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Despite his spokesman's angry denials of “baseless and malicious” rumours, it is no longer a question of whether President Musharraf will resign, but when. Even as he was blustering about his readiness to face any impeachment proceedings in the Pakistani Parliament, his aides were trying frantically to negotiate a deal that would allow him to resign before the planned actions next week.
Mr Musharraf has done the State some service, and they know it. But those now commanding the ship of state are intent only on humiliating the man who seized power in 1999 and banned the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Muslim League, the two parties yoked in uneasy coalition. Nawaz Sharif, in particular, is determined to avenge his ousting as Prime Minister nine years ago. He has refused to grant Mr Musharraf immunity and is seeking a formal trial on the ground of his violating the Constitution.
The sooner that Pakistan moves beyond this debilitating cycle of vendetta politics, the better. Mr Musharraf is no longer the issue. Any remaining support he had has evaporated: Pakistan's four provincial assemblies have voted overwhelmingly against him, with even his former supporters abstaining. In Sindh, not a single legislator voted for him. The army, his former power base, has made it clear that it would not support a new state of emergency or a peremptory dissolution of Parliament. And the Americans, who have stood staunchly by the ally so crucial to them in the aftermath of 9/11, have said that they see the present wrangling as an “internal matter”.
His departure, however, marks only the start of a further round of infighting in a country that has appeared almost incapable of running a stable, responsible democracy. Opposition to Mr Musharraf was almost the only point of agreement between Mr Sharif and Asif Zardari, Benazir Bhutto's widower who now heads the PPP. Their differences are not only ideological; each represents Pakistan's two main provinces that are historic rivals for power, money and prestige: Punjab, where Mr Sharif has his stronghold, and Sindh, where the Bhuttos have exercised quasi-feudal sovereignty. Their mutual animosity is intense, and within weeks of forming a coalition, they fell out over how the 60 judges dismissed by Mr Musharraf should be returned to office.
Two issues will now stir further disagreement: who should succeed Mr Musharraf, and what should be his role. Mr Zardari, confident that his party won more of the vote, wants the post himself. Mr Sharif's supporter would never agree. A compromise candidate is hardly in sight. Nor is it clear whether he should be a figurehead or hold defined political responsibilities. A parliamentary system is hardly compatible with an executive president. But agreement on the necessary constitutional changes looks unattainable.
Pakistan, meanwhile, continues on its downward path. With inflation running at 25 per cent, the economy is a shambles. Investors are fleeing Pakistan, and the rupee has fallen to a record low against the dollar. Separatists, Islamists and extremists are gaining ground in the restless border areas, and Islamabad now seems incapable of imposing its authority. Twenty years after the suspicious death of Zia ul-Haq, the former military ruler, feuding politicians are again set to squander their chances. A restless army is waiting.
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