hunger and disease threaten Zimbabwe as never before, yet its crisis was preventable. If the developed world’s grand plans for Africa are to have a chance of success, that crisis must be reversed. This will surely be the message of Zimbabwe’s voters. It cannot go unheeded.