Win a £1500 Raymond Weil watch
Seven years after they started, the Doha Round of trade talks broke up this week without agreement. That is a misfortune; it need not be a disaster. The failure will be measured in potential economic gains that will not now be realised, when the world economy is under pressure from the credit crunch and soaring commodity prices. But the costs can be mitigated if there is a renewed commitment by the developed countries to the principles of a liberal trading order.
The Doha Round has collapsed because of what might appear technical disputes over market access. Most notable among these are divisions about agriculture. Developing countries complain of the maintenance of farm subsidies in the rich world while the US accuses China and India of “blatant protectionism”.
In theory, an earlier, more sweeping offer by the EU and the US to cut agricultural subsidies might have given impetus to negotiations. On the other side, it is odd that China and India proved reluctant to reduce agricultural tariffs when their people face sharp increases in food costs. A deal might have been achieved. It will, at best, not now be attainable until after a new US president has taken office.
The strict financial costs of a failure to reach agreement have been variously assessed. A commonly cited figure is an estimate by the World Bank that removing agricultural tariffs and subsidies would boost exports globally by $300 billion a year by 2015. But the potential increments to growth from this deal are less significant than the political symbolism of its collapse.
The international trading order is among the most important achievements of postwar diplomacy. Cordell Hull, the US Secretary of State under Franklin Roosevelt, is regarded as the father of the multilateral trading system. He won the Nobel Peace Prize for his work in establishing the United Nations but he considered that an open trading regime was just as important for world peace.
The eight rounds of trade negotiations under the auspices of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade from the early 1960s reduced tariffs in developed countries to an average of less than 4 per cent. Many quotas and subsidies were lowered. Consumers in the developed countries benefited from cheaper goods. Poor countries that integrated themselves into the world economy were able to industrialise rapidly. The creation of the World Trade Organisation in 1995 and the generally successful working of its disputes mechanism have cemented these gains further.
The risk is that failure to advance multilateral negotiations in the Doha Round will spur the negotiation of bilateral or regional trading agreements as an alternative. These grant preferential access to markets. By definition, they create losers, namely the countries excluded from the deals. The message should be emphasised by European leaders, especially as Barack Obama has apparently not yet weaned himself off the traditional Democratic suspicion of free trade. Trade talks are about more than getting and spending. Trade liberalisation is not a zero-sum game, in which there must be relative losers as well as relative winners. It is a positive-sum venture in which global living standards rise - to the particular benefit of the developing world.
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports
We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?
Growing demand for energy, oil that is harder to reach and the rise of carbon dioxide emissions. We examine the energy challenge
With rail travel in Europe on the rise, we review the benefits of travelling by train
In this special section we explore new food trends to help improve your dinner party and impress guests
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
1998
£47,955
12 months for the price of 11 and a 5% discount.
Offer ends 31/11/09
Check your free Experian credit report before applying
Car Insurance
£100,000
Barnardos
UK
PwC’s Consulting practice helps businesses of all shapes and sizes work smarter and grow faster
PwC
£37,000
Department for Culture, Media and Sport
London
Currently £36,285
Department for Culture, Media and Sport
London
Moments from Battersea Park.
For sale with Winkworth
Find out about shared ownership.
See your free Experian credit report beforehand
Includes flights, accommodation with room upgrades, transfers city tours in Hong Kong and Bangkok.
PremierHolidays.co.uk
For your ultimate tailor-made ski holiday, click here
Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com
World Class Golf, Spa and preferential Beach Club. Private estate overlooking West Coast
Villas from £275 per night inclusive of Golf
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.